Chris McMahon
P
Hartford Yard Goats
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 217 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 101
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
K%22.5%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP47
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 22 | 20 | 114 | 485 | 119 | 32 | 13 | 91% | 5.2 | 18.9% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.17 | 3.76 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 22 | 20 | 114 | 485 | 119 | 32 | 13 | 91% | 5.2 | 24.5% | 6.6% | 17.9% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 3.34 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 6 | 29 | 129 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 75% | 3.6 | 15.4% | 2.9% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 5.34 | 4.27 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 6 | 29 | 129 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 75% | 3.6 | 19.4% | 3.9% | 15.5% | 3.9% | 5.34 | 4.15 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 15 | 15 | 67 | 313 | 66 | 25 | 13 | 100% | 4.5 | 17.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 5.91 | 5.30 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 15 | 15 | 67 | 313 | 66 | 25 | 13 | 100% | 4.5 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 5.91 | 4.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 46 | 192 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | COL | 7 | 7 | 44 | 184 | 41 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.3% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | COL | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 38 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 3 | 3 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | COL | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | COL | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 12 | 69 | 292 | 65 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.28 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 81 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 45 | 41 | 210 | 927 | 165 | 68 | 31 | 91% | 4.7 | 17.8% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.35 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 39 | 200 | 883 | 157 | 65 | 29 | 91% | 4.7 | 17.8% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris McMahon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 22.5% | 9.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.64 | 22.3% | 12.8% | 130 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 78 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 78 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 78 |
| Connor Grey R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .286 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 104 | +0.44 | 2.81 | 461 | 77 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 76 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 76 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 75 |
| Markus Solbach R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 74 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 73 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 73 |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 73 |
| Bryan Evans R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 72 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 72 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.40 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 4.5% | .325 | 4.40 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 107 | -1.00 | 4.00 | 464 | 72 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 72 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .248 | 4.01 | 27.6% | 18.3% | 42 | -0.01 | 3.97 | 281 | 71 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 71 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 71 |
| Christian Scott R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.95 | 27.5% | 9.7% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 302 | 71 |
| Alex Williams R 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.23 | 17.7% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 322 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 44 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 1.27 | 4.54 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |