Bradley Frye

SS Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 25 R/R 6'2" / 185 lbs A HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	ASD	50	.159/.245/.182	0	3	-11	—	.133/.204/.156
2026	24	A+/ASD	420	.275/.375/.382	5	30	75	—	.238/.316/.325
2027PROJMLE	25	MLBSD	380	.201/.274/.286	4	9	60	-0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	26	MLBSD	72	.201/.274/.291	1	2	64	-0.0
2029PROJ42% MLB	27	MLBSD	113	.202/.276/.295	2	3	65	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Speed98

Z-Con%74

wOBA68

wRC+66

Whiff%66

ISO65

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsNick Meyer (age 24) · Dylan Neuse (age 24) · Chris Roller (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .272 / .283

PA210

HR2

SB5

K%27

BB%8

ISO85

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 31 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT31

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED58

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	23	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	50	44	7	1	0	0	3	15	2	3	0	159	245	182	427	23	241	30	6	206	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	70	61	17	3	1	2	8	20	0	5	0	279	362	459	821	180	385	29	11	359	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	350	292	80	12	3	3	41	75	8	25	7	274	377	366	744	92	352	21	12	335	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	50	45	6	1	0	0	2	21	2	3	0	133	204	156	360	22	217	42	4	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	70	63	15	2	1	2	6	25	0	5	0	238	304	397	701	159	336	36	9	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	350	306	73	10	3	2	28	102	8	25	7	239	319	310	629	72	327	29	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	50	45	6	1	0	0	2	21	2	3	0	133	204	156	360	22	250	42	4	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	50	44	7	1	0	0	3	15	2	3	0	159	245	182	427	23	241	30	6	206	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	420	370	87	12	4	4	33	127	8	30	7	235	311	322	633	86	340	30	8	278	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A RAW	2 teams	—	420	353	97	15	4	5	49	95	8	30	7	275	375	382	757	108	357	23	12	339	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	50	46	6	1	0	0	2	21	2	3	0	130	204	152	356	22	217	42	4	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	420	376	87	12	4	4	33	127	8	30	7	231	311	316	628	85	329	30	8	278	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	50	46	6	1	0	0	2	21	2	3	0	130	204	152	356	22	217	42	4	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	420	376	87	12	4	4	33	127	8	30	7	231	311	316	628	85	329	30	8	278	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SD	0%	380	342	69	13	2	4	30	104	5	9	2	201	274	286	560	85	273	27	8	257	60	-18	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SD	30%	239	215	43	8	1	3	19	65	3	6	1	204	277	296	574	92	274	27	8	262	64	-10	+1	+0	+3	+5	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	SD	42%	271	245	51	9	2	4	21	73	3	6	1	205	279	300	578	94	275	27	8	264	65	-11	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	SD	48%	290	262	54	10	2	4	23	79	3	6	2	206	279	301	579	95	275	27	8	264	65	-12	+0	-1	+3	+6	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	SD	49%	292	264	55	10	2	4	23	79	3	6	2	205	278	300	578	95	275	27	8	264	65	-12	+0	-1	+3	+6	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	SD	30%	72	65	12	2	0	1	6	20	1	2	0	201	274	291	566	91	269	28	8	259	64	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	SD	42%	113	102	22	4	1	2	9	31	1	3	1	202	276	295	570	93	270	27	8	261	65	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	SD	48%	138	124	25	4	1	2	11	37	2	3	1	202	276	296	