Wilton Lara — OGILVIE

Wilton Lara3B FCL Astros

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 175 lbs ROK H +4%HR -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2030

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .266 / .320

PA144

HR3

K%35

BB%7

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

24↗29

PWR

42↗47

SPD

53↗58

EYE

41↗46

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.0M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	—	—	—
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$7M		$2M	-$5M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL HOU Orange	148	137	20	4	0	2	6	54	5	14	7	.146	.209	.219	.428	.073	.222	36	4	.195	7	-15	+0	+0	+1	+4	-1.1
2023	19	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	147	137	13	5	0	1	5	80	4	11	1	.095	.151	.153	.304	.058	.211	54	3	.148	-28	-21	+2	+0	+1	+4	-1.5
2024	20	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	152	132	26	4	1	2	9	30	7	14	3	.197	.284	.288	.572	.091	.233	20	6	.251	50	-9	+2	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
2025	21	ROK	3 teams	152	139	16	3	0	4	7	85	4	3	0	.115	.180	.223	.403	.108	.235	56	5	.175	-8	-19	+1	+0	+1	+4	-1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	HOU	144	130	26	5	1	3	11	50	2	3	1	.200	.273	.323	.596	.123	.284	35	8	.267	62	-6	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB 11%	HOU	220	198	40	7	1	6	17	73	3	5	1	.202	.275	.338	.614	.136	.285	33	8	.278	71	-7	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.0
2028	24	MLB 26%	HOU	322	287	60	11	2	9	27	104	5	7	2	.209	.288	.355	.644	.146	.286	32	8	.286	77	-8	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.3
2029	25	MLB 43%	HOU	383	343	72	13	2	11	32	121	5	9	2	.210	.287	.356	.643	.146	.288	32	8	.291	81	-8	+1	+0	+1	+11	0.5
2030	26	MLB 58%	HOU	421	376	80	15	2	12	36	132	6	10	2	.213	.292	.359	.651	.146	.288	31	9	.294	83	-8	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.7
2031	27	MLB 76%	HOU	439	392	83	15	2	13	38	138	6	10	2	.212	.291	.360	.651	.148	.288	31	9	.294	83	-8	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.7
2032	28	MLB 84%	HOU	445	397	83	15	2	13	39	141	6	10	2	.209	.290	.355	.645	.146	.288	32	9	.292	82	-9	+1	-1	+2	+13	0.6
2033	29	MLB 90%	HOU	442	394	83	15	2	13	39	141	6	9	1	.211	.292	.358	.649	.147	.287	32	9	.290	80	-10	+1	-1	+2	+13	0.4
2034	30	MLB	HOU	437	389	81	15	2	12	39	141	6	9	1	.208	.290	.350	.640	.141	.285	32	9	.287	78	-11	+1	-2	+2	+12	0.2
2035	31	MLB	HOU	426	379	78	14	2	12	38	139	6	8	0	.206	.288	.348	.637	.142	.284	33	9	.283	75	-12	+2	-3	+2	+12	0.0
2036	32	MLB	HOU	409	365	73	13	2	11	36	136	5	7	0	.200	.281	.337	.618	.137	.282	33	9	.279	72	-13	+1	-4	+1	+12	-0.2
2037	33	MLB	HOU	381	339	67	12	2	9	34	129	5	7	0	.198	.280	.324	.605	.127	.280	34	9	.273	67	-14	+1	-4	+1	+11	-0.5
2038	34	MLB	HOU	337	300	57	10	1	8	30	117	4	6	0	.190	.272	.310	.582	.120	.278	35	9	.267	62	-14	+1	-5	+1	+10	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5405	4834	958	176	24	141	443	1811	85	142	25	.198	.277	.332	.609	.134	.281	34	8	.275	68	-194	+18	-20	+19	+153	-2.3
/ 162G	—			650	581	115	21	3	17	53	218	10	17	3	.198	.276	.332	.608	.134	.281	34	8	.275	68	-23	+2	-2	+2	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL HOU Orange	148	132	30	7	0	3	11	36	5	14	7	.227	.311	.348	.659	.121	.290	24	7	.302	89	-2	+0	—	—	+4	0.2
2023	19	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	147	134	27	11	1	2	8	56	4	11	1	.201	.267	.343	.610	.142	.325	38	5	.273	67	-5	+2	—	—	+4	0.1
2024	20	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	152	127	34	5	1	3	14	20	7	14	3	.268	.372	.394	.765	.126	.290	13	9	.341	119	+3	+2	—	—	+4	0.9
2025	21	A+	Asheville Tourists	18	16	0	0	0	0	1	10	1	1	0	.000	.111	.000	.111	.000	.000	56	6	.080	-81	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	18	17	5	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	.294	.333	.529	.863	.235	.364	28	6	.377	146	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	21	ROK	FCL Astros	116	102	20	4	0	6	9	43	3	2	0	.196	.281	.412	.692	.216	.259	37	8	.303	90	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Wilton Lara (OGILVIE)	22	24→29	42→47	53→58	46	.194/.266/.320	.126	.284	3	3	35%	7%	62	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A	22	36	48→50	54→50	37	.191/.251/.335	.144	.272	16	14	35%	6%	59	-1.1	.202/.261/.344	.142	.302	17	13	37%	7%	66	-0.6	.180/.244/.304	.124	.276	15	12	39%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Tucker Mitchell 2023 · A	22	38	43→50	51→45	35	.183/.259/.287	.104	.311	11	11	42%	6%	51	-1.7	.198/.263/.310	.112	.287	13	7	34%	6%	58	-1.2	.185/.242/.280	.095	.261	13	5	33%	5%	38	-1.0
