Jansel Luis

3B Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 22 S/R 6'0" / 170 lbs AA HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #121MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP48ETA2029FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	A+ARI	447	.304/.350/.422	5	22	90	—	.276/.311/.373
2025	20	INTLSalt River Ra…	104	.213/.314/.247	0	8	65	—
2026	21	AAARI	486	.270/.317/.444	16	26	84	—	.251/.288/.398
2027PROJ2% MLB	22	MLBARI	6	.234/.273/.360	0	0	71	-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBARI	191	.239/.280/.375	4	6	77	0.0
2029PROJ47% MLB	24	MLBARI	269	.242/.286/.385	6	9	82	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed94

Z-Con%81

ISO65

Whiff%53

wOBA50

K%46

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 64%

CompsRyan Bliss (age 22) · Kaleb Cowart (age 22) · Christopher Bostick (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .273 / .360

PA6

HR0

K%33

BB%4

BABIP310

ISO120

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT49

scouting grade only

POWER48

scouting grade only

EYE34

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL D-backs Black	—	193	174	60	7	1	1	12	23	5	9	3	345	403	414	817	69	388	12	6	367	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	155	144	37	5	3	4	8	35	3	7	2	257	310	417	726	160	314	23	5	323	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	—	108	94	27	7	1	3	9	16	4	9	2	287	374	479	853	191	316	15	8	375	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	471	125	29	10	7	40	109	11	20	10	265	337	414	751	149	332	21	8	335	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	447	405	123	19	7	5	27	73	2	22	7	304	350	422	772	119	349	16	6	335	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	16	16	8	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	500	500	750	1.250	250	533	6	0	544	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	104	89	19	3	0	0	12	20	1	8	3	213	314	247	561	34	271	19	12	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	486	448	121	20	5	16	24	122	7	26	4	270	317	444	762	174	335	25	5	332	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Black	—	193	177	40	4	1	1	9	29	5	9	3	226	283	277	560	51	254	15	5	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	155	146	31	4	3	3	6	47	3	7	2	212	258	342	601	130	289	30	4	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	—	108	97	20	5	1	2	6	22	4	9	2	206	280	340	621	134	238	20	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	482	110	25	9	5	29	147	11	20	10	228	287	349	636	120	317	28	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	447	413	114	18	5	4	19	98	2	22	7	276	311	373	684	97	332	22	4	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	16	16	6	1	1	0	0	2	0	2	0	375	375	562	938	188	416	12	0	397	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	486	455	114	18	5	13	17	149	7	26	4	251	288	398	686	147	331	31	3	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Black	—	193	177	40	4	1	1	9	29	5	9	3	226	283	277	560	51	262	15	5	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs Black	—	193	174	60	7	1	1	12	23	5	9	3	345	403	414	817	69	388	12	6	367	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	263	243	51	9	4	5	12	69	7	16	4	210	267	342	609	132	271	26	5	264	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	263	238	64	12	4	7	17	51	7	16	4	269	336	441	777	172	315	19	6	344	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	482	110	25	9	5	29	147	11	20	10	228	287	349	636	120	318	28	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	471	125	29	10	7	40	109	11	20	10	265	337	414	751	149	332	21	8	335	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	567	525	148	24	7	5	24	122	3	32	10	282	317	383	700	101	349	22	4	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	567	510	150	24	8	5	39	94	3	32	10	294	348	402	750	108	343	17	7	328	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	486	455	114	18	5	13	17	149	7	26	4	251	288	398	686	147	341	31	3	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	486	448	121	20	5	16	24	122	7	26	4	270	317	444	762	174	335	25	5	332	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Black	—	193	177	40	4	1	1	9	29	5	9	3	226	283	277	560	51	254	15	5	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	263	242	51	9	4	5	12	69	7	16	4	211	267	343	610	132	268	26	5	264	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	478	110	25	9	5	29	147	