Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 127 | 526 | 146 | 41 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 2.6% | 3.53 | 3.91 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 127 | 526 | 146 | 41 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 27.8% | 7.8% | 20.0% | 2.7% | 3.53 | 3.20 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 21 | 117 | 458 | 115 | 19 | 9 | 95% | 5.3 | 20.8% | 4.3% | 16.5% | 3.1% | 2.61 | 3.57 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 21 | 117 | 458 | 115 | 19 | 9 | 95% | 5.3 | 25.1% | 4.1% | 21.0% | 2.0% | 2.61 | 2.62 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 21 | 105 | 465 | 97 | 40 | 23 | 88% | 4.4 | 18.5% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 6.19 | 6.16 | -0.9 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 21 | 105 | 465 | 97 | 40 | 23 | 88% | 4.4 | 20.9% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 4.9% | 6.19 | 5.25 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 20 | 6 | 58 | 271 | 56 | 26 | 9 | 30% | 2.9 | 18.2% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 6.52 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PIT | 49 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 41 | 17 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 4.4% | 5.34 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PIT | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 4.4% | 5.34 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 110 | 489 | 97 | 43 | 19 | — | — | 19.9% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 5.96 | 5.05 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 21 | 87 | 17 | 7 | 4 | — | — | 19.0% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 4.4% | 5.34 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 64 | 26 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 4.2% | 5.18 | 5.14 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 76 | 320 | 64 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 4.2% | 5.12 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 73 | 310 | 62 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.1% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | 5.13 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 59 | 25 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 4.4% | 5.21 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 42 | 17 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 4.2% | 5.18 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 49 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 4.2% | 5.12 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 52 | 21 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.1% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | 5.13 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 51 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 4.4% | 5.21 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 39 | 259 | 1108 | 218 | 94 | 48 | 64% | 4.2 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 4.4% | 5.52 | 4.90 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 30 | 200 | 855 | 168 | 73 | 37 | 64% | 4.2 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 4.4% | 5.52 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 92 | 74 | 407 | 1720 | 342 | 136 | 67 | 80% | 4.4 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 3.9% | 4.37 | 4.57 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 36 | 200 | 845 | 168 | 67 | 33 | 80% | 4.4 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 3.9% | 4.37 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Thomas Harrington (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.28 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 4.4% | — | 5.14 | 20.0% | 11.9% | 226 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 75 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 72 |
| Matt Ager R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 71 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 71 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 71 |
| Matthew DeRosier R 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 15.1% | 9.1% | 4.6% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 200 | 70 |
| Jake Dunning R 2027 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 70 |
| Chase Centala R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 69 |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.26 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | .342 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.59 | 4.26 | 165 | 69 |
| Deivi Villafana R 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 14.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 109 | 68 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.50 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 4.8% | .320 | 4.16 | 23.1% | 13.2% | 138 | -1.34 | 3.45 | 292 | 68 |
| Jeffrey Passantino R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.13 | 18.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .298 | 4.58 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 41 | -0.55 | 2.02 | 242 | 68 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .296 | 3.59 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 36 | -0.73 | 3.59 | 327 | 67 |
| Connor McCullough R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.20 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | .217 | 3.62 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 64 | -1.58 | 3.62 | 222 | 67 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 67 |
| Brock Hartson R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.19 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 4.0% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 299 | 67 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 66 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 66 |
| Will Sanders R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.48 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 4.1% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 259 | 66 |
| Daniel Federman R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.34 | 23.8% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 119 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 70 | 19.9% | 8.2% | 1.66 | 5.19 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |