Jayden Dubanewicz

Jayden Dubanewicz P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 160 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.8 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%14.4%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF3045

CTRL6060

CMD4040

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$6M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$12M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	82	339	64	19	4	58%	4.3	13.6%	6.8%	6.8%	1.3%	2.40	3.51	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	82	339	64	19	4	58%	4.3	13.6%	6.8%	6.8%	1.3%	2.40	3.51	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	11	82	339	64	19	4	58%	4.3	18.9%	5.6%	13.3%	1.2%	2.40	2.87	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	20	15	80	339	79	32	10	75%	4.0	17.7%	11.1%	6.6%	3.9%	4.41	5.16	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	20	15	80	339	79	32	10	75%	4.0	17.7%	11.1%	6.6%	3.9%	4.41	5.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	MIL	2	1	4	16	4	1	0	50%	2.0	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	0.0%	2.25	1.78	—
2026	20	A RAW	MIL	5	4	16	68	21	9	2	80%	3.2	30.9%	13.2%	17.6%	2.9%	2.25	3.78	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	MIL	13	10	60	255	54	22	8	77%	4.6	21.2%	8.6%	12.5%	3.1%	5.13	4.13	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	82	346	57	26	9	100%	5.9	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	2.7%	4.59	4.53	+0.4
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	86	363	66	25	10	100%	6.1	18.3%	7.0%	11.3%	2.7%	4.41	4.31	+0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	89	377	73	25	10	100%	5.9	19.4%	6.7%	12.6%	2.7%	4.26	4.17	+0.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	91	386	77	25	10	100%	6.1	20.0%	6.5%	13.5%	2.7%	4.15	4.08	+0.9
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	92	391	80	25	10	100%	6.2	20.4%	6.4%	14.0%	2.6%	4.07	4.02	+1.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	92	391	80	25	10	100%	6.2	20.6%	6.4%	14.2%	2.6%	4.03	4.00	+1.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	91	385	79	25	10	100%	6.1	20.6%	6.5%	14.1%	2.7%	4.03	4.03	+0.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	88	373	76	25	10	100%	5.9	20.5%	6.6%	13.9%	2.8%	4.08	4.12	+0.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	84	356	72	24	10	100%	6.0	20.2%	6.8%	13.4%	2.9%	4.18	4.25	+0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	79	335	73	21	11	100%	6.1	21.9%	6.3%	15.5%	3.1%	4.17	4.16	+0.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	74	312	67	21	10	100%	6.2	21.5%	6.7%	14.8%	3.4%	4.28	4.36	+0.5
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	68	289	61	20	10	100%	6.2	21.0%	7.1%	13.9%	3.6%	4.46	4.58	+0.3
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	63	265	54	20	10	100%	6.3	20.5%	7.5%	13.0%	3.9%	4.69	4.84	+0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	40	169	28	12	5	100%	5.7	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	2.9%	4.67	4.61	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	63	266	49	19	8	100%	6.3	18.3%	7.0%	11.3%	2.8%	4.48	4.38	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	75	317	61	21	9	100%	6.2	19.4%	6.7%	12.6%	2.8%	4.33	4.24	+0.6
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	81	342	68	22	10	100%	6.2	20.0%	6.5%	13.5%	2.8%	4.22	4.15	+0.8
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	85	359	73	23	10	100%	6.1	20.4%	6.4%	14.0%	2.8%	4.14	4.09	+0.9
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	86	363	75	23	10	100%	6.1	20.6%	6.4%	14.2%	2.8%	4.10	4.07	+0.9
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	87	367	76	24	10	100%	6.2	20.6%	6.5%	14.1%	2.8%	4.10	4.10	+0.9
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	84	355	73	23	10	100%	6.0	20.5%	6.6%	13.9%	2.9%	4.16	4.20	+0.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	80	338	68	23	10	100%	6.2	20.2%	6.8%	13.4%	3.1%	4.26	4.33	+0.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	75	317	69	20	10	100%	6.2	21.9%	6.3%	15.5%	3.3%	4.26	4.25	+0.7
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	70	296	63	20	10	100%	5.8	21.5%	6.7%	14.8%	3.5%	4.37	4.45	+0.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	65	274	58	19	10	100%	5.9	21.0%	7.1%	13.9%	3.8%	4.56	4.68	+0.2
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	60	253	52	19	10	100%	6.0	20.5%	7.5%	13.0%	4.1%	4.80	4.95	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		157	157	952	4020	814	270	124	100%	6.1	20.2%	6.7%	13.5%	3.1%	4.31	3.93	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	171	57	26	100%	6.0	20.2%	6.7%	13.5%	3.1%	4.31	3.93	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		39	26	162	678	106	61	18	67%	4.2	15.6%	8.9%	6.7%	2.6%	3.39	4.33	+8.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	32	200	837	131	75	22	67%	4.2	15.6%	8.9%	6.7%	2.6%	3.39	4.33	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jayden Dubanewicz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	14.4%	7.4%	2.8%	—	4.33	18.1%	11.1%	257	-0.40	—	—	—
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	87
Heribert Garcia R 2019 · 4.60 FIP	19	SP-	4.60	13.1%	6.0%	3.4%	.301	5.14	16.5%	9.8%	123	+0.54	2.72	243	87
Wellington Caceres R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	20	SP-	4.16	13.9%	6.4%	2.6%	.306	5.82	13.1%	2.1%	68	+1.66	4.16	121	86
Osman Gutierrez R 2015 · 4.23 FIP	20	SP-	4.23	13.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.322	5.15	14.6%	1.7%	143	+0.92	4.23	189	86
Argenis Romano R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	20	SP-	4.32	11.5%	7.5%	2.2%	.287	4.85	14.9%	7.8%	86	+0.53	3.54	144	86
Zach Lewis R 2017 · 3.57 FIP	22	SP-	3.57	14.3%	7.6%	1.3%	.286	4.17	16.3%	5.2%	213	+0.60	3.57	266	85
Pedro Garcia R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	20	SP-	4.69	15.5%	6.8%	3.7%	.221	5.80	13.9%	0.2%	139	+1.11	4.69	247	85
Argenis Blanco R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	20	SP-	3.69	13.1%	8.5%	1.1%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	118	85
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	85
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	84
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	84
Winston Nicacio R 2017 · 4.62 FIP	20	SP-	4.62	11.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.325	4.31	14.4%	7.0%	64	-0.31	1.96	170	84
Nick Gardewine R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	21	SP-	4.24	14.4%	6.3%	2.8%	.334	3.18	24.5%	16.4%	104	-1.06	2.62	200	84
Keiverson Ramírez R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	17	SP-	4.77	12.0%	5.9%	3.5%	.320	3.68	15.0%	6.1%	80	-1.09	2.96	120	84
Pedro Barrios R 2018 · 4.31 FIP	19	SP	4.31	14.7%	6.7%	2.9%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	159	84
Adam Oller R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP-	4.86	13.3%	4.8%	4.2%	.322	4.53	17.4%	9.0%	160	-0.33	3.47	670	84
Yonael Dominguez R 2022 · 4.07 FIP	20	SP-	4.07	13.2%	8.4%	1.8%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	140	84
Tommy Parsons R 2018 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	12.6%	5.4%	4.2%	.302	5.28	18.0%	12.5%	234	+0.24	4.82	501	83
Ubert Mejias R 2023 · 3.74 FIP	22	SP-	3.74	14.2%	7.9%	1.5%	.326	4.43	14.0%	8.0%	264	+0.69	3.74	326	83
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	81	19.8%	6.8%	1.13	4.27
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59