Walin Castillo

P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2033

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1126ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	18	14	74	3.53	3.17	17.3%	7.8%	—	K 12.4% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.02
2025	20	AMIA	22	13	85	6.27	4.52	16.9%	11.5%	—	K 12.5% · BB 13.6% · FIP 5.36
2026	21	AMIA	17	15	71	5.43	4.40	19.0%	11.5%	—	K 14.1% · BB 13.6% · FIP 5.41
2027PROJ	22	MLBMIA	—	—	0	5.79	5.79	14.2%	14.7%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBMIA	5	5	28	5.40	5.28	16.7%	13.2%	0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBMIA	7	7	40	5.14	5.02	18.2%	12.2%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 22) · Jacob Meador (age 23) · Danny Flatt (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.79

FIP5.79

K%14.2%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%-0.5%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	10	9	33	138	36	9	3	90%	3.3	17.7%	8.2%	9.6%	2.4%	2.70	3.97	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	10	9	33	138	36	9	3	90%	3.3	26.1%	6.5%	19.6%	2.2%	2.70	2.92	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	9	3	32	128	26	12	4	33%	3.5	13.8%	11.7%	2.1%	4.4%	1.42	5.83	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	9	3	32	128	26	12	4	33%	3.5	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	3.1%	1.42	4.24	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	74	306	53	24	3	78%	4.1	12.4%	9.3%	3.0%	1.4%	3.53	4.02	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	74	306	53	24	3	78%	4.1	12.4%	9.3%	3.0%	1.4%	3.53	4.02	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	74	306	53	24	3	78%	4.1	17.3%	7.8%	9.5%	1.0%	3.53	3.17	—
2025	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	13	85	390	66	45	9	59%	3.8	12.5%	13.6%	-1.1%	2.9%	6.27	5.36	—
2025	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	13	85	390	66	45	9	59%	3.8	12.5%	13.6%	-1.1%	2.9%	6.27	5.36	—
2025	20	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	13	85	390	66	45	9	59%	3.8	16.9%	11.5%	5.4%	2.3%	6.27	4.52	—
2026	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	17	15	71	321	61	37	8	88%	4.2	14.1%	13.6%	0.5%	3.2%	5.43	5.41	—
2026	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	17	15	71	321	61	37	8	88%	4.2	14.1%	13.6%	0.5%	3.2%	5.43	5.41	—
2026	21	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	17	15	71	321	61	37	8	88%	4.2	19.0%	11.5%	7.5%	2.5%	5.43	4.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.2%	14.7%	-0.5%	3.0%	5.79	5.79	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	58	243	41	32	7	100%	5.2	16.7%	13.2%	3.5%	3.0%	5.48	5.36	+0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	58	243	44	30	7	100%	5.8	18.2%	12.2%	6.0%	2.9%	5.22	5.10	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	52	219	42	25	6	100%	5.8	19.0%	11.6%	7.4%	2.9%	5.03	4.94	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	52	218	42	25	6	100%	5.7	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	2.9%	4.94	4.89	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	50	212	41	24	6	100%	6.3	19.4%	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	4.93	4.93	+0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	52	219	46	24	7	100%	5.8	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	3.1%	4.82	4.74	+0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	48	203	43	22	7	100%	6.0	21.0%	11.1%	10.0%	3.2%	4.85	4.87	+0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	44	184	38	21	6	100%	6.2	20.7%	11.3%	9.3%	3.4%	4.97	5.05	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	5	5	28	118	20	16	3	100%	5.6	16.7%	13.2%	3.5%	2.8%	5.40	5.28	+0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	40	169	31	21	5	100%	5.7	18.2%	12.2%	6.0%	2.8%	5.14	5.02	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	42	177	34	20	5	100%	6.0	19.0%	11.6%	7.4%	2.8%	4.95	4.86	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	45	190	37	22	5	100%	5.6	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	2.8%	4.86	4.81	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	45	190	37	22	5	100%	5.6	19.4%	11.5%	7.9%	2.8%	4.85	4.85	+0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	48	203	43	22	6	100%	6.0	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	2.9%	4.74	4.66	+0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	45	190	40	21	6	100%	5.6	21.0%	11.1%	10.0%	3.1%	4.76	4.78	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	41	173	36	20	6	100%	5.9	20.7%	11.3%	9.3%	3.2%	4.88	4.96	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	57	334	1412	277	163	41	100%	5.9	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.50	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	166	97	25	100%	5.9	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.50	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		76	54	295	1283	174	152	35	71%	3.9	13.6%	11.8%	1.7%	2.7%	4.45	4.95	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	870	118	103	24	71%	3.9	13.6%	11.8%	1.7%	2.7%	4.45	4.95	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 71 IPFIP 4.32 → 5.41 (+1.09)K% 19.0% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.00%	—	×0.740	14.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.53%	—	×1.180	13.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.49%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.24%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.32 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 85 IPFIP 4.40 → 5.36 (+0.96)K% 16.9% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.92%	—	×0.740	12.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.180	13.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.31%	÷1.035	×1.300	2.90%

Result: FIP 4.40 → 5.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 51 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.76 (+0.86)K% 13.6% → 10.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.57%	—	×0.740	10.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.50%	—	×1.180	11.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.36%	÷0.888	×1.300	1.99%

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Marlins · 23 IPFIP 1.26 → 2.11 (+0.84)K% 27.1% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.06%	—	×0.680	18.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.53%	—	×1.250	4.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.898	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 1.26 → 2.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Marlins · 32 IPFIP 4.29 → 5.83 (+1.54)K% 20.3% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.31%	—	×0.680	13.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.250	11.72%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷0.995	×1.400	4.40%

Result: FIP 4.29 → 5.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Miami · 33 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.97 (+1.06)K% 26.1% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.680	17.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.52%	—	×1.250	8.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷1.249	×1.400	2.44%

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Walin Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	5.14	17.9%	5.6%	167	-0.65	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	89
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	86
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	85
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	85
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	150	-0.98	3.60	209	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	83
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	83
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	83
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	83
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	83
Camilo Sanchez R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	21	SP-	5.26	15.2%	14.0%	3.1%	.289	7.17	13.8%	-0.2%	19	+1.91	3.57	117	83
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	83
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	83
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	82
Jurgen Jimenez R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP-	5.25	11.5%	13.3%	2.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	158	82
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	81
Mitchell Boggs R 2008 · 5.80 FIP	24	SP-	5.80	7.9%	13.4%	3.0%	.298	3.63	18.0%	8.6%	186	-2.17	3.21	330	81
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	81
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	52	18.8%	12.0%	1.17	5.13
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*