Waner Luciano — OGILVIE

Waner LucianoSS Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 210 lbs A HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION144 act + 159 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .266 / .303

PA159

HR3

SB5

K%23

BB%6

BABIP243

ISO103

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.8M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
Totals		$7M		$9M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL HOU Orange	—	214	187	30	7	1	6	17	63	9	9	2	160	263	305	568	144	202	29	8	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL HOU Orange	—	214	170	39	11	2	6	34	42	9	9	2	229	385	424	809	194	268	20	16	366	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	194	175	28	6	0	4	13	47	4	5	0	160	234	263	497	103	190	24	7	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	194	166	41	8	0	10	22	36	4	5	0	247	349	476	825	229	254	19	11	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	267	37	8	0	2	21	85	6	1	3	139	218	191	409	52	190	29	7	189	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	252	47	12	0	3	36	62	6	1	3	187	303	270	573	83	230	21	12	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	285	41	6	0	4	14	90	8	13	3	144	205	207	412	63	192	29	5	189	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	273	49	9	0	5	26	63	8	13	3	179	270	267	538	88	213	20	8	251	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	HOU	—	144	124	30	7	0	6	12	24	4	9	2	242	329	444	772	202	245	17	8	323	105	+1	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.8
YTD	21	A	HOU	—	144	117	32	8	0	6	19	17	4	9	2	274	393	496	889	222	265	12	13	384	152	+8	+1	+0	+2	+4	1.5
ROS	21	A	HOU	0%	159	145	29	6	0	3	10	36	3	5	1	200	266	303	569	103	243	23	6	264	60	-7	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.0
ROS	21	MLB	HOU	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		246	—	—	251	50	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	A	HOU	—	144	125	30	7	0	6	12	24	4	9	2	240	329	440	769	200	242	17	8	323	105	+1	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.8
TOT	21	A	HOU	—	303	269	59	13	0	9	22	60	7	14	3	219	295	368	663	149	244	20	7	292	82	-6	+2	+0	+3	+9	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	HOU	34%	357	323	67	13	1	8	24	79	7	7	2	207	277	328	605	121	247	22	7	270	65	-14	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.0
2028	23	MLB	HOU	48%	431	390	83	17	1	10	30	94	8	9	2	213	283	338	621	126	251	22	7	279	72	-14	+1	+0	+5	+12	0.4
2029	24	MLB	HOU	53%	481	435	94	19	1	12	34	104	9	10	3	216	287	347	634	131	254	22	7	284	76	-13	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.7
2030	25	MLB	HOU	55%	508	457	100	20	1	13	37	109	9	10	3	219	290	352	643	133	255	21	7	288	78	-13	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.8
2031	26	MLB	HOU	56%	523	470	102	20	1	14	38	113	10	10	3	217	290	353	643	136	254	22	7	288	79	-12	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.9
2032	27	MLB	HOU	55%	528	474	103	20	1	14	39	114	10	10	3	217	291	352	643	135	254	22	7	289	79	-12	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.9
2033	28	MLB	HOU	55%	526	471	101	20	1	13	40	114	10	10	3	214	290	344	634	130	254	22	8	288	78	-13	+1	-1	+6	+15	0.8
2034	29	MLB	HOU	53%	518	464	100	20	1	13	39	114	10	9	3	216	290	347	637	131	253	22	8	286	77	-13	+1	-1	+6	+15	0.6
2035	30	MLB	HOU	57%	508	455	97	19	1	12	39	113	9	8	2	213	288	338	627	125	252	22	8	284	75	-14	+1	-2	+5	+14	0.4
2036	31	MLB	HOU	60%	495	446	93	18	1	12	37	111	9	8	2	209	283	334	617	126	250	22	7	280	72	-16	+1	-3	+5	+14	0.2
2037	32	MLB	HOU	61%	477	429	89	17	1	11	36	109	9	7	2	207	283	329	611	121	247	23	8	274	68	-17	+1	-4	+5	+14	-0.1
2027	22	MLB	HOU	34%	123	112	24	5	0	3	8	27	2	3	1	214	279	339	618	125	249	22	7	259	56	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	HOU	48%	209	188	40	8	0	5	15	46	4	4	1	213	285	335	620	122	253	22	7	268	63	-9	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.0
2029	24	MLB	HOU	53%	254	229	50	10	1	6	18	55	5	5	1	218	290	349	639	131	256	22	7	274	68	-9	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2030	25	MLB	HOU	55%	278	251	55	11	1	7	20	60	5	5	2	219	290	355	644	135	257	22	7	277	70	-9	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.2
2031	26	MLB	HOU	56%	291	263	59	12	1	8	21	63	5	6	2	224	294	369	663	144	257	22	7	278	71	-10	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.2
