Elian Serrata — OGILVIE

Elian Serrata P FCL Marlins

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.80

FIP5.80

K%21.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.9%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	13	0	18	83	22	6	3	0%	1.4	18.0%	9.0%	9.0%	4.1%	9.17	4.95	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	13	0	18	83	22	6	3	0%	1.4	26.5%	7.2%	19.3%	3.6%	9.17	3.84	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	13	0	22	92	32	9	1	0%	1.7	23.7%	12.2%	11.4%	1.2%	2.01	3.30	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	13	0	22	92	32	9	1	0%	1.7	34.8%	9.8%	25.0%	1.1%	2.01	2.03	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	14	0	22	108	31	19	0	0%	1.6	19.5%	22.0%	-2.5%	0.0%	2.05	4.24	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	14	0	22	108	31	19	0	0%	1.6	19.5%	22.0%	-2.5%	0.0%	2.05	4.24	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	14	0	22	108	31	19	0	0%	1.6	28.7%	17.6%	11.1%	0.0%	2.05	2.87	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	23	131	25	33	2	0%	1.0	14.5%	30.9%	-16.4%	3.5%	12.71	7.69	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	23	131	25	33	2	0%	1.0	14.5%	30.9%	-16.4%	3.5%	12.71	7.69	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	23	131	25	33	2	0%	1.0	19.1%	25.2%	-6.1%	1.5%	12.71	6.41	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIA	10	0	11	46	10	9	1	0%	1.1	21.9%	20.0%	1.9%	3.0%	5.80	5.80	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	19	0	20	86	19	16	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	18.9%	3.4%	3.0%	5.64	5.63	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	9	0	9	38	8	7	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	18.9%	3.4%	3.0%	5.64	5.63	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	37	8	7	1	0%	1.1	22.3%	18.9%	3.4%	3.0%	5.64	5.25	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	161	23	0%	1.1	22.3%	18.9%	3.4%	3.0%	5.64	5.25	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		62	0	85	414	77	83	9	0%	1.4	18.6%	20.0%	-1.5%	2.2%	6.38	5.26	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	0	200	978	181	196	21	0%	1.4	18.6%	20.0%	-1.5%	2.2%	6.38	5.26	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elian Serrata (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.80	21.9%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.63	22.3%	3.4%	20	-0.17	—	—	—
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	87
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	85
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	84
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	84
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	84
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	84
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	82
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	81
Michael Blazek R 2013 · 5.52 FIP	24	SU	5.52	16.7%	15.5%	3.4%	.241	3.81	19.8%	10.3%	97	-1.71	2.99	238	81
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	81
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	81
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	81
Yaramil Hiraldo R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SU	4.86	18.5%	15.5%	2.5%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	155	80
Ryan Sublette R 2024 · 5.72 FIP	25	SU	5.72	19.9%	17.5%	3.8%	.214	4.47	18.6%	5.0%	53	-1.25	3.74	203	80
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	80
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	80
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	80
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	79
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	79
Pedro Strop R 2010 · 5.63 FIP	25	SU	5.63	18.3%	18.3%	3.2%	.417	3.15	23.1%	12.1%	146	-2.48	2.25	494	79