Waner Luciano — OGILVIE

Waner LucianoSS Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 210 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION319 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP254

ISO96

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$23M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL HOU Orange	—	214	170	39	11	2	6	34	42	9	9	2	229	385	424	809	194	268	20	16	366	134	+9	+1	—	—	+5	1.5
2023	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	194	166	41	8	0	10	22	36	4	5	0	247	349	476	825	229	254	19	11	362	131	+7	+1	—	—	+4	1.3
2024	19	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	252	47	12	0	3	36	62	6	1	3	187	303	270	573	83	230	21	12	269	68	-11	-1	—	—	+6	-0.6
2025	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	273	49	9	0	5	26	63	8	13	3	179	270	267	538	88	213	20	8	251	56	-16	+1	—	—	+7	-0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	—	214	185	29	7	1	5	19	62	9	9	2	157	268	286	554	130	198	29	9	248	54	-12	+1	—	—	+5	-0.6
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	194	174	30	6	0	6	14	49	4	5	0	172	250	310	560	138	192	25	7	239	48	-12	+1	—	—	+4	-0.7
2024	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	267	38	8	0	2	21	86	6	1	3	142	221	195	416	52	192	29	7	197	19	-29	-1	—	—	+6	-2.4
2025	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	284	40	6	0	4	15	90	8	13	3	141	205	204	409	63	187	29	5	190	15	-31	+1	—	—	+7	-2.4
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	—	214	185	29	7	1	5	19	62	9	9	2	157	268	286	554	130	202	29	9	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Orange	—	214	170	39	11	2	6	34	42	9	9	2	229	385	424	809	194	268	20	16	366	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	194	174	30	6	0	6	14	49	4	5	0	172	250	310	560	138	198	25	7	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	194	166	41	8	0	10	22	36	4	5	0	247	349	476	825	229	254	19	11	362	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	267	38	8	0	2	21	86	6	1	3	142	221	195	416	52	197	29	7	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	252	47	12	0	3	36	62	6	1	3	187	303	270	573	83	230	21	12	269	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	284	40	6	0	4	15	90	8	13	3	141	205	204	409	63	188	29	5	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	273	49	9	0	5	26	63	8	13	3	179	270	267	538	88	213	20	8	251	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	—	214	184	29	7	1	5	19	62	9	9	2	158	268	288	556	130	198	29	9	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	194	174	30	6	0	6	14	49	4	5	0	172	250	310	560	138	192	25	7	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	269	38	8	0	2	21	86	6	1	3	141	221	193	414	52	192	29	7	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	283	40	6	0	4	15	90	8	13	3	141	205	205	410	64	187	29	5	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	194	174	30	6	0	6	14	49	4	5	0	172	250	310	560	138	192	25	7	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	269	38	8	0	2	21	86	6	1	3	141	221	193	414	52	192	29	7	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	283	40	6	0	4	15	90	8	13	3	141	205	205	410	64	187	29	5	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A MLE	HOU	—	319	276	61	15	0	9	33	75	4	23	6	221	313	373	686	152	264	24	10	302	90	-4	+2	+0	+3	+7	0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK RAW	HOU	—	16	12	4	0	0	1	4	2	0	2	0	333	500	583	1.083	250	333	12	25	474	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A RAW	HOU	—	303	245	64	18	0	9	48	51	4	21	6	261	391	445	835	184	289	17	16	369	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	A MLE	HOU	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		252	22	11	274	72	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	21	A MLE	HOU	—	328	284	62	15	0	9	34	77	4	23	6	218	311	366	677	148	261	23	10	301	90	-4	+2	+0	+4	+7	0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	377	337	70	15	0	9	32	90	5	10	3	208	286	332	618	125	256	24	8	281	77	-10	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	48%	446	399	85	18	1	11	38	104	6	11	3	213	291	346	637	133	260	23	9	290	82	-9	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	491	438	96	20	1	13	43	112	7	12	3	219	299	358	658	139	262	23	9	295	86	-8	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	515	458	101	21	1	14	45	117	7	12	3	221	300	362	662	142	263	23	9	298	88	-7	+1	+0	+6	+11	1.