Jayden Dubanewicz P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 160 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.4 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 58 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108
ERA4.75
FIP4.75
K%14.4%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%6.7%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP
K: -2.7 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-3KBB: -0.2 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-0BBCONTACT: -3.2 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-3CONTACTSTAM: +14.2 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+14STAMTotal WAR: +0.86 (105 IP)+0.9WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.40.60.70.70.70.70.60.4+$24M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP—45
STUF3045
CTRL6060
CMD4040
K†3050
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.7$2M+$1M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.7$2M+$1M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.7$2M+$1M
2033Arb-1$2M+0.7$2M+$0.6M
2034Arb-2$3M+0.6$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2035Arb-3$7M+0.4$0.8M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $5M $10M +$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202519MIX2 levels1911823396419458%4.313.6%6.8%6.8%1.1%2.403.40—
202519MIX2 levels1911823396419458%4.318.9%5.6%13.3%1.2%2.402.87—
▸ 2026 Season
202620A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers1210471974820483%3.918.4%12.2%6.1%2.8%3.614.64-0.1
ROS20MLBMIL12125824335197100%4.814.4%7.8%6.7%2.8%4.754.75-0.1
ROS20MLBMIL——0——————14.4%7.8%6.7%2.7%4.724.72—
2026 TOT20MLBMIL——105440833911——18.9%8.8%10.1%2.4%4.244.70+0.9
2026 FULL20MLBMIL——01000——14.4%7.8%6.7%2.7%4.724.34+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202721MLBMIL10106025542207100%6.016.5%7.7%8.8%2.7%4.624.55+0.0
202822MLBMIL11116426849207100%5.818.4%7.4%11.0%2.7%4.454.34+0.2
202923MLBMIL11116627854207100%6.019.5%7.2%12.3%2.6%4.304.20+0.4
203024MLBMIL11116828557207100%6.120.2%7.0%13.1%2.6%4.194.11+0.5
203125MLBMIL12126828859208100%5.720.5%6.9%13.7%2.6%4.114.05+0.5
203226MLBMIL11116828860208100%6.220.7%6.9%13.9%2.6%4.064.03+0.6
203327MLBMIL11116728459208100%6.120.7%6.9%13.8%2.7%4.074.07+0.5
203428MLBMIL11116527657208100%5.920.6%7.1%13.5%2.8%4.124.15+0.4
202721MLBMIL553012721103100%6.016.5%7.7%8.8%2.7%4.594.52+0.0
202822MLBMIL884619436145100%5.818.4%7.4%11.0%2.6%4.424.31+0.1
202923MLBMIL995623646176100%6.219.5%7.2%12.3%2.6%4.274.17+0.2
203024MLBMIL10106025351187100%6.020.2%7.0%13.1%2.6%4.164.08+0.3
203125MLBMIL11116326655187100%5.720.5%6.9%13.7%2.6%4.084.02+0.4
203226MLBMIL11116427056197100%5.820.7%6.9%13.9%2.6%4.034.00+0.5
203327MLBMIL11116427056197100%5.820.7%6.9%13.8%2.6%4.044.04+0.4
