Leighton Finley — OGILVIE

Leighton Finley P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%21.0%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	22	18	101	445	104	52	5	82%	4.6	16.8%	13.5%	3.3%	1.5%	4.47	4.23	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	22	18	101	445	104	52	5	82%	4.6	16.8%	13.5%	3.3%	1.5%	4.47	4.23	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	BOS	21	17	96	428	97	49	5	81%	4.6	22.7%	11.4%	11.2%	1.2%	4.69	3.28	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	BOS	1	1	5	17	7	3	0	100%	4.7	41.2%	17.6%	23.5%	0.0%	0.00	1.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	102	432	94	46	13	100%	5.7	21.8%	10.5%	11.3%	2.9%	4.64	4.57	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	105	443	99	43	13	100%	5.5	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	2.9%	4.49	4.41	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	106	448	102	42	13	100%	5.9	22.7%	9.3%	13.4%	2.9%	4.38	4.32	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	106	448	103	42	13	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.3%	13.7%	2.9%	4.33	4.29	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	105	442	101	41	13	100%	6.2	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.9%	4.33	4.33	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	102	429	98	41	13	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.5%	13.3%	3.0%	4.38	4.42	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	97	409	92	40	13	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.55	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	91	385	85	39	13	100%	6.1	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	3.4%	4.63	4.73	+0.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	85	359	78	37	13	100%	6.1	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	3.6%	4.81	4.93	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	50	211	46	22	6	100%	5.6	21.8%	10.5%	11.3%	2.8%	4.60	4.53	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	73	308	69	30	9	100%	5.6	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	2.8%	4.45	4.37	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	86	363	83	34	10	100%	5.7	22.7%	9.3%	13.4%	2.8%	4.34	4.28	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	93	393	90	36	11	100%	5.8	22.9%	9.3%	13.7%	2.8%	4.29	4.25	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	94	397	91	37	11	100%	5.9	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.9%	4.29	4.29	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	93	393	89	37	12	100%	5.8	22.8%	9.5%	13.3%	2.9%	4.34	4.38	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	90	380	86	37	12	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	3.1%	4.44	4.51	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	85	359	80	36	12	100%	6.1	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	3.3%	4.58	4.68	+0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	81	342	75	35	12	100%	5.8	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	3.5%	4.76	4.88	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		126	126	747	3152	709	306	94	100%	5.9	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	3.0%	4.44	4.07	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	82	25	100%	5.9	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	3.0%	4.44	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		22	18	101	445	75	60	7	82%	4.6	16.8%	13.5%	3.3%	1.5%	4.47	4.23	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	36	200	884	148	119	13	82%	4.6	16.8%	13.5%	3.3%	1.5%	4.47	4.23	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leighton Finley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	21.0%	11.8%	2.9%	—	4.43	22.3%	12.4%	313	-0.38	—	—	—
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	82
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	82
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	81
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	81
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	81
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	80
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	80
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	80
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	79
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	78
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	78
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	78
Jeronimo Castro R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP	3.85	20.1%	12.2%	1.7%	.358	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	158	77
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	77
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	77
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	92	22.4%	9.8%	1.18	4.49
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98