Wilton Lara — OGILVIE

Wilton Lara3B FCL Astros

Age 23 R/R 5'11" / 175 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 100 proj PA

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .257 / .289

PA100

HR2

K%33

BB%6

ISO96

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	ROK	DSL HOU Orange	—	148	132	30	7	0	3	11	36	5	14	7	227	311	348	659	121	290	24	7	302	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	147	134	27	11	1	2	8	56	4	11	1	201	267	343	610	142	325	38	5	273	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	152	127	34	5	1	3	14	20	7	14	3	268	372	394	765	126	290	13	9	341	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	18	16	0	0	0	0	1	10	1	1	0		111		111			56	6	80	-77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	18	17	5	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	294	333	529	863	235	364	28	6	377	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	FCL Astros	—	116	102	20	4	0	6	9	43	3	2	0	196	281	412	692	216	259	37	8	303	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	—	148	136	19	4	0	2	7	45	5	14	7	140	209	213	423	74	182	30	5	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	147	136	13	5	0	1	6	68	4	11	1	96	158	154	312	59	185	46	4	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	152	131	22	3	1	1	10	25	7	14	3	168	264	229	493	61	178	16	7	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	18	16	0	0	0	0	1	13	1	1	0		111		111			72	6	55	-77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	18	17	5	1	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	294	333	529	863	235	328	39	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	116	105	11	2	0	3	6	63	3	2	0	105	175	210	385	105	193	54	5	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	—	148	136	19	4	0	2	7	45	5	14	7	140	209	213	423	74	191	30	5	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Orange	—	148	132	30	7	0	3	11	36	5	14	7	227	311	348	659	121	290	24	7	302	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	147	136	13	5	0	1	6	68	4	11	1	96	158	154	312	59	176	46	4	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	147	134	27	11	1	2	8	56	4	11	1	201	267	343	610	142	325	38	5	273	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	152	131	22	3	1	1	10	25	7	14	3	168	264	229	493	61	194	16	7	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	152	127	34	5	1	3	14	20	7	14	3	268	372	394	765	126	290	13	9	341	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	152	139	16	3	0	4	7	83	4	3	0	115	180	223	403	108	226	55	5	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	3 teams	—	152	135	25	5	0	7	11	58	4	3	0	185	267	378	644	193	254	38	7	285	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	—	148	135	19	4	0	2	7	45	5	14	7	141	209	215	424	74	182	30	5	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	147	136	13	5	0	1	6	68	4	11	1	96	158	154	312	59	185	46	4	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	152	134	22	3	1	1	10	25	7	14	3	164	264	224	487	60	178	16	7	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	152	140	16	3	0	4	7	83	4	3	0	114	180	221	401	107	186	55	5	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	152	134	22	3	1	1	10	25	7	14	3	164	264	224	487	60	178	16	7	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	152	140	16	3	0	4	7	83	4	3	0	114	180	221	401	107	186	55	5	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	262	239	47	8	2	4	17	86	4	5	1	196	259	292	551	96	284	33	6	251	56	-14	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	30%	149	136	28	5	1	3	10	48	2	3	1	200	264	305	569	104	285	32	7	258	61	-7	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	30%	45	41	8	1	0	1	3	15	1	1	0	202	267	307	574	105	289	33	7	260	61	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	45	41	8	1	0	1	3	15	1	1	0	195	267	293	559	98	280	33	7	260	23	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	115	14	0	14	43	217	14	14	0	194	265	289	553	95	280	33	7	260	23	-30	+3	+0	+2	+14	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	848	771	117	23	3	13	46	302	23	47	12	152	221	240	461	88	225	36	5	202	23	-12	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	90	18	2	10	35	231	18	36	9	152	222	240	463	88	225	36	5	202	23	-32	+2	+0	+2	+14	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Wilton Lara (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	194/257/289	95	284	2	2	33%	6%	56	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bryson Ware 2024 · A	23	39→32	44→45	50	40	196/260/308	112	283	12	11	34%	7%	61	-1.5	189/249/307	118	281	13	11	36%	6%	56	-1.9	182/242/307	125	267	15	11	36%	6%	51	-1.4
