Walin Castillo — OGILVIE

Walin Castillo P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149140vR 132

ERA6.08

FIP6.08

K%10.7%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%-4.3%

ROS IP59

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	10	9	33	138	36	9	3	90%	3.3	17.7%	8.2%	9.6%	2.4%	2.70	3.97	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	10	9	33	138	36	9	3	90%	3.3	26.1%	6.5%	19.6%	2.2%	2.70	2.92	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	9	3	32	128	26	12	4	33%	3.5	13.8%	11.7%	2.1%	4.4%	1.42	5.83	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	9	3	32	128	26	12	4	33%	3.5	13.8%	11.7%	2.1%	4.4%	1.42	5.83	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	9	3	32	128	26	12	4	33%	3.5	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	3.1%	1.42	4.24	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	74	306	53	24	3	78%	4.1	12.4%	9.3%	3.0%	1.4%	3.53	4.02	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	74	306	53	24	3	78%	4.1	12.4%	9.3%	3.0%	1.4%	3.53	4.02	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	74	306	53	24	3	78%	4.1	17.3%	7.8%	9.5%	1.0%	3.53	3.17	—
2025	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	13	85	390	66	45	9	59%	3.8	12.5%	13.6%	-1.1%	2.9%	6.27	5.36	—
2025	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	13	85	390	66	45	9	59%	3.8	12.5%	13.6%	-1.1%	2.9%	6.27	5.36	—
2025	20	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	13	85	390	66	45	9	59%	3.8	16.9%	11.5%	5.4%	2.3%	6.27	4.52	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	17	15	71	321	61	37	8	88%	4.2	14.1%	13.6%	0.5%	3.2%	5.43	5.41	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	17	15	71	321	61	37	8	88%	4.2	14.1%	13.6%	0.5%	3.2%	5.43	5.41	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	MIA	17	15	71	321	61	37	8	88%	4.2	19.0%	11.5%	7.5%	2.5%	5.43	4.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	80	338	47	46	10	100%	5.3	14.0%	13.7%	0.3%	2.9%	5.72	5.60	-0.6
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	83	350	56	45	10	100%	5.5	15.9%	12.7%	3.2%	2.8%	5.43	5.30	-0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	85	359	61	44	10	100%	5.7	17.1%	12.2%	4.9%	2.8%	5.23	5.12	-0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	86	364	65	44	10	100%	5.7	17.7%	12.0%	5.7%	2.8%	5.11	5.04	-0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	86	364	65	43	10	100%	6.2	18.0%	11.9%	6.0%	2.8%	5.05	5.01	-0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	85	358	64	43	10	100%	6.1	18.0%	12.0%	5.9%	2.8%	5.05	5.05	-0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	82	348	62	42	10	100%	5.9	17.8%	12.2%	5.7%	2.9%	5.10	5.13	-0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	79	332	65	39	10	100%	6.1	19.6%	11.6%	8.0%	3.1%	5.04	4.99	-0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	74	312	60	37	10	100%	6.2	19.2%	11.9%	7.4%	3.3%	5.12	5.17	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	39	165	23	23	4	100%	5.6	14.0%	13.7%	0.3%	2.7%	5.64	5.52	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	60	253	40	32	7	100%	5.5	15.9%	12.7%	3.2%	2.7%	5.35	5.22	-0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	70	296	51	36	8	100%	5.8	17.1%	12.2%	4.9%	2.7%	5.15	5.04	-0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	76	321	57	38	9	100%	5.8	17.7%	12.0%	5.7%	2.7%	5.03	4.96	-0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	79	334	60	40	9	100%	6.1	18.0%	11.9%	6.0%	2.7%	4.97	4.93	-0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	79	334	60	40	9	100%	6.1	18.0%	12.0%	5.9%	2.7%	4.97	4.97	-0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	77	325	58	40	9	100%	5.9	17.8%	12.2%	5.7%	2.8%	5.02	5.05	-0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	75	317	62	37	9	100%	6.2	19.6%	11.6%	8.0%	2.9%	4.96	4.91	-0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	70	296	57	35	9	100%	5.8	19.2%	11.9%	7.4%	3.1%	5.03	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	107	626	2643	468	321	73	100%	5.9	17.7%	12.2%	5.6%	2.8%	5.09	4.67	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	150	103	23	100%	5.8	17.7%	12.2%	5.6%	2.8%	5.09	4.67	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		76	54	295	1283	174	152	35	71%	3.9	13.6%	11.8%	1.7%	2.7%	4.45	4.95	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	870	118	103	24	71%	3.9	13.6%	11.8%	1.7%	2.7%	4.45	4.95	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Walin Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.08	10.7%	15.0%	2.9%	—	5.33	15.7%	2.8%	248	-0.75	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	92
Moises Ruiz R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	8.7%	12.8%	3.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	104	86
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	86
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.16	333	84
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	84
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	83
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	83
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	81
Stiven Cruz R 2023 · 6.36 FIP	21	SP-	6.36	13.6%	14.8%	4.6%	.312	4.91	17.3%	6.4%	192	-1.45	2.84	426	80
Edrick Agosto R 2017 · 6.67 FIP	20	SP-	6.67	11.4%	17.1%	4.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	113	79
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	79
Luis Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	19	SP-	4.96	12.8%	12.5%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	111	79
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	79
Igol Feliz R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	7.2%	12.4%	1.5%	.234	5.77	6.7%	-2.1%	73	+0.87	4.90	135	79
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	79
Ramon Santos R 2016 · 5.00 FIP	21	SP-	5.00	12.7%	10.6%	3.0%	.323	4.18	15.6%	5.5%	199	-0.82	3.74	355	79
Rafael Martinez R 2021 · 5.68 FIP	21	SP-	5.68	15.3%	14.3%	3.8%	.366	2.50	19.4%	11.2%	18	-3.18	2.50	104	78
Donal Montas R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	21	SP	5.66	8.4%	13.3%	2.9%	.268	4.87	10.2%	-4.0%	78	-0.79	4.10	156	78
Edinxon Arias R 2017 · 7.03 FIP	19	SP	7.03	7.6%	19.9%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	127	78
Jefry Rodriguez R 2015 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	9.9%	14.6%	2.0%	.286	4.07	16.6%	5.2%	333	-1.13	3.30	578	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	80	17.0%	12.5%	1.13	5.27
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04