Estiven Giron — OGILVIE

Estiven GironC DSL Padres Gold

Age 21 L/R 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 71 proj PA

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .279 / .283

PA71

HR1

K%30

BB%9

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.7	$1M	+$1.0M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2037	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$5M		$14M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Padres	—	71	63	12	3	1	1	4	19	2	0	0	190	261	317	578	127	244	27	6	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Padres	—	71	60	15	4	1	1	7	13	2	0	0	250	348	400	748	150	292	18	10	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	80	64	8	2	0	0	13	27	2	0	0	125	291	156	447	31	211	34	16	220	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	80	57	9	2	0	0	20	19	2	0	0	158	392	193	585	35	231	24	25	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	143	123	19	3	0	2	14	48	4	0	0	154	262	228	490	73	227	34	10	220	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	143	114	27	5	0	2	23	30	4	0	0	237	383	333	716	96	298	21	16	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	SD	—	71	64	12	2	0	1	6	21	1	1	0	188	268	266	533	78	287	30	8	261	58	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	SD	34%	118	106	23	4	1	2	10	34	1	1	0	217	291	330	621	113	288	29	8	272	66	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2028	23	MLB	SD	48%	253	226	47	8	1	4	22	71	3	2	1	208	287	305	592	97	290	28	9	279	72	-8	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.4
2029	24	MLB	SD	53%	352	314	69	12	2	7	31	98	4	3	1	220	298	338	636	118	291	28	9	284	76	-10	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.7
2030	25	MLB	SD	55%	412	368	80	14	2	8	36	114	5	4	1	217	296	332	627	114	291	28	9	288	78	-10	+0	+0	+7	+12	0.9
2031	26	MLB	SD	56%	450	402	87	15	2	9	39	124	6	4	2	216	295	331	626	114	291	28	9	289	79	-11	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.0
2032	27	MLB	SD	55%	468	418	92	16	3	10	41	130	6	4	2	220	299	344	643	124	291	28	9	289	79	-11	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.1
2033	28	MLB	SD	55%	476	424	92	16	2	10	43	133	6	4	2	217	298	335	633	118	290	28	9	288	79	-12	+0	-1	+8	+13	1.0
2034	29	MLB	SD	53%	474	422	91	16	2	9	43	133	6	4	1	216	297	327	624	111	290	28	9	286	77	-12	+0	-1	+8	+13	0.9
2035	30	MLB	SD	53%	468	417	89	15	2	9	42	133	6	4	1	213	295	324	618	110	288	28	9	283	75	-13	+0	-2	+8	+13	0.7
2036	31	MLB	SD	56%	443	395	83	14	2	8	40	127	5	3	1	210	291	316	607	106	286	29	9	279	72	-14	+0	-3	+8	+13	0.4
2037	32	MLB	SD	59%	415	370	77	13	2	7	37	120	5	2	1	208	289	311	600	103	282	29	9	274	68	-15	+0	-4	+7	+12	0.0
2038	33	MLB	SD	61%	375	335	68	11	2	6	33	111	4	2	1	203	282	301	584	99	278	30	9	267	63	-16	+0	-4	+7	+11	-0.3
2027	22	MLB	SD	34%	41	36	7	1	0	1	4	12	1	0	0	194	293	306	598	111	285	29	10	260	57	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	23	MLB	SD	48%	123	109	24	4	1	2	11	35	2	1	0	220	303	330	634	110	286	28	9	267	62	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	24	MLB	SD	53%	186	166	35	6	1	3	16	52	2	2	1	211	288	313	601	102	288	28	9	272	66	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2030	25	MLB	SD	55%	225	200	42	7	1	4	20	62	3	2	1	210	291	315	606	105	288	28	9	275	68	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2031	26	MLB	SD	56%	250	223	48	8	1	5	22	69	3	2	1	215	294	327	622	112	288	28	9	276	69	-9	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2032	27	MLB	SD	55%	257	229	49	8	1	5	23	71	3	2	1	214	294	323	617	109	287	28	9	276	70	-9	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.3
2033	28	MLB	SD	55%	260	232	50	9	1	5	23	72	3	2	1	216	295	328	622	112	287	28	9	275	69	-9	+0	-0	+5	+7	0.3
2034	29	MLB	SD	53%	253	225	48	8	1	5	23	71	3	2	1	213	295	324	619	111	286	28	9	273	67	-9	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.2
2035	30	MLB	SD	53%	246	219	47	8	1	5	22	70	3	2	1	215	295	329	624	114	285	28	9	271	65	-10	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.1
2036	31	MLB	SD	56%	250	223	46	8	1	4	22	72	3	2	1	206	286	305	591	99	282	29	9	267	62	-11	+0	-2	+4	+7	-0.1
2037	32	MLB	SD	59%	246	219	44	7	1	4	22	71	3	1	0	201	283	297	580	96	279	29	9	262	59	-12	+0	-2	+4	+7	-0.2
2038	33	MLB	SD	61%	229	204	42	7	1	4	20	68	3	1	0	206	286	309	595	103	275	30	9	256	54	-12	+0	-3	+4	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2566	2285	482	81	11	47	228	725	32	19	8	211	292	318	609	107	285	28	9	270	65	-102	+1	-8	+46	+73	0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	123	21	3	12	58	184	8	5	2	212	293	321	615	109	288	28	9	270	65	-26	+0	-2	+12	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	5069	4511	949	164	24	93	454	1443	66	38	14	210	292	319	611	109	285	28	9	279	72	-163	+2	-15	+91	+144	6.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	122	21	3	12	58	185	8	5	2	211	291	320	611	109	286	28	9	279	72	-21	+0	-2	+12	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Padres	—	71	60	15	4	1	1	7	13	2	250	348	400	748	150	292	18	10	329	110	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2023	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	80	57	9	2	0	0	20	19	2	158	392	193	585	35	231	24	25	304	91	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	143	114	27	5	0	2	23	30	4	237	383	333	716	96	298	21	16	333	113	+2	+0	—	—	+4	0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#5Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#5Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,636	50	21	215	292	327	+47	+28	4.0	3.8
	/162	664	13	5	215	292	327	+11.9	+7.1	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Estiven Giron (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	201/279/283	82	287	1	1	30%	9%	58	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	39→45	47→45	45	181/267/268	87	282	7	6	36%	9%	49	-1.8	190/265/267	77	299	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
✕Ashton McGee 2021 · A	22	41	39→45	50→40	41	194/258/283	89	288	5	5	33%	7%	48	-1.9	196/284/305	109	362	11	4	44%	10%	66	-0.6	177/274/284	107	334	12	2	45%	11%	53	-0.8
✕Addison Barger 2021 · A	21	41→45	39→55	49→45	44	198/267/288	90	270	6	5	28%	7%	53	-1.5	217/280/375	158	316	19	7	36%	7%	82	+0.5	220/290/392	172	269	20	6	26%	8%	86	+0.6
✕Anthony Seigler 2021 · A	22	42→39	37→50	49→55	47	199/276/274	74	283	5	6	29%	9%	53	-1.5	192/289/301	109	273	9	9	30%	12%	67	-0.5	226/317/363	137	277	12	28	21%	11%	91	+0.6
✕Pratt Maynard 2012 · A	22	43	39→45	48→45	42	206/272/292	86	305	7	5	33%	7%	56	-1.3	216/277/305	89	275	7	5	22%	8%	62	-0.9	218/282/314	95	271	7	4	21%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	50	-1.7	214/303/312	98	272	7	8	22%	10%	76	+0.0	196/299/311	116	258	12	6	27%	12%	71	-0.1
✕Daniel Schneemann 2019 · A	22	38→48	40→50	50	43	185/251/280	94	271	8	6	33%	8%	44	-2.1	209/267/297	88	289	7	9	28%	7%	55	-1.4	226/305/375	149	299	15	13	28%	10%	88	+0.7
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→49	41→45	47→55	46	196/269/296	99	264	8	11	28%	8%	56	-1.3	205/280/294	89	283	5	16	27%	8%	59	-1.1	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Charles Mack 2021 · A	21	44	37→45	49→40	42	207/267/284	77	296	4	7	30%	7%	52	-1.6	181/261/288	107	310	11	4	41%	10%	52	-1.6	150/239/261	111	249	12	1	42%	10%	32	-1.2
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	41	-2.3	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	50	-1.7	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Ben Rortvedt 2019 · A	21	44	39→45	49→40	42	211/261/292	82	274	6	3	25%	6%	51	-1.7	213/271/319	106	287	10	3	28%	6%	63	-0.9	200/285/311	111	278	12	2	30%	9%	65	-0.3
✕Imanol Vargas 2019 · A	21	42→44	40→50	45	51	200/293/295	95	288	7	9	30%	11%	67	-0.5	207/285/347	140	314	15	7	36%	9%	76	+0.1	205/290/360	154	326	18	2	39%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	35→45	42→55	45→50	44	176/254/278	102	265	9	7	35%	9%	46	-2.0	196/287/331	135	277	14	9	32%	11%	73	-0.1	224/298/396	172	291	21	8	29%	9%	92	+0.9
✕Randy Florentino 2021 · A	21	43	40→50	42→45	47	204/282/302	97	297	7	6	32%	10%	63	-0.8	179/241/260	81	267	8	5	34%	7%	35	-2.8	183/233/258	75	242	8	4	27%	6%	29	-0.9
✕Leandro Pineda 2023 · A	21	36→39	39→45	47→45	42	172/250/266	95	272	5	6	36%	8%	41	-2.3	201/268/322	121	279	12	6	31%	7%	63	-0.9	202/271/322	120	261	12	6	26%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Carlos Luis 2021 · A	21	44→51	36→45	48→40	40	206/259/276	69	305	4	6	32%	6%	46	-2.0	221/271/313	92	310	7	3	29%	6%	60	-1.0	226/275/321	96	305	9	1	28%	6%	62	-0.5
✕Alejandro Flores 2016 · A	20	37	39→50	45→40	43	182/248/265	83	263	7	5	32%	8%	39	-2.5	203/261/310	107	295	9	6	32%	7%	56	-1.3	202/257/342	140	271	13	4	30%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Marcus Littlewood 2014 · A	22	40	40→45	48→45	46	194/268/290	96	282	7	4	32%	9%	54	-1.4	208/272/320	112	275	10	5	27%	8%	63	-0.8	209/274/322	113	270	10	4	25%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2023 · A	21	44	40→50	49→50	43	210/264/306	96	280	6	8	26%	6%	56	-1.3	212/262/343	131	271	15	10	27%	6%	65	-0.7	227/286/389	162	266	21	9	23%	7%	84	+0.3