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	39	43→45	51→55	40	194/269/303	109	291	11	13	35%	7%	63	-1.3	205/275/304	99	311	8	12	34%	8%	65	-1.2	176/264/251	75	285	3	11	36%	10%	48	-0.5
✕E.J. Exposito 2024 · A	23	37→33	41→50	50→55	43	177/262/268	90	293	9	14	39%	9%	53	-2.1	189/246/321	132	265	16	17	34%	6%	59	-1.7	184/237/328	144	240	19	19	32%	6%	55	-1.5
✕Taylor Snyder 2018 · A	23	36→33	43→50	47→50	32	184/226/296	112	275	11	13	37%	4%	45	-2.7	192/238/311	119	300	12	12	38%	5%	53	-2.1	186/235/335	149	266	18	12	36%	5%	56	-1.3
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	38→30	42→45	48→50	41	192/253/286	94	259	11	15	30%	6%	53	-2.1	198/271/310	112	262	13	14	28%	8%	66	-1.1	186/264/278	92	250	9	8	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Sammy Infante 2024 · A	23	37→26	42→45	50→55	37	183/252/282	99	292	10	15	39%	7%	52	-2.2	200/263/295	95	313	8	15	36%	7%	59	-1.7	164/228/246	82	264	6	18	38%	6%	32	-0.9
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→30	45	50	37	195/253/316	121	280	13	12	34%	6%	60	-1.6	211/268/301	90	312	8	17	33%	6%	61	-1.5	216/273/285	69	324	7	24	33%	6%	57	-1.2
✕Fabian Pertuz 2024 · AA	23	35→36	40	51→55	36	179/227/266	87	258	7	13	33%	5%	38	-3.2	186/239/281	95	297	9	11	38%	6%	46	-2.6	156/208/244	89	265	10	7	43%	5%	24	-2.2
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	35	40→45	53→50	34	180/213/275	96	257	7	9	33%	4%	34	-3.5	216/263/300	84	296	5	9	27%	6%	59	-1.7	236/292/311	74	314	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Nick Quintana 2021 · A	23	39→40	39→45	49→45	36	186/240/271	86	298	6	9	38%	6%	44	-2.8	181/264/286	105	253	11	5	31%	9%	58	-1.7	163/255/263	100	223	10	3	30%	9%	47	-1.3
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	188/250/319	131	265	15	10	34%	6%	60	-1.6	206/269/349	143	296	16	9	34%	6%	74	-0.6	201/265/348	147	289	17	7	35%	6%	70	-0.3
✕Brandon Downes 2016 · A	23	39→34	44→50	49→50	34	198/241/322	124	289	11	12	35%	4%	57	-1.8	187/239/322	135	289	15	11	39%	5%	56	-1.9	171/227/307	136	265	16	10	40%	5%	46	-1.6
✕James Parker 2023 · A	23	38→28	43→50	50→45	37	187/247/298	110	305	10	7	40%	7%	53	-2.1	188/259/319	131	341	15	7	45%	8%	63	-1.4	151/235/301	150	278	21	4	50%	10%	48	-1.2
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	178/253/255	77	262	8	14	33%	8%	47	-2.6	205/278/293	88	286	6	12	28%	9%	64	-1.3	205/285/293	88	279	5	13	26%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Chris Roller 2019 · A	22	39	41→45	51→55	42	190/265/292	102	283	8	14	34%	8%	59	-1.6	204/267/311	107	290	7	12	30%	6%	63	-1.3	179/266/281	102	259	10	19	32%	8%	57	-1.0
✕Sandy Santos 2017 · A	23	39	41→50	49→55	41	194/257/297	103	274	9	10	31%	7%	57	-1.8	191/257/290	99	366	9	11	46%	7%	55	-1.9	118/200/206	87	251	12	16	54%	8%	13	-1.2
✕Sean McLain 2024 · A	23	42→34	42→40	50	40	204/268/303	100	299	10	11	34%	7%	63	-1.4	180/257/269	89	270	8	10	34%	7%	51	-2.2	168/248/254	86	250	8	11	33%	7%	42	-1.7
✕Tate Blackman 2018 · A	23	39→34	42→45	49→40	43	194/265/299	104	264	9	4	29%	7%	61	-1.5	177/248/271	94	297	10	4	41%	7%	48	-2.5	156/231/243	86	268	10	3	43%	7%	35	-2.4
✕Felix Stevens 2021 · A	22	41→36	40→50	48→45	41	194/265/291	97	300	7	8	35%	7%	59	-1.7	190/248/327	137	321	15	5	43%	6%	61	-1.5	183/258/337	154	293	20	5	42%	8%	65	-0.8
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	36	43→50	49→40	39	181/242/290	109	276	11	4	37%	7%	50	-2.3	203/259/322	119	277	12	4	30%	6%	63	-1.3	215/280/358	143	272	16	1	27%	7%	77	-0.1