Carson Jacobs

P Birmingham Barons

Age 25 RHP 6'7" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #933

ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	31	38	2.37	1.94	35.4%	14.6%	—	K 21.5% · BB 18.4% · FIP 3.62
2025	23	MIX2 levels	44	58	4.53	3.60	32.9%	14.0%	—	K 25.5% · BB 15.7% · FIP 4.78
2026	24	AACWS	32	44	3.71	3.81	30.8%	21.4%	—	K 25.0% · BB 23.5% · FIP 4.63
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	57	60	5.22	5.22	26.8%	20.0%	-0.5
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCWS	25	26	5.11	5.10	26.7%	18.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCWS	35	37	5.07	5.08	26.4%	18.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Command30FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsCaleb Simpson (age 25) · Kyle Wilcox (age 25) · CJ Weins (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%26.8%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%6.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5060

CMD3030

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	5	0	6	25	9	3	0	0%	1.3	36.0%	12.0%	24.0%	0.0%	1.42	1.58	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	5	0	6	25	9	3	0	0%	1.3	36.0%	12.0%	24.0%	0.0%	1.42	1.68	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	38	164	58	24	0	0%	1.2	21.5%	18.4%	3.1%	0.0%	2.37	3.62	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	38	164	58	24	0	0%	1.2	21.5%	18.4%	3.1%	0.0%	2.37	3.62	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	0	38	164	58	24	0	0%	1.2	35.4%	14.6%	20.7%	0.0%	2.37	1.94	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	58	258	85	36	7	0%	1.3	25.5%	15.7%	9.8%	3.4%	4.53	4.78	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	58	258	85	36	7	0%	1.3	25.5%	15.7%	9.8%	3.4%	4.53	4.78	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	58	258	85	36	7	0%	1.3	32.9%	14.0%	19.0%	2.7%	4.53	3.60	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	32	0	44	201	62	43	2	0%	1.4	25.0%	23.5%	1.5%	1.2%	3.71	4.63	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	32	0	44	201	62	43	2	0%	1.4	25.0%	23.5%	1.5%	1.2%	3.71	4.63	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	32	0	44	201	62	43	2	0%	1.4	30.8%	21.4%	9.5%	1.0%	3.71	3.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	57	0	60	253	68	51	7	0%	1.1	26.8%	20.0%	6.8%	2.7%	5.22	5.22	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	57	0	60	251	67	47	7	0%	1.0	26.7%	18.9%	7.8%	2.7%	5.11	5.10	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	56	0	59	247	65	45	7	0%	1.0	26.4%	18.2%	8.2%	2.8%	5.07	5.08	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	25	0	26	110	29	21	3	0%	1.0	26.7%	18.9%	7.8%	2.7%	5.11	5.10	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	35	0	37	156	41	28	4	0%	1.1	26.4%	18.2%	8.2%	2.8%	5.07	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	71	49	7	0%	1.1	26.5%	18.5%	8.0%	2.8%	5.09	4.71	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	224	155	22	0%	1.1	26.5%	18.5%	8.0%	2.8%	5.09	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		112	0	146	648	160	121	11	0%	1.3	24.7%	18.7%	6.0%	1.7%	3.58	4.32	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	0	200	890	220	166	15	0%	1.3	24.7%	18.7%	6.0%	1.7%	3.58	4.32	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Jacobs (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	26.8%	20.0%	2.7%	—	5.09	26.6%	8.0%	118	-0.13	—	—	—
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	88
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	86
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	86
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	85
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	85
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	85
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	83
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	83
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	82
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	82
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	82
Conor Grammes R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	28.6%	16.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	20.8%	1.1%	128	-0.12	4.11	171	81
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	81
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	81
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	527	81
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	81
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	80
Isaac Stebens R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	24.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.328	4.14	21.1%	5.6%	50	+0.01	4.13	102	80
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	80
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	26.7%	19.0%	1.05	5.13
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*