11	20	10	230	287	351	639	121	317	28	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	567	535	148	24	7	5	24	122	3	32	10	277	317	376	693	99	335	22	4	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	486	459	114	18	5	13	17	149	7	26	4	248	288	394	682	146	331	31	3	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	523	478	110	25	9	5	29	147	11	20	10	230	287	351	639	121	317	28	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	567	535	148	24	7	5	24	122	3	32	10	277	317	376	693	99	335	22	4	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	486	459	114	18	5	13	17	149	7	26	4	248	288	394	682	146	331	31	3	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	ARI	2%	596	561	128	22	5	12	24	167	6	20	4	227	267	347	614	120	299	28	4	273	71	-21	+2	-1	+2	+13	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	ARI	2%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	234	273	360	634	126	310	33	0	280	71	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	ARI	35%	542	507	118	20	5	12	24	148	6	18	4	232	274	363	637	131	299	27	4	282	77	-15	+2	-0	+2	+12	0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	ARI	47%	579	541	126	21	5	14	27	155	6	19	4	235	279	373	653	138	300	27	5	289	82	-13	+2	+0	+2	+13	0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	ARI	52%	601	560	132	22	5	16	30	159	6	19	4	237	283	379	661	142	300	26	5	293	84	-11	+2	+1	+2	+13	0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	ARI	54%	612	569	135	23	5	16	32	161	6	19	4	237	285	380	665	143	299	26	5	294	85	-11	+2	+1	+2	+13	0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	ARI	54%	615	571	135	23	5	16	33	161	6	19	4	236	286	379	665	143	298	26	5	294	85	-11	+2	+1	+2	+13	0.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	ARI	54%	611	567	134	23	5	16	33	162	6	16	4	235	284	375	658	140	297	27	5	292	83	-12	+2	+0	+2	+13	0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	602	559	130	22	5	15	32	161	6	13	3	232	281	368	649	136	296	27	5	288	81	-14	+1	-0	+2	+13	0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	ARI	52%	592	551	125	21	4	14	31	160	5	10	3	229	277	361	638	132	294	27	5	283	78	-16	+1	-1	+2	+13	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	ARI	35%	191	179	43	8	2	4	8	52	2	6	1	239	280	375	656	137	310	27	4	290	77	-5	+1	-0	+1	+4	0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	ARI	47%	269	251	60	11	3	6	13	72	3	9	2	242	286	385	671	143	311	27	5	296	82	-6	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	ARI	52%	311	290	70	13	3	8	15	82	3	10	2	243	289	390	679	147	311	26	5	300	84	-6	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	ARI	54%	332	309	74	14	3	8	17	87	3	10	2	243	291	392	682	148	310	26	5	301	85	-6	+1	+1	+1	+7	0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	ARI	54%	334	310	75	14	3	8	18	88	3	10	2	243	292	390	682	147	309	26	5	301	85	-6	+1	+1	+1	+7	0.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	ARI	54%	332	308	74	14	3	8	18	88	3	9	2	241	289	385	675	145	308	27	5	298	83	-7	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	320	297	71	13	3	8	17	86	3	7	2	238	286	379	666	141	306	27	5	295	81	-7	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	ARI	52%	310	288	68	13	3	7	16	84	3	5	1	235	283	371	654	136	304	27	5	290	78	-8	+1	-1	+1	+7	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2399	2232	535	100	23	57	122	639	23	66	14	240	286	382	668	142	308	27	5	297	80	-51	+8	+1	+9	+52	1.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	605	144	27	6	15	33	173	6	18	4	238	284	377	661	139	306	27	5	297	80	-14	+2	+0	+2	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	7106	6608	1567	267	68	154	346	1872	83	246	63	237	284	368	652	131	305	26	5	287	80	-113	+16	+2	+18	+110	3.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	604	143	24	6	14	32	171	8	23	6	237	284	366	650	129	305	26	5	287	80	-14	+2	+0	+2	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Doug Baird'15-'20 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,353 PA	3.5	2,353	6	118	235*	301*	401*	+8	+16	7.4	7.4
/162	664	2	33	+2.1	+4.7	2.1	pk7: 7
#3Bill Cissell'28-'38 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,998 PA	6.0	3,998	29	113	240*	284*	363*	+27	+22	2.2	3.8
/162	664	5	19	+4.5	+3.7	0.4	pk7: 5
#4Hernán Pérezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,811 PA	2.7	1,811	45	69	252	281	387	-0	+12	3.7	3.7
/162	664	16	25	-0.0	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	3.6	2,406	61	67	235	279	374	+9	+4	3.2	3.1
