Walin Castillo — OGILVIE

Walin Castillo P Jupiter Hammerheads

+0.0 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.2 · 2031

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%18.8%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%8.1%

IP85

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2031

K†4555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Miami	10	9	33	138	36	9	3	17.7%	8.2%	2.1%	2.70	3.80	+0.4
2023	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	9	3	32	128	26	12	4	13.8%	11.7%	4.4%	1.42	5.84	-0.3
2024	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	18	14	74	306	53	24	3	12.4%	9.3%	1.6%	3.53	4.11	+0.8
2025	20	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	22	13	85	390	66	45	9	12.5%	13.6%	2.9%	6.27	5.35	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	2	2	7	27	7	5	0	—	—	—	1.29	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	MIA	15	15	85	358	67	38	10	18.8%	10.7%	2.9%	4.86	4.86	+0.3
2026 Total	21	MLB	MIA	—	—	92	385	74	43	10	19.3%	11.3%	2.7%	4.59	4.49	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	MIA	20	20	111	468	95	45	13	20.3%	9.7%	2.9%	4.66	4.56	+0.9
2028	23	MLB	MIA	25	25	135	570	121	52	16	21.3%	9.0%	2.8%	4.48	4.38	+1.4
2029	24	MLB	MIA	28	28	154	652	143	56	18	21.9%	8.7%	2.8%	4.35	4.27	+1.8
2030	25	MLB	MIA	31	31	168	711	158	60	20	22.3%	8.5%	2.8%	4.27	4.21	+2.1
2031	26	MLB	MIA	32	32	175	741	166	63	21	22.5%	8.4%	2.8%	4.22	4.19	+2.2
2032	27	MLB	MIA	32	32	174	735	165	62	21	22.5%	8.5%	2.8%	4.21	4.20	+2.2
2033	28	MLB	MIA	32	32	174	733	164	62	21	22.4%	8.5%	2.8%	4.22	4.23	+2.1
2034	29	MLB	MIA	31	31	170	716	160	62	21	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	4.25	4.27	+2.0
2035	30	MLB	MIA	30	30	164	695	153	60	21	22.1%	8.7%	3.0%	4.30	4.33	+1.8
2036	31	MLB	MIA	29	29	159	670	146	59	20	21.9%	8.8%	3.0%	4.37	4.41	+1.6
2037	32	MLB	MIA	28	28	152	643	139	58	20	21.6%	9.0%	3.1%	4.45	4.50	+1.4
2038	33	MLB	MIA	26	26	146	614	131	56	20	21.3%	9.2%	3.2%	4.54	4.59	+1.2
2039	34	MLB	MIA	25	25	138	584	122	55	19	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	4.64	4.70	+0.9
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			61	41	231	989	136	113	25	13.7%	11.4%	2.5%	4.06	4.76	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—			53	36	200	858	118	98	22	13.7%	11.4%	2.5%	4.06	4.76	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Walin Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	18.8%	10.7%	2.9%	—	4.39	21.3%	12.2%	400	-0.47	—	—	—
Jake Peppers R 2027 · 5.10 FIP	22	SP-	5.10	15.3%	12.2%	3.2%	.293	4.80	15.7%	0.5%	63	-0.30	4.80	160	92
Chris McElvain R 2027 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP-	4.78	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	4.29	16.7%	6.6%	122	-0.49	4.06	218	91
Braden Webb R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	91
Jacob Meador R 2028 · 5.35 FIP	23	SP-	5.35	15.6%	14.0%	3.3%	.301	6.74	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.35	139	90
Jason Savacool R 2027 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP-	4.79	14.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.275	4.29	16.6%	5.0%	102	-0.50	4.29	199	90
Micah Ottenbreit R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	21	SP-	4.31	17.9%	11.8%	2.2%	.305	3.04	14.7%	10.3%	24	-1.27	3.04	118	90
Kyle Johnston R 2027 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.2%	13.8%	1.9%	.290	4.08	16.4%	4.5%	194	-0.44	3.80	395	90
Torey Deshazier R 2026 · 5.50 FIP	21	SP-	5.50	12.7%	12.8%	3.4%	.319	5.32	14.8%	-10.6%	41	-0.18	5.32	127	89
Chad Dallas R 2027 · 5.89 FIP	22	SP-	5.89	16.4%	14.5%	4.2%	.282	4.74	20.1%	10.0%	184	-1.15	4.57	272	88
Chase Cohen R 2027 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.28	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.41	3.54	263	88
Garrett Cave R 2027 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	88
Reese Olson R 2025 · 4.83 FIP	20	SP-	4.83	14.6%	13.0%	2.4%	.336	4.04	23.7%	13.2%	224	-0.79	3.00	640	88
David Palladino R 2027 · 4.93 FIP	22	SP-	4.93	14.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	122	88
Zack Bird R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	21	SP-	4.55	18.1%	15.6%	1.8%	.281	5.34	10.8%	-7.7%	48	+0.79	4.55	149	88
Hayden Merda R 2028 · 5.20 FIP	23	SP-	5.20	16.1%	15.3%	2.8%	.325	4.97	21.5%	6.1%	54	-0.23	4.97	150	87
Hunter Parks R 2026 · 5.29 FIP	21	SP-	5.29	18.7%	16.8%	3.0%	.312	5.29	17.8%	-0.6%	163	+0.00	5.01	246	87
Adam Hill R 2027 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	15.6%	12.6%	2.9%	.297	6.14	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.15	4.99	213	87
Devereaux Harrison R 2027 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	17.6%	11.3%	3.5%	.252	4.82	17.2%	4.7%	230	-0.14	4.73	324	87
Cobi Johnson R 2028 · 5.57 FIP	23	SP-	5.57	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.55	19.9%	1.4%	41	-1.02	4.55	140	87
Tanner Houck R 2027 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	16.5%	13.3%	2.9%	.294	3.10	24.3%	14.8%	215	-1.86	2.28	733	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.2	$20M	+$20M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.2	$21M	+$20M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.1	$21M	+$20M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+2.0	$20M	+$18M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.8	$19M	+$16M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$8M		$101M	+$93M