Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park. Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors. WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023
18
AMLE
Augusta GreenJackets
1
1
2
9
1
2
0
100%
2.0
11.1%
22.2%
-11.1%
0.0%
4.50
4.98
—
2023
18
ARAW
Augusta GreenJackets
1
1
2
9
1
2
0
100%
2.0
11.1%
22.2%
-11.1%
0.0%
4.50
5.10
—
2024
19
MIXMLE
2 levels
20
19
99
407
89
23
3
95%
5.0
16.2%
7.1%
9.1%
1.0%
3.18
3.18
—
2024
19
MIXMLE
2 levels
20
19
99
407
89
23
3
95%
5.0
16.2%
7.1%
9.1%
1.0%
3.18
3.18
—
2024
19
MIXRAW
2 levels
20
19
99
407
89
23
3
95%
5.0
21.9%
5.7%
16.2%
0.7%
3.18
2.39
—
2025
20
A+MLE
Rome Emperors
23
23
114
481
108
31
10
100%
4.9
17.3%
7.4%
9.9%
3.2%
3.40
4.32
—
2025
20
A+MLE
Rome Emperors
23
23
114
481
108
31
10
100%
4.9
17.3%
7.4%
9.9%
3.2%
3.40
4.32
—
2025
20
A+RAW
Rome Emperors
23
23
114
481
108
31
10
100%
4.9
22.5%
6.4%
16.0%
2.1%
3.40
3.16
—
2026
21
MIXMLE
2 levels
24
24
119
530
116
49
18
100%
5.0
18.1%
9.5%
8.5%
3.9%
5.43
4.91
—
2026
21
MIXMLE
2 levels
24
24
119
530
116
49
18
100%
5.0
18.1%
9.5%
8.5%
3.9%
5.43
4.91
—
2026
21
MIXRAW
2 levels
24
24
119
530
116
49
18
100%
5.0
21.9%
9.2%
12.6%
3.4%
5.43
4.35
—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027
22
MLB
ATL
27
27
139
587
106
46
20
100%
5.1
18.0%
7.9%
10.1%
3.5%
4.86
4.86
+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028
23
MLBMLE
ATL
27
27
144
610
120
45
21
100%
5.4
19.8%
7.4%
12.3%
3.4%
4.69
4.61
+0.5
2029
24
MLBMLE
ATL
26
26
148
625
130
45
21
100%
5.7
20.8%
7.2%
13.6%
3.3%
4.54
4.46
+0.8
2030
25
MLBMLE
ATL
26
26
150
633
136
45
21
100%
5.8
21.4%
7.1%
14.3%
3.3%
4.43
4.37
+0.9
2031
26
MLBMLE
ATL
25
25
150
633
137
45
21
100%
6.0
21.7%
7.1%
14.6%
3.3%
4.38
4.34
+1.0
2032
27
MLBMLE
ATL
25
25
148
624
135
44
21
100%
5.9
21.7%
7.1%
14.5%
3.3%
4.38
4.38
+0.9
2033
28
MLBMLE
ATL
24
24
143
605
130
44
21
100%
6.0
21.6%
7.3%
14.3%
3.4%
4.43
4.47
+0.7
2034
29
MLBMLE
ATL
23
23
137
578
123
43
21
100%
6.0
21.3%
7.5%
13.8%
3.6%
4.53
4.60
+0.5
2035
30
MLBMLE
ATL
21
21
129
543
114
42
21
100%
6.1
21.0%
7.8%
13.2%
3.8%
4.68
4.78
+0.2
2036
31
MLBMLE
ATL
20
20
120
507
104
41
20
100%
6.0
20.6%
8.2%
12.4%
4.0%
4.86
4.98
-0.1
2037
32
MLBMLE
ATL
18
18
111
469
94
40
20
100%
6.2
20.1%
8.6%
11.6%
4.3%
5.07
5.20
-0.4
2028
23
MLBCTX
ATL
13
13
72
304
60
23
10
100%
5.5
19.8%
7.4%
12.3%
3.4%
4.69
4.61
+0.2
2029
24
MLBCTX
ATL
19
19
104
439
91
32
15
100%
5.5
20.8%
7.2%
13.6%
3.3%
4.54
4.46
+0.5
2030
25
MLBCTX
ATL
21
21
122
515
110
36
17
100%
5.8
21.4%
7.1%
14.3%
3.3%
4.43
4.37
+0.8
2031
26
MLBCTX
ATL
22
22
131
553
120
39
18
100%
6.0
21.7%
7.1%
14.6%
3.3%
4.38
4.34
+0.9
2032
27
MLBCTX
ATL
22
22
134
566
123
40
19
100%
6.1
21.7%
7.1%
14.5%
3.3%
4.38
4.38
+0.8
2033
28
MLBCTX
ATL
22
22
132
557
120
41
19
100%
6.0
21.6%
7.3%
14.3%
3.4%
4.43
4.47
+0.7
2034
29
MLBCTX
ATL
21
21
127
536
114
40
19
100%
6.0
21.3%
7.5%
13.8%
3.6%
4.53
4.60
+0.4
2035
30
MLBCTX
ATL
20
20
121
511
107
40
19
100%
6.0
21.0%
7.8%
13.2%
3.8%
4.68
4.78
+0.2
2036
31
MLBCTX
ATL
19
19
114
481
99
39
19
100%
6.0
20.6%
8.2%
12.4%
4.0%
4.86
4.98
-0.1
2037
32
MLBCTX
ATL
18
18
105
443
89
38
19
100%
5.8
20.1%
8.6%
11.6%
4.3%
5.07
5.20
-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
RAW
197
197
1163
4911
1035
368
175
100%
5.9
21.1%
7.5%
13.6%
3.6%
4.58
4.23
+9.2
/ 200 IP
—
RAW
34
34
200
844
178
63
30
100%
5.9
21.1%
7.5%
13.6%
3.6%
4.58
4.23
+1.6
Career
—
MLE
68
67
334
1427
246
117
40
99%
4.9
17.2%
8.2%
9.0%
2.8%
4.07
4.22
+4.9
/ 200 IP
—
MLE
41
40
200
854
147
70
24
99%
4.9
17.2%
8.2%
9.0%
2.8%
4.07
4.22
+0.7
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.