Mathew Peters — OGILVIE

Mathew Peters P Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 22 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.78

FIP5.78

K%19.9%

BB%18.9%

K-BB%1.1%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	1	10	2	4	0	0%	0.7	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	6.75	6.48	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	0	1	10	2	4	0	0%	0.7	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	6.75	9.10	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	14	0	11	69	12	24	1	0%	0.8	11.8%	43.5%	-31.7%	2.0%	16.68	8.72	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	14	0	11	69	12	24	1	0%	0.8	17.4%	34.8%	-17.4%	1.4%	16.68	8.48	—
2024	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	5	0	9	48	8	11	1	0%	1.9	16.7%	22.9%	-6.2%	2.1%	7.71	5.74	—
2024	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	5	0	9	48	8	11	1	0%	1.9	16.7%	22.9%	-6.2%	2.1%	7.71	5.74	—
2024	23	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	5	0	9	48	8	11	1	0%	1.9	16.7%	22.9%	-6.2%	2.1%	7.71	6.31	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	37	188	39	37	1	0%	1.2	14.7%	23.7%	-9.0%	0.7%	7.54	5.27	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	37	188	39	37	1	0%	1.2	14.7%	23.7%	-9.0%	0.7%	7.54	5.27	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	37	188	39	37	1	0%	1.2	20.7%	19.7%	1.1%	0.5%	7.54	4.34	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CHC	21	0	22	93	19	18	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	18.9%	1.1%	2.9%	5.78	5.78	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	31	0	33	138	28	25	4	0%	1.1	20.3%	18.0%	2.3%	3.0%	5.66	5.68	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	11	0	12	51	10	9	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	18.0%	2.3%	3.0%	5.66	5.68	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	50	10	9	1	0%	1.1	20.3%	18.0%	2.3%	3.0%	5.66	5.30	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	151	17	0%	1.1	20.3%	18.0%	2.3%	3.0%	5.66	5.30	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		51	0	59	315	46	90	4	0%	1.2	14.6%	28.5%	-13.9%	1.2%	9.31	6.14	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	0	200	1068	156	304	13	0%	1.2	14.6%	28.5%	-13.9%	1.2%	9.31	6.14	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mathew Peters (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.78	19.9%	18.9%	2.9%	—	5.68	20.3%	2.3%	33	-0.10	—	—	—
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	87
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	85
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	84
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	84
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	83
Manuel Alvarez R 2022 · 5.02 FIP	26	SU	5.02	20.3%	17.1%	2.7%	.330	6.63	11.8%	-14.8%	12	+1.61	4.58	154	81
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	81
Harrison Cooney R 2018 · 6.60 FIP	26	SU	6.60	18.8%	21.9%	4.2%	.237	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	186	81
Andrew Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	26	SU	4.87	18.9%	18.1%	1.9%	.311	3.86	23.3%	7.7%	84	-1.01	3.56	176	81
Ryan Sublette R 2024 · 5.72 FIP	25	SU	5.72	19.9%	17.5%	3.8%	.214	4.47	18.6%	5.0%	53	-1.25	3.74	203	80
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	16.5%	18.7%	2.2%	.366	5.43	19.2%	7.7%	42	+0.13	4.54	132	79
Yaramil Hiraldo R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SU	4.86	18.5%	15.5%	2.5%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	155	79
Lukas Schiraldi R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	25	SU	5.00	18.7%	19.3%	1.9%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	319	79
Connor Cooke R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	24	SU	5.02	17.4%	17.0%	2.2%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	103	79
Chad Harville R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	26	SU	5.17	17.3%	15.4%	2.9%	.328	4.84	17.6%	6.5%	142	-0.33	4.51	178	79
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	79
Josh Roberson R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	26	SU	5.17	19.3%	16.1%	3.0%	.361	4.11	20.3%	6.2%	70	-1.06	3.17	229	78
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	78
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	78
Yennier Cano R 2019 · 5.94 FIP	25	SU	5.94	17.6%	20.2%	3.2%	.219	3.89	23.6%	12.1%	128	-2.05	2.43	381	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	20.1%	18.3%	1.14	5.71
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51