Jackson Brockett

Jackson Brockett P South Bend Cubs

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%22.6%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.4M
2033	Arb-2	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	27	2	79	307	85	27	6	7%	2.9	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	2.4%	2.28	3.90	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	27	2	79	307	85	27	6	7%	2.9	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	2.4%	2.28	3.90	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	CHC	5	0	15	52	15	6	0	0%	2.9	28.8%	11.5%	17.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.13	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	CHC	17	1	50	193	54	12	5	6%	3.0	28.0%	6.2%	21.8%	2.6%	1.79	2.95	—
2026	23	AA RAW	CHC	5	1	14	62	16	9	1	20%	2.8	25.8%	14.5%	11.3%	1.6%	6.43	3.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CHC	76	0	79	335	78	31	10	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	3.0%	4.35	4.30	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	76	0	80	339	80	30	10	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.9%	14.7%	2.9%	4.28	4.23	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	76	0	80	339	80	30	10	0%	1.1	23.7%	8.8%	14.9%	2.9%	4.24	4.21	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	75	0	79	334	86	27	10	0%	1.1	25.7%	8.1%	17.6%	3.0%	4.08	3.98	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	73	0	77	324	83	27	10	0%	1.1	25.6%	8.2%	17.3%	3.1%	4.07	4.06	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	70	0	73	309	78	26	10	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.4%	16.9%	3.2%	4.14	4.19	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	66	0	69	290	73	25	10	0%	1.0	25.0%	8.7%	16.2%	3.4%	4.28	4.37	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	CHC	32	0	34	144	33	13	4	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	2.8%	4.29	4.24	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	50	0	53	224	53	20	6	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.9%	14.7%	2.8%	4.22	4.17	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	61	0	64	270	64	24	8	0%	1.0	23.7%	8.8%	14.9%	2.8%	4.18	4.15	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	64	0	67	283	73	23	8	0%	1.0	25.7%	8.1%	17.6%	2.9%	4.02	3.92	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	65	0	68	287	73	24	9	0%	1.0	25.6%	8.2%	17.3%	3.0%	4.01	4.00	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	64	0	67	283	72	24	9	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.4%	16.9%	3.1%	4.07	4.12	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	60	0	63	266	66	23	9	0%	1.1	25.0%	8.7%	16.2%	3.3%	4.21	4.30	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		397	0	417	1760	435	151	53	0%	1.0	24.7%	8.6%	16.2%	3.0%	4.13	3.74	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	209	72	25	0%	1.1	24.7%	8.6%	16.2%	3.0%	4.13	3.74	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		27	2	79	307	66	31	7	7%	2.9	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	2.4%	2.28	3.90	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	5	200	777	166	78	19	7%	2.9	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	2.4%	2.28	3.90	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Brockett (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	22.6%	9.6%	3.0%	—	4.25	23.5%	14.6%	240	-0.18	—	—	—
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	80
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	80
Shane McCain L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.8%	9.7%	3.0%	.324	4.75	16.6%	10.0%	125	+0.41	4.34	201	79
Brandon Walter L 2019 · 3.51 FIP	22	SU	3.51	19.2%	7.2%	2.0%	.270	2.89	27.7%	23.0%	139	-0.62	2.85	391	78
Ben Wereski L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	24	SU	4.78	18.6%	7.6%	4.2%	.287	3.73	29.0%	21.6%	20	-1.05	3.73	132	78
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.29	32.8%	19.4%	102	-1.28	3.04	255	78
Daniel Zamora L 2016 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	20.3%	10.8%	1.5%	.294	2.75	24.7%	16.8%	135	-0.82	2.15	310	78
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	77
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	76
Austin Drury L 2021 · 4.76 FIP	23	SU	4.76	19.1%	8.7%	4.0%	.275	5.22	12.9%	-6.9%	37	+0.46	2.54	187	75
Houston Harding L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	20.2%	10.5%	4.7%	.307	4.87	17.2%	4.9%	158	-0.43	3.41	239	75
Felix Polanco L 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SU	3.68	18.8%	6.0%	2.6%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	105	75
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	75
Yapson Gomez L 2017 · 5.06 FIP	23	SU	5.06	18.5%	9.8%	4.2%	.362	3.35	16.6%	9.3%	132	-1.71	3.23	233	75
Ryne Slack L 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	18.8%	9.0%	2.6%	.293	5.00	15.4%	2.5%	142	+0.93	4.07	212	75
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.61	24.0%	15.0%	149	+0.93	3.68	206	74
Chase Johnson-Mullins L 2017 · 3.39 FIP	23	SU	3.39	19.9%	9.5%	1.4%	.336	3.80	15.6%	-0.3%	20	+0.41	3.24	144	74
Manuel Medina L 2023 · 5.09 FIP	21	SU	5.09	22.3%	11.2%	4.5%	.319	2.79	24.2%	15.4%	78	-2.30	1.26	157	74
Hayden Howard L 2017 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	16.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.307	3.80	17.7%	8.7%	123	-0.36	3.76	200	74
Darien Núñez L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	26.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.68	2.48	122	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	70	24.5%	8.7%	1.19	4.21
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04