Leighton Finley P Salem RidgeYaks
Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 37 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
K%23.0%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
K: -0.1 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-0KBB: -1.7 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-2BBCONTACT: +0.6 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+1CONTACTSTAM: +13.6 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+14STAMTotal WAR: +1.30 (100 IP)+1.3WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.20.20.20.2+$5M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5560
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2032Arb-1$1M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
202622ASalem RidgeYaks1412632766137286%4.516.4%15.8%0.5%0.9%4.164.24+0.3
ROS22MLBBOS773715736155100%5.323.0%9.6%13.4%2.9%4.374.37+0.1
ROS22MLBBOS023.0%9.6%13.4%3.0%4.384.38
2026 TOT22MLBBOS1004339752722.4%12.0%10.4%1.5%4.244.29+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202723MLBBOS773916339155100%5.523.8%9.1%14.7%2.9%4.284.22+0.1
202824MLBBOS774016841155100%5.724.3%8.8%15.5%2.9%4.194.12+0.2
202925MLBBOS774017042155100%5.724.6%8.6%16.0%2.9%4.124.07+0.2
203026MLBBOS774017042155100%5.724.8%8.6%16.2%2.9%4.084.05+0.2
203127MLBBOS774016741145100%5.724.8%8.6%16.1%2.9%4.094.09+0.2
203228MLBBOS663816240145100%6.424.6%8.8%15.9%3.0%4.144.17+0.2
202723MLBBOS4419801972100%4.823.8%9.1%14.7%2.9%4.294.23+0.1
202824MLBBOS552811829103100%5.624.3%8.8%15.5%2.9%4.204.13+0.1
202925MLBBOS663313934124100%5.524.6%8.6%16.0%2.9%4.134.08+0.2
203026MLBBOS663514837134100%5.824.8%8.6%16.2%2.9%4.094.06+0.2
203127MLBBOS663615238134100%6.024.8%8.6%16.1%2.9%4.104.10+0.2
203228MLBBOS663514836134100%5.824.6%8.8%15.9%3.0%4.154.18+0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career32321867841926823100%5.824.5%8.7%15.8%2.9%4.153.74+3.6
/ 200 IP34342008442077325100%5.824.5%8.7%15.8%2.9%4.153.74+3.9
Career1412632764544386%4.516.4%15.8%0.5%0.9%4.164.24+0.3
/ 200 IP4538200881144139886%4.516.4%15.8%0.5%0.9%4.164.24+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Leighton Finley (OGILVIE) 4.37 23.0%9.6%2.9% 4.14 24.2%15.4%119 -0.23
Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP 23 SP- 3.56 21.9%8.3%2.3%.284 3.43 20.0%10.3%195 -0.13 2.97 258 87
Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP 22 SP 4.06 19.3%9.9%2.4%.268 5.93 17.4%2.1%47 +1.87 4.06 101 86
Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 3.67 FIP 22 SP 3.67 25.0%9.0%2.8%.341 3.99 20.4%9.7%242 +0.32 3.44 259 85
Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP 23 SP 4.23 21.7%8.4%3.5%.329 3.55 21.5%12.4%178 -0.68 2.49 298 84
Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP 23 SP 3.92 20.3%9.9%2.3%.315 4.36 22.3%13.8%422 +0.44 3.76 537 84
Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.36 FIP 22 SP 4.36 22.8%8.8%3.8%.309 4.57 21.5%2.4%151 +0.21 4.05 215 84
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 4.00 FIP 22 SP 4.00 21.9%9.8%2.7%.175 4.15 18.0%7.5%168 +0.15 3.59 307 84
Dylan DeLucia R 2027 · 3.65 FIP 23 SP 3.65 21.6%7.4%2.6%.241 5.26 18.3%7.9%176 +1.61 3.65 211 83
Gus Varland R 2026 · 4.13 FIP 22 SP- 4.13 19.6%8.7%2.9%.294 5.81 18.1%5.7%105 +1.68 2.54 304 83
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP 22 SP 4.07 22.2%10.6%2.8%.292 5.42 19.5%6.0%244 +1.35 4.07 378 83
Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 4.10 FIP 22 SP 4.10 19.3%9.9%2.5%.305 3.42 23.5%13.7%96 -0.68 2.58 408 83
Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP 22 SP 3.71 21.9%10.5%2.0%.264 4.60 19.1%9.4%359 +0.89 3.71 429 83
Drew Anderson R 2026 · 3.54 FIP 22 SP 3.54 21.1%9.2%1.9%.295 4.74 16.3%7.6%273 +1.20 3.11 506 82
Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP 23 SP- 4.03 23.6%11.1%2.8%.312 5.16 22.3%9.9%93 +1.13 4.03 152 81
Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP 22 SP 4.72 18.8%10.5%3.4%.331 6.04 21.6%9.0%233 +1.32 4.72 283 81
Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP 23 SP- 4.45 21.5%12.1%3.0%.275 4.09 25.9%14.9%121 -0.36 3.05 181 81
Gabriel Hughes R 2025 · 5.02 FIP 21 SP 5.02 22.2%10.0%4.6%.302 3.95 18.7%10.3%143 -1.07 2.58 210 81
Bryce Jarvis R 2027 · 4.78 FIP 23 SP 4.78 21.2%11.0%3.8%.276 5.00 18.0%6.0%296 +0.22 4.22 513 80
Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP 24 SP 3.87 23.2%10.7%2.5%.239 5.71 20.0%6.1%278 +1.84 3.87 325 80
Ricky Castro R 2028 · 3.93 FIP 24 SP- 3.93 20.4%8.6%2.7%.287 4.58 19.4%11.0%140 +0.65 3.90 202 80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION73924.3%8.9%1.134.18
Ryan Tepera ('22)74824.7%8.8%1.123.53
Jacob Barnes ('24)74222.1%9.6%1.214.58
Hansel Robles ('22)75925.3%10.1%1.163.86
David Hernandez ('19)55425.0%7.9%1.144.10
Noé Ramirez ('22)55224.8%9.0%1.334.19
Daniel Hudson ('24)95225.5%8.9%1.133.75