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	HOU	56%	527	468	104	22	1	15	47	120	7	12	3	222	303	370	672	147	263	23	9	299	89	-7	+1	+0	+6	+11	1.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	530	470	104	22	1	15	48	121	7	12	3	221	303	368	671	147	263	23	9	300	89	-7	+1	+0	+6	+11	1.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	528	468	103	22	1	14	48	121	7	11	3	220	302	361	663	141	262	23	9	299	88	-7	+1	-1	+6	+11	1.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	519	460	101	21	1	14	47	120	7	10	3	220	302	361	662	141	262	23	9	297	87	-8	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.8
2035	30	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	509	451	98	21	1	13	46	119	7	9	2	217	300	355	654	137	261	23	9	295	85	-9	+1	-2	+5	+11	0.7
2036	31	MLB MLE	HOU	60%	496	441	95	20	1	13	45	117	7	8	2	215	298	354	652	138	259	24	9	291	83	-10	+1	-3	+5	+11	0.4
2037	32	MLB MLE	HOU	61%	477	425	88	18	0	12	43	115	6	7	2	207	289	334	623	127	256	24	9	285	79	-12	+1	-4	+5	+10	0.1
2038	33	MLB MLE	HOU	62%	448	399	80	16	0	10	40	110	6	6	2	201	283	316	599	115	252	25	9	279	75	-13	+0	-4	+5	+10	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	130	116	24	5	0	3	11	31	2	3	1	207	287	328	614	121	258	24	8	272	77	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	48%	216	192	41	9	0	5	19	50	3	5	2	214	294	339	633	125	262	23	9	280	82	-5	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	259	231	51	11	0	7	22	59	4	6	2	221	300	359	659	139	264	23	8	285	86	-4	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	282	251	56	12	1	7	25	64	4	7	2	223	304	363	666	139	265	23	9	288	88	-4	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	HOU	56%	293	261	58	12	1	8	26	67	4	7	2	222	302	368	670	146	265	23	9	289	89	-4	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	292	260	57	12	0	8	26	66	4	6	2	219	300	358	658	138	265	23	9	290	89	-4	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	289	257	56	12	0	8	26	66	4	6	2	218	300	358	658	140	264	23	9	289	88	-4	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	277	246	54	12	0	7	25	64	4	5	1	220	302	354	655	134	264	23	9	287	87	-4	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	290	258	55	12	0	7	26	68	4	5	1	213	295	341	636	128	263	23	9	285	85	-5	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	HOU	60%	295	262	55	12	0	7	27	70	4	5	1	210	294	336	629	126	261	24	9	281	83	-6	+1	-2	+3	+6	0.3
2037	32	MLB CTX	HOU	61%	292	259	55	12	0	7	27	70	4	4	1	212	297	340	636	127	258	24	9	276	79	-7	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.1
2038	33	MLB CTX	HOU	62%	280	249	51	11	0	6	25	69	4	3	1	205	288	321	609	116	254	25	9	269	75	-8	+0	-3	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3195	2842	613	132	2	80	285	744	45	62	18	216	297	348	645	132	263	23	9	283	76	-59	+5	-9	+34	+69	4.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	124	27	0	16	58	151	9	13	4	215	296	344	640	130	262	23	9	283	76	-12	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	6887	6132	1263	263	10	170	592	1655	106	148	40	206	287	335	622	129	251	24	9	281	76	-109	+11	-15	+63	+127	7.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	119	25	1	16	56	156	10	14	4	206	287	335	622	130	251	24	9	281	76	-12	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Ingelast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,617 PA	8.5	5,617	152	45	233	301	384	+26	+73	19.8	20.5
