Cole Schoenwetter
P
Dayton Dragons
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
A+
peak 0.8 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 49 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 165155vR 146
ERA6.53
FIP6.53
K%15.0%
BB%21.3%
K-BB%-6.3%
ROS IP49
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 12 | 52 | 250 | 66 | 40 | 2 | 67% | 2.9 | 18.5% | 19.5% | -1.0% | 0.9% | 6.54 | 4.50 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 12 | 52 | 250 | 66 | 40 | 2 | 67% | 2.9 | 26.4% | 16.0% | 10.4% | 0.8% | 6.54 | 3.37 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 26 | 18 | 78 | 358 | 75 | 60 | 9 | 69% | 3.0 | 15.5% | 19.8% | -4.3% | 3.1% | 5.86 | 5.98 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 26 | 18 | 78 | 358 | 75 | 60 | 9 | 69% | 3.0 | 20.9% | 16.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 5.86 | 4.98 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 6 | 5 | 23 | 108 | 25 | 18 | 1 | 83% | 3.8 | 17.8% | 19.2% | -1.3% | 1.2% | 5.09 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 49 | 206 | 31 | 44 | 6 | 100% | 4.9 | 15.0% | 21.3% | -6.3% | 3.0% | 6.53 | 6.53 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.0% | 21.3% | -6.3% | 3.0% | 6.53 | 6.53 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 72 | 314 | 56 | 62 | 7 | — | — | 17.8% | 19.7% | -1.9% | 2.3% | 6.07 | 5.93 | -0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.0% | 21.3% | -6.3% | 3.0% | 6.53 | 6.15 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 51 | 216 | 37 | 40 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 17.2% | 18.3% | -1.2% | 2.9% | 6.09 | 5.94 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 53 | 224 | 41 | 37 | 6 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.4% | 16.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.73 | 5.57 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 54 | 230 | 44 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.2% | 15.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 9 | 9 | 55 | 233 | 46 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.7% | 14.3% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 5.28 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 9 | 9 | 55 | 233 | 46 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.9% | 14.3% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 5.21 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 9 | 9 | 54 | 229 | 46 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 14.4% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 5.20 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | CIN | 5 | 5 | 25 | 106 | 18 | 19 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.2% | 18.3% | -1.2% | 2.9% | 6.09 | 5.94 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 30 | 27 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.4% | 16.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.73 | 5.57 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 36 | 29 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.2% | 15.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 5.33 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 41 | 30 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.7% | 14.3% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 5.28 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 42 | 30 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.9% | 14.3% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 5.21 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 42 | 30 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.9% | 14.4% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 5.20 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 45 | 45 | 259 | 1093 | 210 | 166 | 31 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.2% | 15.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.43 | 4.96 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 162 | 128 | 24 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.2% | 15.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.43 | 4.96 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 50 | 35 | 154 | 716 | 121 | 140 | 14 | 70% | 3.1 | 16.9% | 19.6% | -2.7% | 2.0% | 5.97 | 5.27 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 46 | 200 | 932 | 157 | 183 | 19 | 70% | 3.1 | 16.9% | 19.6% | -2.7% | 2.0% | 5.97 | 5.27 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cole Schoenwetter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.53 | 15.0% | 21.3% | 3.0% | — | 5.61 | 18.3% | 1.7% | 159 | -0.92 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Larsen R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.8% | 17.9% | 2.7% | .274 | 5.00 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 77 | -0.50 | 4.71 | 137 | 93 |
| Kevin Gowdy R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.62 | 11.1% | 17.0% | 2.4% | .321 | 5.82 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 130 | +0.20 | 3.31 | 333 | 85 |
| Trey Riley R 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 21 | SP- | 6.03 | 10.6% | 19.0% | 2.6% | .344 | 6.14 | 17.4% | 5.2% | 74 | +0.11 | 4.48 | 227 | 85 |
| Chad Bryant R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 21 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.8% | 20.7% | 2.9% | .337 | 5.67 | 16.0% | -3.4% | 81 | -0.37 | 3.93 | 136 | 85 |
| Jackson Fristoe R 2027 · 5.78 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.78 | 17.0% | 24.2% | 1.9% | .258 | 6.42 | 15.6% | -2.0% | 110 | +0.64 | 4.79 | 138 | 84 |
| Orlando Suarez R 2024 · 6.57 FIP | 19 | SP- | 6.57 | 15.5% | 23.2% | 3.4% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 113 | 84 |
| Ryan Degges R 2027 · 5.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.1% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .296 | 6.74 | 21.2% | 5.9% | 21 | +1.24 | 5.50 | 102 | 84 |
| Marwys Cabrera R 2025 · 5.42 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.42 | 13.5% | 18.4% | 2.1% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 131 | 82 |
| Mason McGwire R 2025 · 6.65 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.65 | 11.7% | 21.2% | 3.4% | .298 | 3.50 | 23.5% | 12.6% | 52 | -3.15 | 3.50 | 128 | 81 |
| Luis Mora R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.78 | 16.3% | 15.4% | 3.8% | .303 | 5.55 | 23.9% | 1.2% | 43 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 119 | 81 |
| Zander Mueth R 2026 · 6.97 FIP | 21 | SP | 6.97 | 11.9% | 20.3% | 4.2% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 114 | 81 |
| Chris Viall R 2025 · 5.86 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.86 | 18.9% | 21.9% | 2.9% | .314 | 5.11 | 21.3% | 5.8% | 88 | -0.75 | 4.97 | 108 | 80 |
| Matt Ager R 2027 · 5.81 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.81 | 10.4% | 15.5% | 2.9% | .281 | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 70 | -0.81 | 5.00 | 146 | 80 |
| Edrick Agosto R 2025 · 6.67 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.67 | 11.4% | 17.1% | 4.3% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 113 | 79 |
| Irwin Ramirez R 2024 · 7.04 FIP | 19 | SP- | 7.04 | 12.8% | 22.6% | 3.9% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.88 | 106 | 79 |
| Hunter Parks R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.41 | 18.7% | 16.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.36 | 17.8% | -0.6% | 163 | -0.05 | 3.51 | 278 | 79 |
| Felix Cepeda R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 6.04 | 17.0% | 21.6% | 3.0% | .276 | 4.84 | 17.6% | 0.9% | 144 | -1.20 | 3.61 | 204 | 79 |
| Tyler Renz R 2024 · 6.31 FIP | 19 | SP- | 6.31 | 15.5% | 17.6% | 4.2% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 137 | 79 |
| Gillian Wernet R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.46 | 11.2% | 16.6% | 2.2% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 107 | 79 |
| Adrian Acosta R 2024 · 6.13 FIP | 19 | SP- | 6.13 | 7.9% | 21.7% | 1.7% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 120 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 53 | 18.5% | 16.2% | 1.11 | 5.62 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |