Jake Madden

P Spokane Indians

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 185 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	ACOL	20	20	79	5.90	4.70	21.4%	12.9%	—	K 15.9% · BB 15.2% · FIP 5.46
2024	22	MIX2 levels	33	0	51	3.71	3.45	19.2%	11.6%	—	K 14.1% · BB 15.2% · FIP 4.57
2025	23	A+COL	2	0	4	0.00	2.55	28.6%	14.3%	—	K 28.6% · BB 14.3% · FIP 2.50
2027PROJ	25	MLBCOL	25	0	26	4.77	4.77	21.5%	11.6%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCOL	10	0	11	4.71	4.70	21.9%	11.3%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsBrad Deppermann (age 25) · Jeff Niemann (age 25) · Shohei Tomioka (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%21.5%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	20	20	79	373	80	48	11	100%	4.0	15.9%	15.2%	0.7%	3.2%	5.90	5.46	—
2023	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	20	20	79	373	80	48	11	100%	4.0	21.4%	12.9%	8.6%	2.9%	5.90	4.70	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	51	224	43	26	2	0%	1.5	14.1%	15.2%	-1.1%	1.3%	3.71	4.57	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	51	224	43	26	2	0%	1.5	14.1%	15.2%	-1.1%	1.3%	3.71	4.57	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	51	224	43	26	2	0%	1.5	19.2%	11.6%	7.6%	0.9%	3.71	3.45	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	2	0	4	14	4	2	0	0%	1.8	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.50	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	2	0	4	14	4	2	0	0%	1.8	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.50	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	2	0	4	14	4	2	0	0%	1.8	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	COL	25	0	26	110	24	13	3	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.6%	9.9%	3.0%	4.77	4.77	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	25	0	26	111	24	13	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.3%	10.5%	3.0%	4.71	4.70	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	10	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.3%	10.5%	3.0%	4.71	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	48	10	5	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.4%	10.5%	3.0%	4.71	4.32	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	89	18	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.4%	10.5%	3.0%	4.71	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		55	20	134	611	95	93	15	36%	2.4	15.5%	15.2%	0.3%	2.5%	4.90	5.06	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	30	200	912	142	138	22	36%	2.4	15.5%	15.2%	0.3%	2.5%	4.90	5.06	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Madden (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	21.5%	11.6%	3.0%	—	4.70	21.9%	10.5%	26	-0.07	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	85
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	83
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	81
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	79
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	79
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	77
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	77
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	76
Sean Douglass R 2004 · 4.94 FIP	25	SW	4.94	20.1%	13.4%	3.4%	.274	4.82	14.7%	6.4%	87	-0.12	4.81	200	76
Irving Jimenez R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	25	SW	3.63	18.5%	12.8%	0.9%	.313	4.04	14.1%	1.7%	50	+0.41	3.63	104	76
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	76
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	76
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	76
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	76
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	76
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	76
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	76
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	76
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	75
Michael King R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	21.5%	9.1%	3.9%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.82	1.97	1,024	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	21.7%	11.5%	1.15	4.74
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99