/162	664	18	5	+3.1	+8.6	2.3	pk7: 21
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.3	3,514	88	70	215	292	348	+38	+21	6.2	5.6
/162	664	17	13	+7.1	+4.0	1.2	pk7: 5
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Waner Luciano (OGILVIE)	21	25	30	50	30	201/280/318	117	252	7	14	24%	8%	72	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	53	-2.1	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	71	-0.8	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	70	-0.3
✕Luis Hidalgo 2017 · A	21	37	44→45	47→45	43	190/252/303	113	229	13	12	24%	6%	57	-1.8	224/274/348	124	267	13	8	21%	5%	75	-0.5	259/302/380	121	288	12	8	14%	4%	90	+0.3
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	39	38→30	48→45	42	188/251/270	82	260	6	7	29%	6%	49	-2.4	199/275/282	83	287	6	6	30%	8%	61	-1.5	182/254/249	67	248	6	11	27%	8%	43	-0.7
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	172/216/255	83	252	7	7	34%	5%	31	-3.7	189/226/284	95	266	6	9	30%	4%	41	-3.0	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Luis De La Cruz 2010 · A	21	41	38→30	47→30	40	197/233/275	77	246	5	6	22%	4%	41	-3.0	220/253/311	91	276	5	6	21%	4%	57	-1.8	245/267/324	79	295	3	3	18%	3%	62	-0.4
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→45	51→45	39	201/262/293	92	296	7	7	33%	6%	57	-1.8	195/269/306	111	299	13	8	37%	7%	65	-1.2	180/257/292	111	259	15	7	35%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	42	-2.9	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	65	-1.2	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	77	-0.1
✕Andy Paz 2015 · A	22	38	38→40	45	44	186/245/261	75	253	6	5	28%	7%	44	-2.8	217/271/283	66	297	4	6	26%	7%	58	-1.7	246/291/294	49	312	2	7	21%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Gorge Munoz 2017 · A	21	43	38→40	50→55	42	205/260/282	78	258	5	17	22%	5%	54	-2.0	206/257/291	85	297	7	10	31%	5%	55	-1.9	189/234/268	78	291	9	9	37%	3%	38	-0.8
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2010 · A	21	33	41→45	40→50	41	166/249/256	90	260	9	8	37%	8%	46	-2.6	199/274/309	110	312	10	5	36%	8%	67	-1.1	204/303/338	134	292	14	2	32%	11%	85	+0.1
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	39	39→40	46→50	36	192/235/276	84	265	7	5	30%	4%	43	-2.8	192/239/270	78	302	5	7	36%	5%	43	-2.8	140/190/175	36	236	0	6	38%	6%	0	-1.0
✕Jairo Encarnacion 2007 · A	21	44	41→40	52→45	46	212/274/306	95	244	9	8	18%	6%	65	-1.2	229/298/318	89	272	8	7	18%	7%	77	-0.3	246/322/325	79	284	8	4	15%	7%	86	+0.1
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→38	40	52→50	39	198/250/294	96	274	6	10	29%	5%	53	-2.1	216/274/318	102	332	9	10	35%	7%	68	-1.0	210/271/306	96	328	9	12	36%	7%	61	-0.9
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Richard Rodriguez 2014 · A	21	42	33→30	48→50	48	196/255/237	41	245	1	14	20%	7%	42	-2.9	237/286/279	42	293	1	10	18%	6%	61	-1.5	240/292/258	18	289	0	11	16%	7%	58	-0.6
✕Omar Guerra 2008 · A	21	41	35→30	48→50	45	193/274/246	53	257	2	9	24%	7%	53	-2.1	220/315/279	59	272	2	11	19%	6%	76	-0.4	229/342/268	39	277	0	15	15%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Carlos Torres 2014 · A	21	39	38→30	47→50	42	192/253/263	71	257	6	9	27%	6%	47	-2.5	191/232/261	70	262	5	6	28%	4%	38	-3.2	186/218/244	58	251	3	4	27%	3%	26	-1.2
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A	19	35	41→45	47→60	41	179/238/272	93	242	10	13	30%	6%	44	-2.8	221/272/301	80	288	7	19	24%	6%	63	-1.4	235/283/299	64	303	5	24	23%	5%	64	-0.4
✕Alfredo González 2013 · A	21	39	35→30	51→45	39	186/228/249	63	238	2	10	22%	4%	34	-3.5	215/275/289	74	289	5	9	25%	7%	61	-1.5	232/294/283	50	313	3	6	25%	7%	64	-0.5
✕Glenn Santiago 2022 · A	21	43	40	51→45	49	207/278/298	91	250	7	11	20%	7%	65	-1.2	199/261/287	88	292	7	8	32%	7%	56	-1.9	182/247/261	79	270	7	8	33%	7%	43	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps