Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Braves | 9 | 0 | 12 | 58 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.2% | 17.2% | -2.0% | 6.5% | 8.03 | 7.59 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Braves | 9 | 0 | 12 | 58 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 8.03 | 6.10 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 12 | 62 | 275 | 61 | 21 | 4 | 80% | 4.2 | 16.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 1.2% | 3.61 | 3.45 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 12 | 62 | 275 | 61 | 21 | 4 | 80% | 4.2 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 14.5% | 1.5% | 3.61 | 2.99 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 7 | 71 | 306 | 80 | 19 | 11 | 29% | 3.0 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 4.5% | 4.29 | 4.86 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 7 | 71 | 306 | 80 | 19 | 11 | 29% | 3.0 | 26.1% | 6.2% | 19.9% | 3.6% | 4.29 | 3.66 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 39 | 0 | 59 | 236 | 66 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 14.2% | 1.6% | 1.67 | 3.09 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 39 | 0 | 59 | 236 | 66 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.0% | 6.4% | 21.6% | 0.8% | 1.67 | 2.07 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 22 | 2 | 38 | 150 | 41 | 4 | 3 | 9% | 1.7 | 21.0% | 3.1% | 18.0% | 3.9% | 2.87 | 3.86 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 22 | 2 | 38 | 150 | 41 | 4 | 3 | 9% | 1.7 | 27.3% | 2.7% | 24.7% | 2.0% | 2.87 | 2.28 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 20 | 1 | 36 | 160 | 36 | 11 | 5 | 5% | 1.8 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 6.81 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ATL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 119 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 7.6% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | ATL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 7.6% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 64 | 279 | 63 | 20 | 9 | — | — | 22.5% | 7.2% | 15.3% | 3.1% | 5.67 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.5% | 7.6% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 3.84 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 26 | 0 | 28 | 116 | 26 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 7.9% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 3.93 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 184 | 73 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 7.9% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 129 | 22 | 279 | 1185 | 226 | 90 | 36 | 17% | 2.2 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 3.88 | 4.15 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 93 | 16 | 200 | 850 | 162 | 65 | 26 | 17% | 2.2 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 3.88 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Samuel Strickland (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.22 | 22.5% | 7.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.31 | 22.5% | 14.5% | 28 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 77 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 77 |
| Jeff Malm L 2024 · 3.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.12 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 101 | 75 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.31 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.85 | 3.46 | 154 | 75 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 75 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.09 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 1.1% | .303 | 3.22 | 23.4% | 17.6% | 95 | +0.13 | 2.59 | 183 | 75 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.10 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 1.3% | .235 | 3.96 | 22.4% | 13.2% | 94 | +0.86 | 2.83 | 325 | 75 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 74 |
| James Reeves L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.3% | .226 | 5.24 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.45 | 2.02 | 280 | 74 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.65 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 308 | 74 |
| Jordan Mills L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.26 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 73 |
| Jordan Jess L 2024 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.55 | 19.3% | 5.3% | 2.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 136 | 73 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.23 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.49 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 97 | +1.26 | 2.55 | 261 | 73 |
| Chris Nunn L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.26 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 1.3% | .367 | 4.30 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 95 | +1.04 | 3.26 | 180 | 73 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 73 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .281 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.8% | 34 | -0.35 | 2.34 | 338 | 73 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 73 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2025 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 128 | 73 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .263 | 7.16 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 21 | +3.62 | 3.54 | 364 | 73 |
| Joel Bender L 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.57 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 2.6% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 117 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 22.5% | 7.8% | 1.20 | 4.25 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |