Felix Cotes
2B Charleston RiverDogs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKTB | 29 | .269/.321/.308 | 0 | 2 | 24 | — | .222/.250/.259 |
| 2025 | 19 | A/ROKTB | 239 | .251/.397/.289 | 0 | 14 | 55 | — | .208/.310/.238 |
| 2026 | 20 | A+/A/ROKTB | 164 | .230/.348/.302 | 0 | 14 | 42 | — | .190/.268/.244 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBTB | 274 | .202/.279/.268 | 1 | 6 | 58 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBTB | 51 | .210/.287/.290 | 0 | 1 | 65 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBTB | 113 | .214/.292/.305 | 1 | 2 | 70 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 71 | 58 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 259 | 394 | 466 | 860 | 207 | 333 | 24 | 18 | 383 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 29 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 269 | 321 | 308 | 629 | 38 | 333 | 17 | 7 | 280 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 39 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 395 | 267 | 661 | 33 | 292 | 15 | 21 | 315 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 200 | 157 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 29 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 255 | 397 | 293 | 690 | 38 | 305 | 14 | 16 | 322 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 37 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 118 | 189 | 206 | 395 | 88 | 190 | 35 | 5 | 186 | -29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 81 | 69 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 275 | 383 | 362 | 745 | 87 | 365 | 21 | 15 | 343 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 46 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 250 | 413 | 278 | 691 | 28 | 321 | 17 | 22 | 337 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 71 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 161 | 268 | 274 | 542 | 113 | 210 | 30 | 13 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 29 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 250 | 259 | 509 | 37 | 267 | 24 | 3 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 39 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 342 | 250 | 592 | 31 | 276 | 21 | 15 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 200 | 170 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 42 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 206 | 304 | 235 | 539 | 29 | 252 | 21 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 37 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 86 | 135 | 143 | 278 | 57 | 157 | 46 | 3 | 126 | -29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 81 | 73 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 233 | 309 | 301 | 610 | 68 | 338 | 28 | 10 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 46 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 200 | 304 | 225 | 529 | 25 | 256 | 26 | 13 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 71 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 161 | 268 | 274 | 542 | 113 | 225 | 30 | 13 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 71 | 58 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 259 | 394 | 466 | 860 | 207 | 333 | 24 | 18 | 383 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 29 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 250 | 259 | 509 | 37 | 300 | 24 | 3 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Rays | — | 29 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 269 | 321 | 308 | 629 | 38 | 333 | 17 | 7 | 280 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 239 | 202 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 51 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 208 | 310 | 238 | 548 | 30 | 273 | 21 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 239 | 187 | 47 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 35 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 251 | 397 | 289 | 685 | 37 | 303 | 15 | 17 | 321 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 164 | 147 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 52 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 184 | 268 | 238 | 506 | 54 | 284 | 32 | 10 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 164 | 139 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 38 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 230 | 348 | 302 | 650 | 72 | 317 | 23 | 15 | 306 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 71 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 161 | 268 | 274 | 542 | 113 | 210 | 30 | 13 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 29 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 250 | 250 | 500 | 36 | 267 | 24 | 3 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 239 | 207 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 51 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 203 | 310 | 232 | 542 | 29 | 256 | 21 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 164 | 146 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 52 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 185 | 268 | 240 | 508 | 55 | 274 | 32 | 10 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 29 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 250 | 250 | 500 | 36 | 267 | 24 | 3 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 239 | 207 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 51 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 203 | 310 | 232 | 542 | 29 | 256 | 21 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 164 | 146 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 52 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 185 | 268 | 240 | 508 | 55 | 274 | 32 | 10 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | TB | 0% | 274 | 245 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 75 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 202 | 279 | 268 | 548 | 67 | 282 | 27 | 9 | 254 | 58 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | TB | 34% | 149 | 134 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 285 | 288 | 574 | 81 | 283 | 27 | 9 | 264 | 65 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | TB | 48% | 233 | 208 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 61 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 212 | 290 | 304 | 594 | 92 | 285 | 26 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | TB | 53% | 315 | 281 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 82 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 216 | 294 | 316 | 609 | 100 | 286 | 26 | 9 | 278 | 74 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | TB | 55% | 365 | 326 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 94 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 218 | 296 | 324 | 620 | 106 | 286 | 26 | 9 | 282 | 77 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | TB | 56% | 393 | 351 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 101 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 220 | 297 | 330 | 628 | 110 | 286 | 26 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +9 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 55% | 406 | 363 | 80 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 105 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 219 | 296 | 328 | 624 | 109 | 286 | 26 | 9 | 283 | 78 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +9 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 