Jayden Dubanewicz

P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 160 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2034

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#286ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	MIX2 levels	19	11	82	2.40	2.87	18.9%	5.6%	—	K 13.6% · BB 6.8% · FIP 3.51
2026	20	MIX3 levels	20	15	80	4.41	3.95	23.3%	9.4%	—	K 17.7% · BB 11.1% · FIP 5.16
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIL	—	—	0	4.90	4.90	17.0%	9.2%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIL	5	5	32	4.79	4.71	19.0%	8.7%	0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIL	8	8	47	4.63	4.55	20.3%	8.4%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 9.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%

CompsJohnathan Harmon (age 22) · Tanner Hall (age 22) · Tyler McKay (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%17.0%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$10M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	82	339	64	19	4	58%	4.3	13.6%	6.8%	6.8%	1.3%	2.40	3.51	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	82	339	64	19	4	58%	4.3	13.6%	6.8%	6.8%	1.3%	2.40	3.51	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	11	82	339	64	19	4	58%	4.3	18.9%	5.6%	13.3%	1.2%	2.40	2.87	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	15	80	339	79	32	10	75%	4.0	17.7%	11.1%	6.6%	3.9%	4.41	5.16	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	15	80	339	79	32	10	75%	4.0	17.7%	11.1%	6.6%	3.9%	4.41	5.16	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	15	80	339	79	32	10	75%	4.0	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	2.9%	4.41	3.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.0%	9.2%	7.8%	3.1%	4.90	4.90	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	64	271	52	24	8	100%	5.8	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	3.0%	4.71	4.63	+0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	64	271	55	23	8	100%	5.8	20.3%	8.4%	11.8%	3.0%	4.55	4.47	+0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	64	271	57	22	8	100%	5.8	20.9%	8.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.36	+0.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	59	250	53	20	7	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	2.9%	4.36	4.31	+0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	59	251	54	20	7	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.0%	13.5%	2.9%	4.31	4.28	+0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	58	245	53	20	7	100%	5.8	21.5%	8.1%	13.4%	3.0%	4.32	4.32	+0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	61	256	60	19	8	100%	6.1	23.4%	7.4%	15.9%	3.1%	4.21	4.14	+0.9
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	56	237	55	18	8	100%	6.2	23.1%	7.7%	15.5%	3.2%	4.24	4.27	+0.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	51	214	49	17	7	100%	6.3	22.8%	8.0%	14.8%	3.4%	4.36	4.45	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	45	189	42	16	7	100%	6.4	22.4%	8.3%	14.1%	3.7%	4.53	4.65	+0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	39	165	36	14	6	100%	5.6	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	3.9%	4.74	4.87	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	32	135	26	12	4	100%	6.4	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	3.2%	4.79	4.71	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	47	198	40	17	6	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.4%	11.8%	3.1%	4.63	4.55	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	53	224	47	18	7	100%	5.9	20.9%	8.2%	12.7%	3.1%	4.51	4.44	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	52	220	47	18	7	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	3.1%	4.44	4.39	+0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	54	228	49	18	7	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.0%	13.5%	3.1%	4.39	4.36	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	54	228	49	18	7	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.1%	13.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.40	+0.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	57	241	56	18	8	100%	5.7	23.4%	7.4%	15.9%	3.2%	4.29	4.22	+0.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	53	224	52	17	8	100%	5.9	23.1%	7.7%	15.5%	3.4%	4.33	4.36	+0.7
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	48	203	46	16	7	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.0%	14.8%	3.6%	4.45	4.54	+0.5
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	43	182	41	15	7	100%	6.1	22.4%	8.3%	14.1%	3.8%	4.63	4.75	+0.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	37	156	34	14	6	100%	6.2	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	4.1%	4.85	4.98	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	530	2239	487	181	74	100%	6.0	21.7%	8.1%	13.7%	3.3%	4.49	4.11	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	184	68	28	100%	6.0	21.7%	8.1%	13.7%	3.3%	4.49	4.11	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		39	26	162	678	106	61	18	67%	4.2	15.6%	8.9%	6.7%	2.6%	3.39	4.33	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	32	200	837	131	75	22	67%	4.2	15.6%	8.9%	6.7%	2.6%	3.39	4.33	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 60 IPFIP 4.13 → 5.13 (+1.01)K% 21.2% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.18%	—	×0.770	16.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.63%	—	×1.150	9.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.14%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.92%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.13 → 5.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AWilson Warbirds · 16 IPFIP 3.78 → 5.25 (+1.46)K% 30.9% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.88%	—	×0.740	22.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.24%	—	×1.180	15.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.82%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.78 → 5.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 59 IPFIP 3.15 → 3.70 (+0.55)K% 17.2% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.15%	—	×0.740	12.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.60%	—	×1.180	5.43%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷1.214	×1.300	1.79%

Result: FIP 3.15 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Brewers · 24 IPFIP 2.17 → 3.05 (+0.87)K% 23.0% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.00%	—	×0.680	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.250	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.971	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.17 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jayden Dubanewicz (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.49	20.1%	11.6%	193	-0.41	—	—	—
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	87
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	87
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	87
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	87
Shane Davis R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP-	5.21	17.3%	9.8%	4.2%	.313	4.19	20.9%	6.7%	55	-1.02	4.19	129	86
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	86
Hansel Paulino R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	21	SP-	4.38	15.8%	7.5%	3.0%	.302	4.45	18.5%	10.7%	18	+0.07	2.98	156	85
Andrew Cabezas R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	16.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.210	4.70	16.7%	6.9%	185	+0.11	4.16	300	85
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	84
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	84
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	84
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	84
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	84
Jesus Lugo R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP-	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	6.08	19.8%	10.5%	45	+2.29	3.79	113	84
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	84
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	84
Kyle Davies R 2005 · 4.27 FIP	21	SP-	4.27	15.4%	10.9%	2.0%	.311	4.79	15.5%	5.6%	312	+0.52	3.58	921	83
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	83
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	83
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	56	21.2%	8.2%	1.21	4.46
Russ Springer ('10)	4.3	66	20.9%	9.4%	1.27	4.52
Eddie Guardado ('09)	4.7	63	19.9%	8.7%	1.31	4.31
Dan Wheeler ('12)	3.2	58	20.7%	7.2%	1.25	3.98
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*
Mark Guthrie ('89-'03, 8 WAR*)	4.9	65	22.8%*	8.5%*	1.07*	4.01*
Tom Niedenfuer ('81-'90, 8 WAR*)	3.3	65	23.1%*	8.1%*	1.19*	3.80*