Mason Olson — OGILVIE

Mason Olson P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 24 LHP 5'10" / 165 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%20.9%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	4	36	149	39	12	0	44%	4.0	18.6%	9.7%	9.0%	0.0%	2.72	2.75	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	4	36	149	39	12	0	44%	4.0	18.6%	9.7%	9.0%	0.0%	2.72	2.75	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	4	36	149	39	12	0	44%	4.0	26.2%	8.1%	18.1%	0.0%	2.72	1.94	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	34	8	94	405	101	27	12	24%	2.8	20.6%	6.7%	13.9%	3.6%	4.48	4.21	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	34	8	94	405	101	27	12	24%	2.8	20.6%	6.7%	13.9%	3.6%	4.48	4.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	TOR	1	0	3	14	3	1	0	0%	3.3	21.4%	7.1%	14.3%	0.0%	2.70	2.20	—
2026	24	AA RAW	TOR	31	8	85	362	92	22	11	26%	2.7	25.4%	6.1%	19.3%	3.0%	4.68	3.39	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	TOR	2	0	6	29	6	4	1	0%	3.1	20.7%	13.8%	6.9%	3.4%	2.84	4.99	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TOR	89	0	94	395	85	36	11	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	2.8%	4.40	4.37	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	89	0	94	395	86	35	11	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.9%	12.7%	2.8%	4.36	4.34	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	TOR	88	0	92	389	84	35	11	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.0%	12.7%	2.9%	4.36	4.37	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	TOR	85	0	89	377	81	34	11	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.1%	12.5%	3.0%	4.41	4.45	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	TOR	81	0	85	361	77	34	11	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	3.1%	4.51	4.58	-0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	TOR	76	0	80	339	71	33	11	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.6%	11.3%	3.3%	4.66	4.76	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	TOR	39	0	41	173	37	16	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	2.8%	4.40	4.37	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	60	0	63	266	58	24	8	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.9%	12.7%	2.8%	4.36	4.34	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	TOR	69	0	72	304	66	27	9	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.0%	12.7%	2.9%	4.36	4.37	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	TOR	71	0	75	317	68	29	9	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.1%	12.5%	3.0%	4.41	4.45	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	TOR	71	0	75	317	67	29	10	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	3.1%	4.51	4.58	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	TOR	69	0	72	304	64	29	10	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.6%	11.3%	3.3%	4.66	4.76	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		379	0	398	1679	360	154	51	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.46	4.11	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	77	26	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.46	4.11	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		43	12	131	554	111	42	15	28%	3.0	20.1%	7.5%	12.6%	2.7%	3.99	3.82	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	18	200	848	170	64	23	28%	3.0	20.1%	7.5%	12.6%	2.7%	3.99	3.82	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Olson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	20.9%	9.6%	2.8%	—	4.36	21.6%	12.6%	279	-0.11	—	—	—
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	78
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	75
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	75
Samuel Strickland L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	24	SW	4.87	19.5%	7.3%	4.5%	.337	3.53	20.1%	14.4%	148	-1.34	2.91	292	74
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	74
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	74
Austin Hamilton L 2018 · 4.49 FIP	24	SW	4.49	14.6%	6.5%	3.3%	.323	4.02	17.3%	9.4%	68	-0.47	4.02	135	73
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.20	21.6%	15.5%	179	+0.27	2.24	306	73
Ben Wereski L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	24	SU	4.78	18.6%	7.6%	4.2%	.287	3.73	29.0%	21.6%	20	-1.05	3.73	132	72
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	72
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	72
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	72
Kohl Drake L 2023 · 4.81 FIP	23	SW	4.81	16.3%	11.9%	2.9%	.391	4.32	21.8%	12.5%	292	-0.49	3.32	327	72
Jordan Harrison L 2015 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	15.6%	9.0%	2.0%	.263	4.14	16.3%	0.5%	152	+0.10	3.80	244	71
Christian Jones L 2015 · 3.32 FIP	24	SU	3.32	18.5%	7.4%	1.6%	.319	4.00	15.0%	3.7%	89	+0.68	3.32	161	71
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	71
JP Sears L 2019 · 3.85 FIP	23	SW	3.85	16.8%	8.9%	1.9%	.268	3.34	24.7%	17.8%	222	-0.51	2.18	958	71
Tyler Holton L 2021 · 3.35 FIP	25	SW	3.35	22.0%	6.6%	2.3%	.393	3.41	22.0%	16.1%	224	+0.06	2.97	436	71
Randy Labaut L 2021 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	23.2%	14.0%	3.7%	.240	4.68	19.1%	5.7%	190	-0.27	1.91	302	71
Justin Kelly L 2017 · 3.51 FIP	24	SW	3.51	15.6%	11.2%	0.6%	.277	3.83	21.9%	4.7%	74	+0.32	3.51	160	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	79	21.4%	9.2%	1.15	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Spencer Turnbull ('24)	1.7	68	22.0%	9.2%	0.77	4.18
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97