203428MLBMIL10106226254197100%6.220.6%7.1%13.5%2.7%4.094.12+0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—7575445187737413349100%5.919.9%7.1%12.8%2.6%4.173.75+8.6
/ 200 IP—34342008441686022100%6.019.9%7.1%12.8%2.6%4.173.75+3.9
Career—31211305368247968%4.215.3%8.8%6.6%1.7%2.853.86+2.3
/ 200 IP—4832200827127731468%4.215.3%8.8%6.6%1.7%2.853.86+3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Jayden Dubanewicz (OGILVIE) —— 4.75 14.4%7.8%2.8%— 4.36 18.2%10.7%190 -0.39 ———
Cale Lansville R 2027 · 3.95 FIP 21 SP- 3.95 15.1%7.7%2.1%.325 5.03 12.8%0.1%38 +1.08 3.95 113 90
Osman Gutierrez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP 20 SP- 4.23 13.6%9.1%2.1%.322 5.29 14.6%1.7%143 +1.06 4.23 189 87
Heribert Garcia R 2025 · 4.60 FIP 19 SP- 4.60 13.1%6.0%3.4%.301 4.87 16.5%9.8%123 +0.27 2.72 243 86
Alejandro Manzano R 2026 · 5.12 FIP 20 SP- 5.12 14.8%8.6%4.0%.347 4.69 15.6%6.5%199 -0.43 4.15 269 86
Abel Duarte R 2027 · 4.84 FIP 21 SP- 4.84 12.5%10.3%2.7%.306 3.93 13.9%6.7%79 -0.91 3.19 127 86
Zach Lewis R 2028 · 3.57 FIP 22 SP- 3.57 14.3%7.6%1.3%.286 4.10 16.3%5.2%213 +0.53 3.57 266 85
Argenis Blanco R 2026 · 3.69 FIP 20 SP- 3.69 13.1%8.5%1.1%.308 — ——— — 2.90 118 85
TJ Nichols R 2028 · 3.96 FIP 22 SP- 3.96 17.0%9.0%2.1%.310 5.17 21.9%14.5%174 +1.21 3.96 245 85
Tanner Jones R 2028 · 3.80 FIP 22 SP- 3.80 14.8%6.9%2.0%.317 4.83 13.4%5.6%68 +1.03 3.80 108 85
Argenis Romano R 2026 · 4.32 FIP 20 SP- 4.32 11.5%7.5%2.2%.287 4.85 14.9%7.8%86 +0.53 3.54 144 85
Jeremiah Burke R 2027 · 4.88 FIP 21 SP- 4.88 11.9%9.3%2.9%.330 3.83 15.7%8.1%34 -1.05 3.83 137 85
Winston Nicacio R 2026 · 4.62 FIP 20 SP- 4.62 11.9%9.0%2.5%.325 4.33 14.4%7.0%64 -0.29 1.96 170 85
Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP 20 SP- 4.47 16.4%11.3%2.4%.298 5.25 10.1%-1.9%96 +0.78 3.88 148 85
Wellington Caceres R 2026 · 4.16 FIP 20 SP- 4.16 13.9%6.4%2.6%.306 5.82 13.1%2.1%68 +1.66 4.16 121 84
Ubert Mejias R 2028 · 3.71 FIP 22 SP- 3.71 14.2%7.9%1.5%.326 4.41 13.8%8.0%244 +0.70 3.62 306 84
Yonael Dominguez R 2026 · 4.07 FIP 20 SP- 4.07 13.2%8.4%1.8%.224 — ——— — 3.16 140 84
Pedro Barrios R 2025 · 4.31 FIP 19 SP 4.31 14.7%6.7%2.9%.292 — ——— — 3.83 159 84
Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 4.85 FIP 20 SP- 4.85 15.5%6.8%4.0%.221 6.02 13.9%0.2%139 +1.17 4.85 226 84
Nick Gardewine R 2027 · 3.99 FIP 21 SP- 3.99 14.4%6.3%2.4%.334 3.06 24.5%16.4%104 -0.93 2.56 200 83
Henry Valencio R 2026 · 4.15 FIP 20 SP- 4.15 16.4%10.6%2.0%.293 5.11 11.9%-11.9%14 +0.96 3.48 136 83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION96519.2%7.2%1.034.28
Nick Wittgren ('23)84121.6%7.0%1.154.04
Jesse Chavez ('24)98222.2%6.9%1.263.94
Tyler Duffey ('22)85923.0%6.8%1.254.57
Shane Greene ('21)75621.4%8.5%1.164.67
Bryan Shaw ('23)86421.4%9.4%1.124.19
Luis Cessa ('23)85318.3%7.8%1.404.43