Cole Schoenwetter

Cole Schoenwetter P Dayton Dragons

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs A+ peak 0.7 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 160152vR 144

ERA6.70

FIP6.70

K%15.0%

BB%22.6%

K-BB%-7.5%

ROS IP49

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2020

CMD2525

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	52	250	66	40	2	67%	2.9	18.5%	19.5%	-1.0%	1.0%	6.54	4.54	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	52	250	66	40	2	67%	2.9	18.5%	19.5%	-1.0%	1.0%	6.54	4.54	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	12	52	250	66	40	2	67%	2.9	26.4%	16.0%	10.4%	0.8%	6.54	3.37	—
2025	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	26	18	78	358	75	60	9	69%	3.0	15.5%	19.8%	-4.3%	3.2%	5.86	6.03	—
2025	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	26	18	78	358	75	60	9	69%	3.0	15.5%	19.8%	-4.3%	3.2%	5.86	6.03	—
2025	20	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	26	18	78	358	75	60	9	69%	3.0	20.9%	16.8%	4.2%	2.5%	5.86	4.98	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	6	5	23	108	25	18	1	83%	3.8	17.8%	19.2%	-1.3%	1.2%	5.09	4.66	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	6	5	23	108	25	18	1	83%	3.8	17.8%	19.2%	-1.3%	1.2%	5.09	4.66	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	CIN	6	5	23	108	25	18	1	83%	3.8	23.1%	16.7%	6.5%	0.9%	5.09	3.76	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	74	312	54	60	9	100%	4.9	17.2%	19.2%	-2.0%	2.9%	6.22	6.06	-0.9
2028	23	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	77	324	60	55	9	100%	5.5	18.4%	17.0%	1.4%	2.9%	5.83	5.66	-0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	79	332	64	52	9	100%	5.6	19.2%	15.6%	3.6%	2.9%	5.55	5.40	-0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	80	337	66	50	10	100%	5.7	19.7%	14.8%	4.9%	2.8%	5.36	5.24	-0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	80	337	67	50	10	100%	6.1	19.9%	14.7%	5.2%	2.8%	5.28	5.22	-0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	78	331	66	49	10	100%	6.0	19.9%	14.8%	5.1%	2.9%	5.27	5.26	-0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	76	321	63	48	10	100%	5.9	19.8%	14.9%	4.8%	3.0%	5.32	5.35	-0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	73	307	60	47	10	100%	6.1	19.5%	15.2%	4.4%	3.1%	5.41	5.48	-0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	68	288	55	45	10	100%	6.2	19.2%	15.5%	3.7%	3.3%	5.56	5.65	-0.6
2027	22	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	37	156	27	30	5	100%	5.3	17.2%	19.2%	-2.0%	2.9%	6.22	6.06	-0.5
2028	23	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	56	236	44	40	7	100%	5.6	18.4%	17.0%	1.4%	2.9%	5.83	5.66	-0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	65	274	53	43	8	100%	5.4	19.2%	15.6%	3.6%	2.9%	5.55	5.40	-0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	70	296	58	44	8	100%	5.8	19.7%	14.8%	4.9%	2.8%	5.36	5.24	-0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	73	308	61	45	9	100%	6.1	19.9%	14.7%	5.2%	2.8%	5.28	5.22	-0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	73	308	61	46	9	100%	6.1	19.9%	14.8%	5.1%	2.9%	5.27	5.26	-0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	71	300	59	45	9	100%	5.9	19.8%	14.9%	4.8%	3.0%	5.32	5.35	-0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	69	291	57	44	9	100%	5.8	19.5%	15.2%	4.4%	3.1%	5.41	5.48	-0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	65	274	53	42	9	100%	5.9	19.2%	15.5%	3.7%	3.3%	5.56	5.65	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		100	100	579	2445	473	379	73	100%	5.8	19.3%	15.5%	3.8%	3.0%	5.48	5.06	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	163	131	25	100%	5.8	19.3%	15.5%	3.8%	3.0%	5.48	5.06	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		50	35	154	716	121	140	15	70%	3.1	16.9%	19.6%	-2.7%	2.1%	5.97	5.30	-4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	46	200	932	157	183	20	70%	3.1	16.9%	19.6%	-2.7%	2.1%	5.97	5.30	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Schoenwetter (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.70	15.0%	22.6%	3.0%	—	5.70	18.3%	1.0%	230	-1.00	—	—	—
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	86
Chad Bryant R 2021 · 6.29 FIP	21	SP-	6.29	14.8%	20.7%	3.3%	.337	5.59	16.0%	-3.4%	81	-0.70	3.93	136	84
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	84
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	84
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	84
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	81
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	81
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	81
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	80
Randry De Leon R 2023 · 6.45 FIP	18	SP-	6.45	17.7%	20.2%	4.2%	.308	4.83	18.4%	3.3%	123	-1.62	4.37	153	80
Edrick Agosto R 2017 · 6.67 FIP	20	SP-	6.67	11.4%	17.1%	4.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	113	79
Irv Carter R 2023 · 7.11 FIP	20	SP-	7.11	11.4%	18.9%	4.7%	.266	5.51	18.8%	6.1%	150	-1.60	4.81	236	79
Felix Cepeda R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	21	SP	5.96	17.0%	21.6%	2.8%	.276	4.78	17.6%	0.9%	144	-1.18	3.58	204	79
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	78
Mason McGwire R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	19	SP	6.54	13.2%	19.6%	3.8%	.374	4.91	18.1%	3.8%	120	-1.63	4.11	155	78
Jol Concepcion R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	22	SW	6.54	12.2%	20.0%	3.5%	.272	4.60	23.9%	3.9%	50	-1.94	4.60	154	77
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	77
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	77
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	76
Alejandro Chavez R 2019 · 6.79 FIP	20	SP-	6.79	9.8%	20.4%	3.5%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	109	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	73	18.9%	16.2%	1.14	5.61
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77