Peyton Olejnik

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 24 RHP 6'11" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.0 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #637MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ASEA	25	25	129	4.20	3.26	23.1%	11.2%	—	K 17.1% · BB 13.2% · FIP 4.19
2026	23	A+LAA	22	22	107	4.47	3.55	23.3%	10.7%	—	K 17.9% · BB 12.3% · FIP 4.44
2027PROJ	24	MLBLAA	27	27	149	5.11	5.11	18.4%	13.6%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBLAA	11	11	65	4.95	4.88	19.7%	12.3%	0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBLAA	17	17	100	4.84	4.79	20.5%	11.9%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$1M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff52Control45Command40FB velo52

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsCarlos Pimentel (age 25) · Keyvius Sampson (age 24) · Ian Mejia (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%18.4%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%4.9%

Proj IP149

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL—45

CMD3040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	6	25	11	3	0	100%	1.6	44.0%	12.0%	32.0%	0.0%	2.84	0.90	—
2024	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	6	25	11	3	0	100%	1.6	44.0%	12.0%	32.0%	0.0%	2.84	0.90	—
2024	21	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	6	25	11	3	0	100%	1.6	44.0%	12.0%	32.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.05	—
2025	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	25	25	129	562	130	63	7	100%	5.1	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	1.6%	4.20	4.19	—
2025	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	25	25	129	562	130	63	7	100%	5.1	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	1.6%	4.20	4.19	—
2025	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	25	25	129	562	130	63	7	100%	5.1	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	1.2%	4.20	3.26	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	107	477	111	51	9	100%	4.8	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	2.4%	4.47	4.44	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	107	477	111	51	9	100%	4.8	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	2.4%	4.47	4.44	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	107	477	111	51	9	100%	4.8	23.3%	10.7%	12.6%	1.9%	4.47	3.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	LAA	27	27	149	629	116	85	17	100%	5.5	18.4%	13.6%	4.9%	2.7%	5.11	5.11	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	151	636	126	78	17	100%	5.8	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	2.7%	4.92	4.85	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAA	25	25	151	636	130	76	17	100%	6.0	20.5%	11.9%	8.5%	2.7%	4.81	4.76	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAA	25	25	148	626	129	74	17	100%	5.9	20.5%	11.8%	8.8%	2.8%	4.77	4.77	+0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAA	24	24	144	608	124	72	18	100%	6.0	20.4%	11.8%	8.6%	2.9%	4.81	4.84	+0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	LAA	23	23	137	580	117	70	18	100%	6.0	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	3.0%	4.91	4.97	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	LAA	22	22	129	546	108	67	18	100%	5.9	19.9%	12.4%	7.5%	3.2%	5.05	5.15	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	65	274	54	34	8	100%	5.9	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	2.8%	4.95	4.88	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	100	422	86	50	12	100%	5.9	20.5%	11.9%	8.5%	2.8%	4.84	4.79	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAA	19	19	115	486	100	57	14	100%	6.1	20.5%	11.8%	8.8%	2.8%	4.80	4.80	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAA	20	20	121	511	104	60	15	100%	6.0	20.4%	11.8%	8.6%	3.0%	4.84	4.87	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	LAA	20	20	120	507	102	61	16	100%	6.0	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	3.1%	4.94	5.00	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	LAA	19	19	116	490	97	61	16	100%	6.1	19.9%	12.4%	7.5%	3.3%	5.09	5.19	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	106	637	2689	544	323	80	100%	6.0	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	3.0%	4.91	4.55	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	171	101	25	100%	6.0	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	3.0%	4.91	4.55	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		51	51	242	1064	193	136	20	100%	4.7	18.1%	12.8%	5.3%	1.9%	4.28	4.22	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	42	200	881	159	113	17	100%	4.7	18.1%	12.8%	5.3%	1.9%	4.28	4.22	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Olejnik (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	18.4%	13.6%	2.7%	—	4.79	20.2%	8.2%	450	-0.32	—	—	—
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	88
Keyvius Sampson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	24	SP	4.10	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.55	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.45	4.10	316	88
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	87
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	85
Shaddon Peavyhouse R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	24	SP	4.78	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.299	5.21	14.8%	2.5%	137	+0.43	4.43	270	85
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	85
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	84
Tyler Herb R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	17.2%	10.1%	2.5%	.298	4.67	15.7%	7.0%	378	+0.38	3.79	867	84
Jaime Schultz R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP	4.54	23.2%	16.9%	2.3%	.297	3.87	27.5%	14.7%	209	-0.67	2.19	391	82
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	82
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	82
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	82
Jamison Hill R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.2%	15.6%	1.8%	.248	5.44	16.0%	6.4%	84	+0.72	4.72	326	82
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	81
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	81
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	81
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	81
Carter Spivey R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP	4.02	14.2%	10.6%	1.4%	.264	6.14	14.9%	3.5%	30	+2.12	4.02	155	80
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	80
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	144	20.0%	12.3%	1.11	4.91
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Rich Gale ('78-'84, 3 WAR*)	4.9	139	18.9%*	10.8%*	1.05*	4.94*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Daniel Cabrera ('09)	4.5	149	16.7%	12.9%	0.93	5.10
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
Bill James ('11-'19, 2 WAR*)	5.9	169	16.0%*	11.3%*	1.03*	4.82*