571	93	270	27	8	261	65	-6	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	SD	49%	144	130	27	5	1	2	11	39	2	3	1	202	275	295	571	93	270	27	8	261	65	-6	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	467	421	86	15	3	7	37	127	6	11	3	204	278	304	582	100	272	27	8	261	64	-20	+1	-1	+5	+10	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	120	21	4	10	51	177	8	15	4	205	277	305	583	101	273	27	8	261	64	-27	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	1772	1590	334	57	12	21	137	502	25	62	14	210	283	301	584	91	291	28	8	263	64	-56	+3	-2	+14	+28	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	123	21	4	8	50	184	9	23	5	211	283	302	585	91	291	28	8	263	64	-28	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 350 PAwOBA .331 → .279 (−53)K% 21.4% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.43%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	29.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.71%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.980	7.92%
HBP% /PA	2.29%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	1.75%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.050	×0.980	27.05%
Doubles /BIP	5.53%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×0.980	4.72%
Triples /BIP	1.38%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.050	×0.980	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	1.38%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.980	1.08%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .331 → .279; ISO .092 → .077; BABIP .352 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 70 PAwOBA .350 → .276 (−74)K% 28.6% → 36.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.57%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	36.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.43%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.988	8.02%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.83%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.988	24.39%
Doubles /BIP	7.32%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×0.988	5.86%
Triples /BIP	2.44%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×0.988	2.05%
Home runs /BIP	4.88%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.988	3.86%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .350 → .276; ISO .180 → .138; BABIP .385 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 50 PAwOBA .201 → .152 (−48)K% 30.0% → 42.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.00%	÷0.956	×1.360	—	—	42.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.00%	÷0.952	×0.690	—	×0.990	4.31%
HBP% /PA	4.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	3.09%
Singles /BIP	20.69%	÷0.989	×0.920	—	×0.990	19.06%
Doubles /BIP	3.45%	÷1.062	×0.830	—	×0.990	2.67%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.936	×0.800	—	×0.990	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .201 → .152; ISO .023 → .015; BABIP .241 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#2Tim Bogar'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,710 PA	2.6	1,710	24	13	217*	284*	324*	+11	+37	2.1	2.9
/162	664	9	5	+4.2	+14.4	0.8	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Al Weis'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,763 PA	2.7	1,763	7	55	223*	283*	300*	+10	+9	-0.2	1.3
/162	664	3	21	+3.8	+3.5	-0.1	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.0	676	8	15	205	275	297	+7	+9	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	8	15	+7.1	+8.8	-0.1	pk7: 0
#5David Howard'91-'99 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	11	23	220*	280*	301*	+10	+23	-1.6	-0.8
