Tommy Hawke — OGILVIE

Tommy HawkeOF Lynchburg Hillcats

Age 24 L/R 5'8" / 151 lbs A K +5%HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2029

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .305 / .327

PA234

HR3

SB8

K%25

BB%10

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

20→20

SPD

60→60

EYE

58↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2029

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$1.0M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$-5M	-$9M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	ROK	ACL Guardians	21	19	3	1	0	0	2	9	0	2	1	.158	.238	.211	.449	.053	.300	43	10	.209	18	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
2024	22	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	391	347	75	11	5	1	35	113	4	37	11	.216	.295	.285	.581	.069	.312	29	9	.263	59	-18	+3	+0	-2	+11	-0.6
2025	23	A	2 teams	286	245	64	10	2	0	35	68	3	65	5	.261	.360	.318	.679	.057	.358	24	12	.309	95	-2	+11	+0	-2	+8	1.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	CLE	234	207	46	9	1	3	23	60	2	8	2	.222	.306	.319	.625	.097	.294	26	10	.290	80	-5	+1	+0	-1	+7	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	25	MLB 10%	CLE	276	244	56	10	2	5	27	69	3	9	2	.230	.314	.348	.662	.119	.295	25	10	.298	86	-4	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.3
2028	26	MLB 25%	CLE	341	301	70	13	2	7	34	85	3	10	2	.233	.317	.359	.675	.126	.296	25	10	.302	89	-4	+1	+0	-2	+10	0.5
2029	27	MLB 42%	CLE	373	329	75	14	2	7	37	92	4	10	2	.228	.314	.347	.660	.119	.296	25	10	.303	90	-4	+1	+0	-2	+11	0.6
2030	28	MLB 52%	CLE	392	346	80	15	2	8	39	98	4	10	1	.231	.316	.355	.672	.124	.295	25	10	.303	90	-4	+2	-1	-2	+11	0.5
2031	29	MLB 63%	CLE	396	349	80	15	2	8	40	100	4	10	1	.229	.316	.352	.668	.123	.295	25	10	.301	88	-5	+2	-1	-2	+11	0.4
2032	30	MLB 72%	CLE	398	351	80	15	2	8	40	102	4	9	1	.228	.314	.350	.664	.123	.294	26	10	.298	86	-6	+1	-2	-2	+11	0.2
2033	31	MLB 81%	CLE	388	342	76	14	2	7	39	101	4	8	0	.222	.309	.336	.645	.114	.293	26	10	.294	83	-7	+2	-3	-2	+11	0.0
2034	32	MLB 87%	CLE	372	328	72	13	2	6	37	99	4	7	0	.220	.306	.326	.632	.107	.291	27	10	.290	80	-8	+1	-4	-2	+11	-0.2
2035	33	MLB 93%	CLE	345	305	67	12	2	6	34	94	3	6	0	.220	.304	.331	.635	.111	.290	27	10	.285	76	-9	+1	-4	-2	+10	-0.5
2036	34	MLB	CLE	302	266	55	10	1	4	30	85	3	6	0	.207	.294	.297	.591	.090	.289	28	10	.279	72	-10	+1	-5	-2	+9	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4515	3979	899	162	27	70	452	1175	45	197	28	.226	.312	.333	.645	.107	.300	26	10	.293	82	-90	+28	-20	-27	+128	2.0
/ 162G	—			650	573	129	23	4	10	65	169	6	28	4	.225	.311	.332	.642	.106	.299	26	10	.293	82	-13	+4	-3	-4	+18	0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	ROK	ACL Guardians	21	17	4	1	0	0	4	6	0	2	1	.235	.381	.294	.675	.059	.364	29	19	.323	106	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	22	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	391	323	85	12	6	1	59	78	4	37	11	.263	.383	.347	.730	.084	.339	20	15	.335	115	+6	+3	—	—	+11	2.1
2025	23	A+	Lake County Captains	19	18	5	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0	.278	.316	.278	.594	.000	.357	21	5	.275	69	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	23	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	267	207	64	11	2	0	53	44	3	63	5	.309	.455	.382	.836	.072	.388	16	20	.385	152	+16	+11	—	—	+8	3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tommy Hawke (OGILVIE)	24	55	20	60	60	.222/.305/.327	.105	.294	3	8	25%	10%	80	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alden Carrithers 2009 · A	24	50→60	39→30	56→55	53	.235/.323/.325	.090	.294	6	17	21%	10%	87	+0.8	.259/.333/.325	.066	.312	3	15	16%	9%	90	+1.0	.278/.352/.333	.055	.322	1	17	13%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Joshua Howard 2007 · A	24	53	38→40	55→60	51	.244/.318/.326	.081	.317	4	24	23%	9%	84	+0.6	.215/.287/.275	.060	.310	3	17	28%	9%	58	-1.2	.188/.262/.215	.027	.285	0	16	31%	9%	30	-1.7