✕Niko Hulsizer 2019 · A	22	44→30	47→60	51→50	42	.211/.300/.348	.138	.322	15	12	36%	8%	84	+0.6	.206/.285/.382	.176	.328	21	9	41%	8%	86	+0.8	.193/.269/.393	.200	.316	27	12	45%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Jase Bowen 2023 · A	22	39→40	44→45	54→55	35	.194/.253/.305	.111	.299	13	14	38%	6%	52	-1.6	.200/.252/.326	.126	.285	15	18	34%	5%	57	-1.2	.198/.249/.325	.127	.276	15	22	33%	5%	52	-1.2
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	41→32	45→55	53→50	39	.208/.253/.334	.126	.273	12	15	28%	5%	59	-1.1	.188/.236/.349	.161	.267	20	5	37%	5%	56	-1.3	.194/.269/.375	.181	.237	26	7	31%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Alexander Canario 2022 · A	22	37→34	51→60	50	37	.200/.246/.359	.159	.282	20	14	36%	6%	63	-0.8	.212/.272/.410	.198	.294	26	14	36%	7%	88	+0.9	.209/.277/.424	.216	.279	30	13	36%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Travis Demeritte 2017 · A	22	36→43	49→60	52→50	36	.181/.248/.330	.149	.316	17	11	46%	8%	56	-1.3	.194/.257/.351	.157	.294	18	8	38%	7%	66	-0.6	.204/.271/.391	.188	.288	24	7	37%	8%	79	+0.2
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	.190/.256/.326	.136	.273	15	10	35%	6%	59	-1.1	.205/.269/.352	.147	.297	17	9	35%	6%	72	-0.2	.199/.264/.350	.151	.290	18	7	36%	6%	66	-0.2
✕Garrett Whitley 2019 · A	22	43→38	46→50	53→55	43	.208/.286/.334	.126	.321	13	14	37%	9%	74	-0.1	.185/.267/.317	.132	.351	12	14	46%	9%	62	-0.9	.167/.259/.310	.143	.294	15	18	44%	10%	54	-0.9
✕Yu Chang 2018 · AA	22	37→44	49→50	49→45	39	.195/.252/.345	.150	.266	17	9	33%	6%	63	-0.9	.209/.268/.346	.137	.291	14	7	32%	7%	69	-0.4	.213/.268/.374	.161	.271	20	6	29%	6%	75	-0.0
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	39	44→45	51→55	40	.195/.268/.308	.113	.290	12	13	35%	7%	59	-1.1	.200/.270/.300	.100	.307	9	12	35%	8%	58	-1.2	.166/.253/.240	.073	.276	4	11	37%	10%	33	-0.6
✕Chris Turner 2006 · A	22	46→33	49→55	52→45	37	.227/.277/.382	.155	.318	15	9	33%	5%	82	+0.5	.198/.250/.350	.152	.319	18	5	42%	5%	63	-0.9	.178/.231/.334	.156	.284	19	2	43%	5%	49	-1.4
✕Marcus Chiu 2019 · A	22	42→27	45	52→45	38	.206/.285/.332	.126	.287	12	11	31%	5%	74	-0.1	.180/.269/.303	.123	.308	14	7	43%	7%	60	-1.0	.163/.249/.283	.120	.275	15	3	43%	7%	43	-1.3
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2016 · A	23	41→37	49→50	53→50	39	.211/.272/.359	.148	.288	17	9	32%	6%	75	-0.0	.211/.274/.346	.135	.297	14	11	32%	6%	72	-0.2	.206/.277/.356	.150	.287	18	9	33%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2017 · A	22	35	46→50	45→40	40	.185/.251/.313	.128	.265	15	5	35%	7%	53	-1.5	.209/.268/.329	.120	.279	13	4	28%	7%	65	-0.7	.211/.271/.321	.110	.275	12	2	27%	7%	61	-0.4
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→34	44→45	49→50	40	.200/.267/.320	.119	.267	12	8	29%	6%	63	-0.9	.206/.277/.341	.135	.271	14	9	29%	6%	72	-0.2	.206/.284/.354	.148	.258	17	10	26%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Corey Joyce 2022 · AA	23	41	39→45	53→50	39	.193/.262/.274	.080	.300	7	13	36%	7%	48	-1.9	.208/.307/.328	.120	.294	12	12	31%	10%	82	+0.5	.212/.315/.318	.105	.301	9	14	29%	10%	80	+0.2
✕Jake Rogers 2017 · A	22	44→40	41→55	51→45	38	.208/.270/.309	.102	.325	9	8	37%	7%	60	-1.0	.199/.266/.335	.136	.274	15	9	32%	7%	66	-0.6	.206/.283/.412	.206	.265	29	1	33%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	40→38	47→50	54→55	43	.202/.274/.341	.139	.273	14	17	31%	7%	71	-0.3	.192/.270/.316	.124	.268	13	17	31%	8%	63	-0.9	.166/.251/.266	.100	.225	10	19	29%	8%	40	-1.3
✕Jamari Baylor 2023 · A	22	40	42→45	50→55	41	.172/.280/.276	.105	.337	10	18	46%	10%	58	-1.2	.187/.287/.297	.110	.339	11	16	43%	10%	66	-0.6	.170/.275/.273	.103	.306	12	18	43%	10%	53	-0.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)