Thomas Harrington

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	22	21	117	2.61	2.62	25.1%	4.1%	—	K 20.6% · BB 4.1% · FIP 3.31
2025	24	MIX2 levels	24	21	105	6.19	5.25	20.9%	8.6%	0.2	K 18.2% · BB 7.9% · FIP 5.79
2026	25	AAAPIT	33	14	102	6.02	4.05	21.3%	9.1%	—	K 18.3% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.27
2027PROJ	26	MLBPIT	4	4	22	5.06	4.83	17.7%	7.0%	0.1
2028PROJ55% MLB	27	MLBPIT	8	8	45	4.74	4.66	18.1%	7.1%	0.3
2029PROJ70% MLB	28	MLBPIT	9	9	54	4.70	4.71	18.3%	7.3%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$0.7M2028Arb-2$1M2029Arb-3$2M2030Arb-4$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsNick Payero (age 24) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Forrest Snow (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA5.06

FIP4.83

K%17.7%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%10.7%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.7M	+0.1	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M
2029	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-4	$2M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$1M		$4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	127	526	146	41	14	100%	4.9	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	2.9%	3.53	4.07	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	127	526	146	41	14	100%	4.9	27.8%	7.8%	20.0%	2.7%	3.53	3.20	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	117	458	115	19	9	95%	5.3	20.6%	4.1%	16.6%	2.6%	2.61	3.31	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	117	458	115	19	9	95%	5.3	20.6%	4.1%	16.6%	2.6%	2.61	3.31	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	21	117	458	115	19	9	95%	5.3	25.1%	4.1%	21.0%	2.0%	2.61	2.62	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	105	465	97	40	23	88%	4.4	18.2%	7.9%	10.3%	5.9%	6.19	5.79	-0.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	105	465	97	40	23	88%	4.4	18.2%	7.9%	10.3%	5.9%	6.19	5.79	-0.5
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	105	465	97	40	23	88%	4.4	20.9%	8.6%	12.3%	4.9%	6.19	5.25	+0.2
2026	25	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	33	14	102	464	99	42	13	42%	3.1	18.3%	8.1%	10.2%	3.1%	6.02	4.27	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	33	14	102	464	99	42	13	42%	3.1	18.3%	8.1%	10.2%	3.1%	6.02	4.27	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	33	14	102	464	99	42	13	42%	3.1	21.3%	9.1%	12.3%	2.8%	6.02	4.05	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	1	9	50	7	7	3	33%	2.9	14.0%	14.0%	0.0%	6.0%	15.58	8.41	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PIT	4	4	22	93	16	6	3	100%	5.5	17.7%	7.0%	10.7%	3.6%	5.06	4.83	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	82	346	63	25	12	100%	5.9	18.1%	7.1%	11.0%	3.6%	4.89	4.81	+0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	76	323	59	24	12	100%	5.9	18.3%	7.3%	11.0%	3.6%	4.85	4.86	+0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	70	296	54	22	11	100%	5.8	18.2%	7.6%	10.7%	3.7%	4.90	4.96	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	63	266	48	21	10	100%	5.7	18.0%	7.9%	10.1%	3.9%	5.02	5.11	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	45	190	34	14	6	100%	5.6	18.1%	7.1%	11.0%	3.3%	4.74	4.66	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	54	228	42	17	8	100%	6.0	18.3%	7.3%	11.0%	3.4%	4.70	4.71	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	55	232	42	18	8	100%	6.1	18.2%	7.6%	10.7%	3.5%	4.75	4.81	+0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	53	224	40	18	8	100%	5.9	18.0%	7.9%	10.1%	3.6%	4.86	4.95	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	35	215	919	165	72	33	95%	5.8	17.9%	7.8%	10.1%	3.6%	5.20	4.55	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	857	154	67	31	95%	5.7	17.9%	7.8%	10.1%	3.6%	5.20	4.55	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		105	82	451	1913	375	141	69	78%	4.3	19.6%	7.3%	12.3%	3.6%	4.47	4.35	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	36	200	848	166	62	31	78%	4.3	19.6%	7.3%	12.3%	3.6%	4.47	4.35	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 102 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.27 (+0.29)K% 21.3% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.34%	—	×0.860	18.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.05%	—	×0.900	8.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.80%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.08%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 96 IPFIP 4.92 → 5.61 (+0.69)K% 21.7% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.69%	—	×0.860	18.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.95%	—	×0.900	7.16%
HR / BF /BF	4.82%	÷0.915	×1.100	5.79%

Result: FIP 4.92 → 5.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAltoona Curve · 68 IPFIP 2.07 → 2.90 (+0.83)K% 27.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.41%	—	×0.810	22.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×1.100	4.07%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷0.844	×1.200	2.11%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 2.07 → 2.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 46 IPFIP 3.41 → 3.92 (+0.52)K% 21.2% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.23%	—	×0.860	18.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.47%	—	×0.900	4.02%
HR / BF /BF	2.79%	÷0.909	×1.100	3.38%

Result: FIP 3.41 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 88 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.06 (+0.76)K% 28.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.19%	—	×0.770	21.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.71%	—	×1.150	8.87%
HR / BF /BF	2.93%	÷1.202	×1.250	3.04%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 140).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ABradenton Marauders · 39 IPFIP 2.96 → 4.10 (+1.14)K% 26.7% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.740	19.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.180	9.44%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷0.971	×1.300	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas Harrington (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.87	18.2%	10.9%	228	+0.04	—	—	—
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	84
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	82
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	78
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	78
Brad Lincoln R 2011 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP-	3.78	13.7%	5.7%	2.1%	.301	4.23	22.3%	13.9%	120	+0.45	3.78	280	77
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	77
Mitch Myers R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	16.1%	5.8%	3.3%	.338	5.64	17.3%	8.5%	92	+1.35	3.56	432	77
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	77
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	76
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	76
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.82	13.1%	3.7%	116	+0.21	2.84	310	76
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	76
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	75
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	75
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	75
Parker Curry R 2019 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	17.8%	5.4%	4.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	256	75
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	75
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	75
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	75
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	75	17.9%	7.6%	1.45	5.19
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Joe Biagini ('21)	1.7	83	19.0%	7.9%	1.28	5.03
Bob Wells ('02)	3.2	79	15.0%	7.2%	1.43	5.03
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*