Thomas Harrington

Thomas Harrington P Indianapolis Indians

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.6 · 2028 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION95 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.24

FIP5.11

K%18.2%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

SL+1.1 (20%)

CT-0.9 (10%)

FB-5.5 (47%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-2	$3M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	127	526	146	41	14	100%	4.9	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	2.9%	3.53	4.07	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	127	526	146	41	14	100%	4.9	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	2.9%	3.53	4.07	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	127	526	146	41	14	100%	4.9	27.8%	7.8%	20.0%	2.7%	3.53	3.20	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	117	458	115	19	9	95%	5.3	20.4%	4.1%	16.3%	2.6%	2.61	3.33	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	117	458	115	19	9	95%	5.3	20.4%	4.1%	16.3%	2.6%	2.61	3.33	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	21	117	458	115	19	9	95%	5.3	25.1%	4.1%	21.0%	2.0%	2.61	2.62	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	105	465	97	40	23	88%	4.4	17.6%	7.9%	9.7%	5.9%	6.19	5.84	-1.1
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	105	465	97	40	23	88%	4.4	17.6%	7.9%	9.7%	5.9%	6.19	5.84	-1.1
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	105	465	97	40	23	88%	4.4	20.9%	8.6%	12.3%	4.9%	6.19	5.25	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	1	9	50	7	7	3	33%	2.9	14.0%	14.0%	0.0%	6.0%	15.58	8.41	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	31	12	95	433	93	42	12	39%	3.1	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	3.0%	5.99	4.37	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	31	12	95	433	93	42	12	39%	3.1	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	3.0%	5.99	4.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	PIT	31	12	95	433	93	42	12	39%	3.1	21.5%	9.7%	11.8%	2.8%	5.99	4.04	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	PIT	6	0	6	27	5	2	1	0%	1.1	18.2%	7.1%	11.2%	4.1%	5.24	5.11	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	101	460	98	44	13	—	—	21.3%	9.5%	11.7%	2.9%	5.94	4.42	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	113	475	91	34	19	100%	5.9	19.2%	7.1%	12.1%	4.0%	5.04	4.97	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	115	485	94	35	19	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.2%	12.2%	4.0%	4.97	4.95	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	115	485	94	36	20	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.4%	12.0%	4.1%	4.98	5.00	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	110	463	89	35	19	100%	6.1	19.2%	7.6%	11.6%	4.2%	5.05	5.11	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	103	435	82	34	19	100%	6.1	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	4.4%	5.19	5.29	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	54	228	44	16	9	100%	6.0	19.2%	7.1%	12.1%	3.7%	4.87	4.80	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	76	321	62	23	12	100%	5.8	19.4%	7.2%	12.2%	3.7%	4.81	4.79	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	89	376	73	28	14	100%	5.9	19.4%	7.4%	12.0%	3.8%	4.81	4.83	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	91	384	74	29	15	100%	6.1	19.2%	7.6%	11.6%	3.9%	4.88	4.94	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	89	376	71	30	15	100%	5.9	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	4.1%	5.01	5.11	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	68	408	1738	331	133	68	97%	5.8	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.9%	5.11	4.60	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	851	162	65	33	96%	5.8	19.1%	7.7%	11.4%	3.9%	5.11	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		103	80	444	1882	363	141	68	78%	4.3	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	3.6%	4.44	4.40	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	36	200	848	164	63	31	78%	4.3	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	3.6%	4.44	4.40	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas Harrington (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	18.2%	7.1%	4.1%	—	4.97	19.3%	12.1%	342	-0.14	—	—	—
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	77
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	74
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	70
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	70
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	70
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	70
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	69
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	69
Matthew DeRosier R 2018 · 5.67 FIP	24	SP-	5.67	15.1%	9.1%	4.9%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	200	69
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	68
Jeffrey Passantino R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	25	SP	4.97	18.5%	6.8%	4.7%	.298	4.72	14.8%	8.1%	41	-0.25	2.02	242	68
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	67
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	67
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	67
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	67
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	67
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	66
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	66
Daniel Federman R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	24	SP-	4.12	23.8%	8.3%	3.6%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	119	66
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	104	19.1%	7.4%	1.60	5.07
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	2.4	81	18.0%	6.0%	1.67	4.61
Sam Gaviglio ('19)	1.5	98	19.3%	6.9%	1.69	4.84
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.1	74	18.2%	7.8%	1.51	5.02