/162	664	4	9	+3.7	+8.5	-0.6	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bradley Frye (OGILVIE)	25	31	33	58	48	199/272/283	84	273	2	5	27%	8%	60	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	36	36→40	52→50	41	177/235/240	63	250	4	15	30%	6%	35	-3.4	215/285/296	81	280	8	14	24%	8%	67	-1.1	210/285/284	74	270	8	16	24%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	178/253/255	77	262	8	14	33%	8%	47	-2.6	205/278/293	88	286	6	12	28%	9%	64	-1.3	205/285/293	88	279	5	13	26%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Chris Roller 2022 · AA	25	40	39→45	53→55	40	192/250/279	87	274	5	16	31%	6%	50	-2.3	189/266/297	108	285	10	16	35%	8%	61	-1.5	173/257/287	114	273	12	16	38%	8%	54	-1.2
✕Max George 2021 · A	25	40→39	41→45	54→55	43	195/279/295	99	285	9	20	32%	8%	65	-1.2	193/280/317	124	321	13	15	41%	8%	72	-0.7	149/258/287	138	249	17	20	43%	10%	55	-0.8
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	37	42→40	49→50	48	187/274/289	103	259	10	13	30%	10%	63	-1.4	200/295/298	98	281	9	11	29%	10%	72	-0.7	182/296/265	82	256	7	11	28%	12%	63	-0.8
✕Matt Whatley 2021 · A	25	39→37	38→40	52→50	46	189/263/263	75	259	5	15	28%	8%	52	-2.2	193/256/274	81	275	8	10	31%	7%	51	-2.2	172/233/253	81	229	10	8	29%	6%	36	-1.2
✕Rowdey Jordan 2024 · AA	25	42	43→45	54→55	46	205/281/318	113	276	10	20	28%	8%	71	-0.8	207/267/318	111	293	11	18	31%	7%	65	-1.2	196/251/297	102	279	11	20	33%	6%	52	-1.2
✕Andres Sosa 2023 · A	25	40	42→40	52→45	49	192/302/304	112	274	9	9	30%	10%	78	-0.3	199/288/291	92	288	7	7	31%	8%	68	-1.0	185/275/262	76	274	5	4	31%	7%	55	-0.7
✕Chris Rotondo 2024 · A	25	44→40	41→45	57→50	45	204/294/311	108	309	7	12	33%	9%	75	-0.5	207/276/301	94	329	8	13	37%	7%	65	-1.2	194/256/265	71	324	7	16	40%	6%	46	-1.6
✕Logan Warmoth 2021 · AA	25	44→40	37→40	53→55	41	200/269/277	76	312	4	13	34%	7%	57	-1.8	197/277/296	99	311	9	20	36%	8%	65	-1.2	187/271/285	97	288	9	24	35%	8%	58	-1.1
✕J.T. Arruda 2023 · A	25	42	40	56→55	47	200/275/295	95	290	7	17	31%	9%	63	-1.4	204/275/290	86	289	6	20	29%	8%	62	-1.4	207/270/292	85	284	7	22	28%	7%	58	-1.0
✕Casio Grider 2013 · A	25	40→39	38→40	56→55	37	192/248/279	87	281	4	18	32%	5%	49	-2.4	198/253/282	84	300	6	23	34%	5%	51	-2.2	188/244/265	77	288	5	30	34%	5%	41	-1.5
✕Jack Winkler 2024 · AA	25	43→41	39→40	50→55	44	208/271/297	89	274	7	14	26%	7%	61	-1.5	188/250/281	93	257	9	22	29%	6%	51	-2.3	172/236/263	91	235	10	24	30%	6%	39	-2.2
✕JJ Schwarz 2021 · A	25	38	40→45	48→30	43	189/253/279	90	264	9	6	31%	7%	51	-2.2	212/279/326	114	294	12	3	30%	8%	72	-0.7	205/275/317	113	280	13	1	30%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Nate Eaton 2022 · A	25	40→49	40→45	55→60	43	194/260/285	90	269	7	19	29%	7%	55	-1.9	215/270/336	121	283	13	28	28%	6%	70	-0.8	210/267/331	121	274	12	27	27%	6%	67	-0.8
✕Juan Zabala 2024 · AA	25	43	41→40	50	43	211/273/309	98	286	9	16	29%	7%	65	-1.2	207/260/302	95	297	9	10	31%	6%	59	-1.7	186/233/256	70	271	7	4	32%	5%	35	-1.2
✕Tyler Stubblefield 2013 · A	25	42	38→45	51→50	46	199/275/280	82	259	6	12	24%	7%	60	-1.6	213/267/316	103	260	8	9	21%	6%	65	-1.2	211/249/324	113	245	8	5	17%	4%	55	-0.8
✕Andrés Alvarez 2022 · A	25	45→32	43→45	51→50	41	218/275/328	110	304	10	15	31%	7%	71	-0.8	198/267/319	121	282	14	14	33%	8%	66	-1.1	186/258/301	115	262	13	13	33%	8%	57	-1.1
✕Tony Bullard 2024 · A	24	40	44→40	52→50	43	202/263/315	113	267	12	12	29%	7%	63	-1.3	214/271/319	105	285	9	12	27%	6%	68	-1.0	210/267/311	102	278	9	13	27%	6%	61	-0.5
✕Maverick Handley 2022 · A	24	39	41→40	53→50	40	186/267/286	100	308	9	16	39%	8%	59	-1.6	201/292/301	100	281	10	12	30%	9%	72	-0.7	195/293/283	88	266	8	10	27%	9%	66	-0.6

Bradley Frye

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps