Leighton Finley

P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#661ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	22	18	101	4.47	3.23	23.4%	11.7%	—	K 16.8% · BB 13.5% · FIP 4.23
2027PROJ	23	MLBBOS	—	—	0	5.23	5.23	17.9%	14.0%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBBOS	9	9	52	4.97	4.88	19.3%	12.6%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBBOS	10	10	57	4.79	4.70	20.2%	11.7%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$1M2034Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsAdam Hill (age 22) · Zach Fruit (age 24) · Jesse Foppert (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%17.9%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%3.9%

Proj IP121

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	101	445	104	52	5	82%	4.6	16.8%	13.5%	3.3%	1.5%	4.47	4.23	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	101	445	104	52	5	82%	4.6	16.8%	13.5%	3.3%	1.5%	4.47	4.23	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	101	445	104	52	5	82%	4.6	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	1.1%	4.47	3.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.9%	14.0%	3.9%	2.7%	5.23	5.23	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	121	510	98	64	14	100%	5.5	19.3%	12.6%	6.8%	2.7%	5.01	4.92	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	86	361	73	42	10	100%	5.7	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	2.7%	4.83	4.74	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	83	350	72	40	10	100%	5.9	20.6%	11.4%	9.2%	2.7%	4.74	4.69	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	80	338	70	39	9	100%	6.2	20.6%	11.4%	9.2%	2.8%	4.72	4.71	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	76	321	66	37	9	100%	5.9	20.5%	11.6%	8.9%	2.9%	4.77	4.80	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	71	299	61	35	9	100%	5.9	20.2%	11.8%	8.5%	3.0%	4.86	4.93	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	64	272	54	33	9	100%	5.9	19.9%	12.1%	7.8%	3.2%	5.01	5.11	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	52	220	42	28	6	100%	5.8	19.3%	12.6%	6.8%	2.6%	4.97	4.88	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	57	241	49	28	6	100%	5.7	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	2.6%	4.79	4.70	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	66	279	57	32	7	100%	6.0	20.6%	11.4%	9.2%	2.7%	4.70	4.65	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	68	287	59	33	8	100%	6.2	20.6%	11.4%	9.2%	2.7%	4.68	4.67	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	68	287	59	33	8	100%	6.2	20.5%	11.6%	8.9%	2.8%	4.73	4.76	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	64	270	55	32	8	100%	5.8	20.2%	11.8%	8.5%	3.0%	4.82	4.89	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	59	249	50	30	8	100%	5.9	19.9%	12.1%	7.8%	3.2%	4.97	5.07	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	434	1831	370	215	51	100%	5.9	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	2.8%	4.80	4.42	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	171	99	24	100%	5.9	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	2.8%	4.80	4.42	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		22	18	101	445	75	60	7	82%	4.6	16.8%	13.5%	3.3%	1.5%	4.47	4.23	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	36	200	884	148	119	13	82%	4.6	16.8%	13.5%	3.3%	1.5%	4.47	4.23	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASalem RidgeYaks · 96 IPFIP 3.28 → 4.23 (+0.95)K% 22.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.66%	—	×0.740	16.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.45%	—	×1.180	13.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.17%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.52%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leighton Finley (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.80	19.9%	8.0%	289	-0.43	—	—	—
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	90
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	88
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	88
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	87
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	87
Carlos Hernandez R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	17.4%	15.7%	1.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	123	86
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	86
Casey Steward R 2024 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	17.4%	13.3%	1.4%	.270	4.85	15.1%	2.7%	88	+0.79	4.06	191	86
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	86
Chase Cohen R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.22	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.47	3.52	263	86
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	86
Tyler Woessner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP	4.10	16.4%	11.8%	1.6%	.307	5.27	17.8%	4.2%	76	+1.17	4.10	197	85
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	85
Shaddon Peavyhouse R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	24	SP	4.78	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.299	5.21	14.8%	2.5%	137	+0.43	4.43	270	85
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	85
Keyvius Sampson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	24	SP	4.10	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.55	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.45	4.10	316	85
Austin Brice R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.72	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.89	3.42	542	84
Angel Ventura R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP-	4.28	17.9%	10.9%	2.4%	.285	4.66	14.8%	4.8%	153	+0.38	3.42	393	84
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	84
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	88	19.7%	12.2%	1.09	4.92
Jerry Johnson ('68-'77, -4 WAR*)	3.9	77	19.4%*	11.3%*	1.06*	5.08*
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Jack O'Connor ('81-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.6	64	18.6%*	11.4%*	1.20*	4.96*
Robinson Tejeda ('11)	2.2	74	19.1%	12.6%	0.96	4.42
Steven Brault ('22)	1.8	59	18.8%	11.3%	0.97	4.73
Manny Parra ('15)	3.1	78	20.8%	10.6%	1.00	4.90