55% | 407 | 364 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 106 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 217 | 294 | 323 | 617 | 106 | 285 | 26 | 9 | 280 | 76 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | TB | 53% | 399 | 357 | 76 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 35 | 105 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 215 | 291 | 316 | 608 | 102 | 283 | 26 | 9 | 277 | 73 | -13 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | TB | 34% | 51 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 287 | 290 | 577 | 80 | 287 | 27 | 8 | 265 | 65 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | TB | 48% | 113 | 101 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 292 | 305 | 597 | 90 | 288 | 27 | 9 | 273 | 70 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | TB | 53% | 166 | 148 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 218 | 295 | 317 | 612 | 98 | 289 | 26 | 9 | 279 | 74 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | TB | 55% | 200 | 178 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 52 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 221 | 298 | 325 | 623 | 104 | 290 | 26 | 9 | 283 | 77 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | TB | 56% | 219 | 196 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 56 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 222 | 299 | 331 | 630 | 108 | 290 | 26 | 9 | 286 | 79 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 55% | 223 | 199 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 58 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 221 | 298 | 328 | 626 | 107 | 289 | 26 | 9 | 284 | 78 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 55% | 222 | 198 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 58 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 219 | 296 | 323 | 619 | 104 | 288 | 26 | 9 | 281 | 76 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | TB | 53% | 213 | 190 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 56 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 217 | 293 | 317 | 610 | 100 | 287 | 26 | 9 | 278 | 73 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1407 | 1257 | 275 | 51 | 7 | 20 | 125 | 367 | 13 | 29 | 11 | 219 | 296 | 318 | 614 | 99 | 291 | 26 | 9 | 281 | 70 | -41 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +30 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 127 | 24 | 3 | 9 | 58 | 170 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 219 | 296 | 317 | 613 | 98 | 291 | 26 | 9 | 281 | 70 | -19 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +14 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3265 | 2908 | 618 | 113 | 18 | 41 | 295 | 851 | 33 | 91 | 36 | 213 | 292 | 306 | 598 | 94 | 284 | 26 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -84 | +3 | -2 | +10 | +60 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 123 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 59 | 169 | 7 | 18 | 7 | 212 | 293 | 306 | 599 | 93 | 284 | 26 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -20 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 81 PAwOBA .335 → .276 (−60)K% 21.0% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.99% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 10.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.013 | ×1.015 | 25.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.013 | ×1.015 | 6.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.013 | ×1.015 | 1.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .335 → .276; ISO .087 → .073; BABIP .365 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Rays · 46 PAwOBA .330 → .236 (−94)K% 17.4% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.39% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 13.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 23.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .330 → .236; ISO .028 → .020; BABIP .321 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 37 PAwOBA .182 → .126 (−56)K% 35.1% → 46.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 46.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 3.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 2.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 4.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 11.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .182 → .126; ISO .088 → .060; BABIP .190 → .157. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Rays · 200 PAwOBA .318 → .245 (−73)K% 14.5% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.50% | ÷0.985 | ×1.440 | — | — | 21.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.50% | ÷0.991 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 9.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.34% | ÷1.018 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 23.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.026 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 2.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.809 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .318 → .245; ISO .038 → .028; BABIP .305 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 39 PAwOBA .309 → .268 (−41)K% 15.4% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.006 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.51% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 14.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 23.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.850 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 4.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.121 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.159 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 103, 2B 70, 3B 124, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .309 → .268; ISO .033 → .035; BABIP .292 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Rays · 29 PAwOBA .273 → .204 (−68)K% 17.2% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.24% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.90% | ÷1.024 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 4.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.024 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 23.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.941 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 3.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .273 → .204; ISO .038 → .029; BABIP .333 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Tampa Bay · 71 PAwOBA .374 → .233 (−141)K% 23.9% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.94% | ÷0.999 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.31% | ÷1.025 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 12.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷0.963 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.008 | 13.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.76% | ÷1.106 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.008 | 5.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.061 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.008 | 1.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.121 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 2.06% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 93, 2B 121, 3B 112, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .374 → .233; ISO .207 → .102; BABIP .333 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).