Jayden Dubanewicz
P
Carolina Mudcats
+0.7
WAR
Age 20
RHP
6'3" / 160 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 3.0 · 2032
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.6%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%12.2%
IP82
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.0peak
2032
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 19 | 11 | 82 | 339 | 64 | 19 | 4 | 13.6% | 6.8% | 1.3% | 2.40 | 3.53 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 71 | 29 | 10 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 86 | 365 | 77 | 29 | 10 | 21.2% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.23 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 113 | 476 | 105 | 36 | 13 | 22.1% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.07 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 137 | 578 | 132 | 42 | 15 | 22.8% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 3.95 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 28 | 28 | 156 | 660 | 154 | 47 | 18 | 23.4% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.87 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 31 | 31 | 170 | 719 | 171 | 50 | 19 | 23.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 3.81 | +2.9 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 32 | 32 | 177 | 749 | 179 | 52 | 20 | 23.9% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 3.82 | 3.79 | +3.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 32 | 32 | 176 | 743 | 178 | 52 | 20 | 24.0% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 3.81 | 3.80 | +3.0 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 32 | 32 | 173 | 732 | 175 | 51 | 20 | 23.9% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.83 | +2.9 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 31 | 31 | 170 | 716 | 170 | 51 | 20 | 23.8% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 3.85 | 3.87 | +2.7 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 30 | 30 | 164 | 694 | 164 | 50 | 19 | 23.6% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 3.93 | +2.6 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 29 | 29 | 159 | 670 | 156 | 49 | 19 | 23.4% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 4.01 | +2.3 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 28 | 28 | 152 | 643 | 148 | 48 | 19 | 23.1% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.09 | +2.1 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 145 | 614 | 140 | 47 | 19 | 22.8% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.19 | +1.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 19 | 11 | 82 | 339 | 46 | 23 | 4 | 13.6% | 6.8% | 1.3% | 2.40 | 3.53 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 27 | 200 | 823 | 112 | 56 | 10 | 13.6% | 6.8% | 1.3% | 2.40 | 3.53 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jayden Dubanewicz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.06 | 22.2% | 14.5% | 336 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| David Perez R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 90 |
| Osmer Morales R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .319 | 4.56 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 345 | +0.26 | 3.14 | 429 | 88 |
| Jaden Hamm R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.82 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .273 | 4.78 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 83 | +0.96 | 3.82 | 182 | 88 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.32 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .330 | 4.96 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 212 | +0.64 | 4.32 | 292 | 87 |
| Kyle Scott R 2028 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.19 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.94 | 15.9% | 4.3% | 42 | -0.25 | 3.94 | 138 | 87 |
| Cedric De Grandpre R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.38 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 1.7% | .327 | 4.25 | 21.5% | 2.2% | 65 | +0.87 | 3.38 | 151 | 87 |
| Austin Cates R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 87 |
| Nick Davila R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.89 | 18.0% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.07 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 196 | +0.18 | 3.46 | 341 | 87 |
| Jose Almonte R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.0% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .293 | 4.01 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 139 | -0.10 | 4.01 | 279 | 87 |
| Javi Rivera R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.72 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 186 | 87 |
| Michael Forret R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 2.2% | .302 | 2.67 | 25.1% | 16.6% | 74 | -1.32 | 2.67 | 174 | 87 |
| Mason Hickman R 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 5.45 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 181 | +0.72 | 4.73 | 300 | 86 |
| Mason Englert R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.43 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .311 | 4.51 | 22.3% | 15.1% | 249 | +1.08 | 2.73 | 397 | 86 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2028 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.29 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .293 | 3.81 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 69 | -0.48 | 3.51 | 157 | 86 |
| Blake Money R 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.53 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 2.4% | .281 | 4.05 | 23.6% | 14.1% | 121 | +0.52 | 3.53 | 224 | 86 |
| Jack Wenninger R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.25 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.90 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 136 | -0.35 | 3.90 | 251 | 86 |
| David Festa R 2028 · 3.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.66 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.74 | 26.6% | 17.0% | 302 | +0.08 | 3.66 | 405 | 86 |
| Blake Adams R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.41 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.7% | .333 | 3.91 | 18.4% | 12.0% | 217 | +0.50 | 3.36 | 301 | 86 |
| Cory Lewis R 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.42 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .267 | 5.08 | 22.0% | 5.4% | 139 | +1.66 | 3.42 | 240 | 86 |
| Griffin Canning R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.13 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 225 | +0.43 | 3.65 | 705 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.9 | $27M | +$26M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +3.0 | $29M | +$28M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +3.0 | $30M | +$29M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +2.9 | $29M | +$24M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $9M | +2.7 | $28M | +$19M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $17M | $143M | +$126M | ||