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	49	40	58→60	50	.230/.303/.328	.098	.298	6	21	24%	9%	79	+0.3	.220/.286/.297	.077	.280	4	17	21%	7%	63	-0.9	.202/.266/.223	.021	.248	0	22	17%	6%	32	-0.7
✕Austin Martin 2023 · AA	24	47→50	38→40	56→60	51	.221/.324/.302	.081	.284	5	24	22%	9%	82	+0.5	.234/.322/.320	.086	.289	6	24	19%	9%	85	+0.7	.251/.338/.332	.081	.305	5	25	18%	10%	92	+0.6
✕Adam Klein 2008 · A	24	48	35→30	56→60	59	.215/.331/.278	.063	.302	2	25	26%	14%	79	+0.3	.231/.334/.296	.065	.313	2	17	23%	13%	85	+0.7	.243/.353/.301	.057	.322	1	17	21%	14%	92	+0.7
✕Juan Silva 2015 · A	24	49→47	41→45	55	51	.234/.314/.339	.105	.310	8	27	26%	10%	85	+0.7	.218/.292/.308	.090	.286	6	18	24%	9%	69	-0.4	.196/.269/.272	.076	.260	4	10	24%	9%	46	-0.7
✕Carl Loadenthal 2006 · A	24	48→58	40	54→60	45	.233/.285/.332	.100	.286	7	20	21%	6%	72	-0.2	.257/.314/.335	.078	.325	5	25	21%	7%	84	+0.6	.267/.324/.324	.057	.342	4	30	21%	7%	83	+0.4
✕Thomas Coyle 2015 · A	24	48→51	39→40	58→55	49	.226/.297/.316	.090	.293	5	21	24%	8%	72	-0.2	.201/.267/.296	.095	.291	7	20	31%	8%	55	-1.4	.173/.242/.271	.097	.260	7	22	34%	8%	36	-1.4
●Jacob Hurtubise 2022 · A	24	51→61	35→40	57→60	50	.232/.323/.292	.060	.316	2	28	24%	9%	79	+0.3	.244/.341/.323	.079	.321	5	33	23%	9%	94	+1.3	.253/.354/.339	.086	.327	6	39	22%	9%	101	+1.0
✕Jose Constanza 2007 · A	23	54→64	37→40	57→60	50	.251/.317/.328	.077	.323	3	21	22%	9%	83	+0.6	.254/.304/.319	.065	.321	2	27	20%	7%	75	-0.0	.289/.335/.346	.057	.338	1	37	14%	6%	91	+0.9
✕Brad McElroy 2010 · A	24	45→55	40→45	55	50	.214/.299/.310	.096	.284	7	17	25%	9%	72	-0.2	.228/.290/.323	.095	.298	6	20	24%	7%	72	-0.2	.231/.290/.319	.088	.300	5	23	23%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Joe McCarthy 2018 · AA	24	48→49	42→45	53→50	53	.231/.316/.344	.113	.292	8	15	22%	10%	89	+0.9	.208/.292/.337	.129	.287	12	10	29%	9%	77	+0.1	.197/.279/.353	.156	.261	18	5	31%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Cameron Coughlan 2006 · AA	24	53→56	41→40	53→60	53	.252/.324/.350	.098	.307	8	25	20%	9%	92	+1.2	.242/.317/.337	.095	.314	7	22	23%	9%	87	+0.8	.238/.322/.321	.082	.320	5	25	25%	9%	81	+0.2
✕Ryan Rogowski 2008 · A	24	47→46	39→40	60→55	50	.222/.292/.322	.101	.275	5	25	20%	8%	72	-0.2	.219/.287/.305	.086	.272	5	25	20%	8%	66	-0.6	.216/.287/.287	.072	.261	5	32	18%	8%	59	-0.9
✕Kevin Kaczmarski 2016 · A	24	53→56	41→40	51→50	46	.254/.300/.358	.104	.304	7	14	18%	6%	84	+0.6	.246/.302/.336	.090	.315	3	12	21%	7%	79	+0.3	.249/.311/.330	.081	.323	2	11	22%	7%	80	+0.2
✕Danny Muno 2013 · A	24	49→51	41→45	54→50	52	.233/.312/.336	.103	.298	8	17	23%	10%	85	+0.7	.233/.317/.342	.109	.297	10	13	23%	10%	89	+0.9	.228/.313/.330	.102	.289	10	11	23%	10%	81	+0.3
✕Brett Nommensen 2011 · A	24	47	44→45	55	50	.228/.298/.345	.117	.268	11	21	19%	8%	81	+0.4	.239/.314/.341	.102	.292	7	17	19%	8%	87	+0.8	.243/.324/.334	.091	.301	5	16	19%	8%	89	+0.5
●Jermaine Mitchell 2009 · A	24	48→57	42→45	52→55	46	.227/.298/.331	.104	.321	9	16	30%	9%	77	+0.1	.229/.301/.332	.103	.334	8	16	31%	9%	79	+0.3	.245/.318/.375	.129	.337	10	18	28%	9%	92	+1.1
✕Evan Frey 2010 · AA	24	53→58	36→40	54→55	49	.249/.307/.322	.073	.302	3	21	18%	7%	78	+0.2	.239/.300/.304	.065	.302	2	23	20%	8%	69	-0.4	.233/.298/.289	.057	.295	1	26	20%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Gabe Holt 2022 · AA	24	52→54	36→30	52→50	54	.241/.319/.303	.062	.290	3	12	17%	9%	79	+0.3	.214/.269/.274	.060	.249	3	13	14%	6%	50	-1.8	.186/.224/.223	.036	.210	0	14	11%	4%	13	-2.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)