/162	664	17	18	+2.4	+1.0	0.9	pk7: 3
#5Sam Bohne'16-'26 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,593 PA	3.9	2,593	16	75	230*	300*	367*	+13	+3	2.8	2.8
/162	664	4	19	+3.4	+0.8	0.7	pk7: 3
#6Carlos Sanchez'14-'22 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,503 PA	3.8	2,503	32	30	248*	305*	353*	+8	+0	2.1	2.6
/162	664	8	8	+2.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jansel Luis (OGILVIE)	22	32→49	40→48	53→52	34	225/265/344	119	299	6	10	28%	4%	71	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ryan Bliss 2022 · A	22	43→51	47→50	51→60	39	215/265/348	133	294	15	16	31%	6%	72	-0.7	215/279/342	127	288	12	32	28%	7%	76	-0.4	232/299/362	129	300	10	41	25%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Kaleb Cowart 2014 · AA	22	46→53	42→45	48→50	41	222/272/324	102	298	9	10	28%	6%	68	-1.0	220/271/323	103	298	8	15	27%	6%	68	-1.0	232/288/356	124	312	10	17	28%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Christopher Bostick 2016 · AA	23	45→55	44→45	55	39	223/269/343	121	289	11	18	27%	5%	72	-0.7	237/286/343	106	313	7	11	25%	5%	78	-0.3	245/298/359	114	318	9	7	25%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Drew Romo 2024 · AAA	22	46→51	44→50	49→50	43	226/272/344	118	281	11	12	24%	6%	73	-0.6	225/274/353	128	286	14	6	25%	5%	76	-0.4	216/270/344	129	272	15	4	26%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Jason Pridie 2006 · AA	22	43→53	46→50	55	39	215/265/350	135	303	13	16	33%	6%	72	-0.7	235/269/348	113	299	9	17	24%	4%	72	-0.7	249/278/382	133	310	11	22	23%	3%	81	-0.1
✕Carlos Figueroa 2014 · AAA	22	45→55	42→30	51→55	41	221/264/327	106	285	9	15	26%	5%	65	-1.2	280/323/342	62	345	4	24	19%	6%	90	+0.6	291/332/338	47	364	2	24	19%	6%	89	+0.4
✕Adalberto Mondesi 2016 · AA	21	42→52	42→60	56→65	35	208/239/314	106	291	9	18	32%	4%	53	-2.1	229/263/381	152	312	16	33	31%	4%	78	-0.3	254/286/438	184	337	19	49	30%	4%	100	+0.9
●Alonzo Harris 2011 · A	22	40→50	42→50	51→60	36	200/236/302	102	271	10	13	30%	4%	49	-2.4	225/268/315	90	291	7	19	24%	5%	64	-1.3	234/290/378	144	282	15	35	22%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2024 · AA	22	43→46	43→55	51→50	42	213/264/326	114	277	10	11	27%	6%	66	-1.1	230/284/377	147	283	17	11	24%	7%	85	+0.2	238/297/408	169	279	21	11	23%	7%	95	+0.5
✕Cayden Wallace 2024 · AA	22	45→49	44→50	53→50	45	220/280/345	125	285	10	13	26%	7%	76	-0.4	226/279/351	125	289	12	13	25%	6%	77	-0.3	232/281/372	140	285	16	15	24%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Kyle Isbel 2019 · A	22	48→52	43→50	53→55	41	231/279/347	116	311	10	19	28%	6%	76	-0.4	220/271/346	126	290	13	17	28%	6%	73	-0.6	232/292/371	139	290	13	19	24%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Peyton Wilson 2022 · A	22	43→52	41→45	53→55	41	204/279/310	106	302	7	14	32%	7%	68	-1.0	222/288/343	121	297	11	18	27%	7%	79	-0.2	217/286/336	120	283	12	19	26%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Brayan Rocchio 2022 · AA	21	47→56	46→45	50	40	230/288/366	136	303	13	16	28%	5%	84	+0.2	237/302/360	123	291	11	15	21%	7%	88	+0.4	235/306/352	117	282	10	15	20%	8%	86	+0.3
✕Ricardo Serrano 2007 · AAA	21	44→54	42→50	48→45	37	212/261/316	104	318	10	13	36%	6%	62	-1.4	242/284/339	97	307	7	6	23%	5%	76	-0.4	254/298/392	138	306	11	3	20%	5%	90	+0.4
✕Luis Alexander Basabe 2019 · AA	22	41→45	44→45	50	40	202/264/321	119	303	11	14	36%	7%	65	-1.2	207/276/307	100	327	9	15	36%	8%	66	-1.1	198/269/278	79	322	6	15	37%	8%	54	-0.7
✕Liover Peguero 2023 · AA	22	48→49	43→45	56→55	38	232/271/342	110	314	10	23	29%	5%	72	-0.7	225/272/350	125	297	13	18	28%	6%	74	-0.5	219/270/346	127	285	14	18	28%	6%	71	-0.6
✕Noel Cuevas 2015 · AA	23	45→52	42→45	54→55	41	222/264/330	109	282	9	16	24%	5%	66	-1.1	238/272/333	95	307	7	18	24%	3%	70	-0.9	254/287/363	108	316	8	12	22%	3%	80	-0.1
✕Leo German 2015 · AAA	22	47→57	43→45	50→55	40	229/285/334	105	294	11	16	25%	5%	76	-0.4	248/296/342	94	323	7	26	24%	5%	81	-0.1	288/324/375	87	373	6	23	23%	4%	94	+0.5
✕Brayan Buelvas 2024 · AA	22	37→45	46→50	55	41	190/252/319	129	260	13	18	32%	7%	61	-1.5	204/265/326	122	293	11	16	32%	7%	66	-1.1	205/266/334	130	290	12	14	32%	7%	66	-0.8
✕BJ Murray 2022 · A	22	44→51	42→45	52→50	39	214/264/321	107	310	9	8	33%	6%	64	-1.3	224/308/346	122	307	11	10	28%	10%	87	+0.4	211/299/345	134	268	15	14	26%	10%	81	-0.0

Jansel Luis

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps