Thomas Harrington
P
Indianapolis Indians
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA9.28
FIP5.08
xFIP6.61
SIERA5.84
K%20.0%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%11.8%
IP110
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†5050
SL+1.1 (20%)
CT-0.9 (10%)
FB-5.5 (47%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 26 | 26 | 127 | 526 | 146 | 41 | 14 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 4.10 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 22 | 21 | 117 | 458 | 115 | 19 | 9 | 20.8% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.61 | 3.30 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 24 | 21 | 105 | 465 | 97 | 40 | 23 | 18.5% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 6.19 | 5.82 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 3 | 3 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 2.84 | 2.93 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PIT | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 37 | 15 | 8 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 9.28 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 57 | 240 | 49 | 21 | 8 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 7.84 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 117 | 493 | 101 | 40 | 20 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 6.65 | 4.96 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 22 | 22 | 120 | 506 | 105 | 41 | 20 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 5.59 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 105 | 41 | 20 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 5.17 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 117 | 496 | 102 | 41 | 19 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 5.02 | 4.94 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 98 | 40 | 19 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 5.01 | 5.00 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 94 | 39 | 19 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 5.05 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 19 | 106 | 445 | 89 | 38 | 18 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 5.11 | 5.16 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 83 | 37 | 18 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 5.20 | 5.26 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 78 | 36 | 18 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 4.3% | 5.30 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 72 | 35 | 17 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 5.41 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 66 | 34 | 16 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 4.6% | 5.54 | 5.62 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 75 | 71 | 362 | 1504 | 303 | 115 | 54 | 20.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 3.98 | 4.35 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 39 | 200 | 831 | 167 | 64 | 30 | 20.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 3.98 | 4.35 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Thomas Harrington (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.08 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 4.1% | — | 4.93 | 20.7% | 12.5% | 357 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Hagen Danner R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.22 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.0% | .295 | 4.33 | 18.9% | 10.6% | 56 | +0.11 | 3.49 | 155 | 82 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 82 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 81 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .238 | 4.78 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 263 | +0.40 | 3.84 | 299 | 81 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.04 | 4.37 | 119 | 81 |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | .364 | 6.24 | 17.3% | 5.0% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.59 | 108 | 80 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 79 |
| Carlos Alvarado R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.87 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.09 | 24.3% | 14.8% | 78 | -0.78 | 2.67 | 102 | 79 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 78 |
| Boby Johnson R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 4.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 145 | 78 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.89 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .283 | 3.52 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 89 | -0.37 | 3.52 | 136 | 78 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2026 · 5.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.75 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 5.9% | .263 | 4.74 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 111 | -1.01 | 3.86 | 157 | 77 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.28 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.38 | 3.90 | 158 | 77 |
| Luis De La O R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.37 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .370 | 3.72 | 15.3% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.65 | 3.22 | 145 | 77 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.22 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 143 | 77 |
| Heath Hembree R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.00 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .256 | 3.93 | 25.6% | 17.6% | 173 | -0.07 | 2.67 | 382 | 76 |
| Seth Frankoff R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.02 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .312 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 177 | +0.22 | 2.88 | 263 | 76 |
| Andres Avila R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.99 | 16.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 13.9% | 73 | +0.14 | 3.99 | 177 | 76 |
| Joel Cesar R 2024 · 5.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.31 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 4.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 127 | 76 |
| Connor McCullough R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .217 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 158 | 76 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.1 | $0.4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $9M | +$2M | ||