2032	27	MLB	HOU	55%	290	261	57	11	1	8	22	63	5	6	2	218	292	360	652	142	257	22	8	278	71	-9	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.2
2033	28	MLB	HOU	55%	288	259	57	11	1	8	22	63	5	5	1	220	294	363	657	143	257	22	8	277	71	-10	+1	-0	+3	+8	0.2
2034	29	MLB	HOU	53%	276	248	53	11	0	7	21	61	5	5	1	214	288	343	631	129	256	22	8	276	69	-10	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.1
2035	30	MLB	HOU	57%	290	261	55	11	0	7	22	64	5	5	1	211	285	333	618	123	255	22	8	273	67	-11	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.0
2036	31	MLB	HOU	60%	295	266	55	11	0	7	22	66	5	5	1	207	280	327	607	120	253	22	7	270	64	-12	+1	-2	+3	+8	-0.1
2037	32	MLB	HOU	61%	292	263	55	11	0	7	22	67	5	4	1	209	283	331	614	122	250	23	8	264	60	-13	+0	-2	+3	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2886	2602	560	112	5	73	213	635	51	53	14	215	288	346	634	131	256	22	7	273	67	-107	+5	-6	+31	+82	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	125	25	1	16	48	143	11	12	3	213	285	341	626	128	254	22	7	273	67	-24	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	6526	5873	1194	236	12	151	468	1495	130	131	37	203	277	325	602	121	245	23	7	271	66	-252	+11	-10	+70	+185	0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	119	24	1	15	47	149	13	13	4	203	278	325	603	121	245	23	7	271	66	-25	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL HOU Orange	—	214	170	39	11	2	6	34	42	9	9	2	229	385	424	809	194	268	20	16	366	138	+9	+1	—	—	+6	1.7
2023	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	194	166	41	8	0	10	22	36	4	5	0	247	349	476	825	229	254	19	11	362	135	+8	+1	—	—	+5	1.4
2024	19	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	252	47	12	0	3	36	62	6	1	3	187	303	270	573	83	230	21	12	269	64	-12	-1	—	—	+8	-0.5
2025	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	273	49	9	0	5	26	63	8	13	3	179	270	267	538	88	213	20	8	251	51	-17	+1	—	—	+9	-0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,188	75	57	212	281	337	+34	+21	2.6	2.7
	/162	664	16	12	212	281	337	+7.1	+4.4	0.5	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Waner Luciano (OGILVIE)	21	25	30	50	30	219/295/368	149	244	9	14	20%	7%	82	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	33	40→45	45→50	36	171/214/256	85	249	7	7	34%	5%	21	-3.7	187/224/281	94	269	6	9	32%	4%	32	-3.0	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	39	38→30	48→45	42	188/251/269	81	260	6	7	29%	6%	42	-2.3	199/274/280	81	291	6	6	31%	8%	55	-1.4	183/255/250	66	251	6	11	27%	8%	37	-0.7
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	39	39→40	46→50	36	192/235/276	84	265	7	5	30%	4%	36	-2.7	190/239/268	78	302	5	7	36%	5%	35	-2.8	130/184/163	32	225	0	6	40%	6%	-19	-1.1
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Luis De La Cruz 2010 · A	21	41	38→40	47→30	40	197/233/275	77	246	5	6	22%	4%	33	-2.9	220/253/314	94	277	6	6	22%	4%	52	-1.6	244/267/328	84	295	4	3	18%	3%	57	-0.3
✕Gorge Munoz 2017 · A	21	43	38→40	50→55	42	205/260/282	78	258	5	17	22%	5%	48	-1.9	205/257/290	85	298	7	10	32%	5%	49	-1.8	185/231/261	77	287	9	9	37%	3%	28	-0.8
✕Omar Guerra 2008 · A	21	41	35→30	48→50	45	193/274/246	53	257	2	9	24%	7%	46	-2.0	220/315/279	59	272	2	11	19%	6%	73	-0.1	229/342/268	39	277	0	15	15%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Albert Laboy 2007 · A	20	40→38	38→40	48→45	41	193/236/269	76	242	5	10	22%	5%	34	-2.8	216/262/306	90	258	9	7	19%	5%	55	-1.4	213/261/298	85	248	10	6	18%	5%	51	-0.9
✕Andy Paz 2015 · A	22	38	38→40	45	44	185/245/261	75	253	6	5	28%	7%	37	-2.7	210/264/277	67	293	4	6	28%	7%	48	-1.9	226/270/274	48	296	3	7	23%	6%	46	-0.7
✕Alex Todd 2012 · A	22	38	37→40	44→45	38	185/246/256	71	259	4	4	29%	5%	37	-2.7	220/285/305	85	299	6	6	27%	5%	65	-0.7	236/303/318	83	317	6	5	26%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Carlos Torres 2014 · A	21	39	38→30	47→50	42	192/253/263	71	257	6	9	27%	6%	40	-2.4	191/232/261	70	262	5	6	28%	5%	30	-3.1	187/220/244	57	251	3	4	26%	3%	17	-1.1
✕Jose Ramirez 2010 · A	21	39	38→40	46→50	43	188/249/265	77	248	5	10	25%	6%	40	-2.4	211/278/295	84	273	7	11	24%	7%	60	-1.0	214/288/286	72	266	9	15	22%	7%	59	-0.5
✕Alfredo González 2013 · A	21	39	35→40	51→45	39	186/228/249	63	238	2	10	22%	4%	25	-3.5	214/274/288	74	290	5	9	26%	7%	56	-1.3	229/290/281	52	315	3	6	26%	7%	57	-0.5
✕Jesus Villegas 2008 · A	21	40	36→40	50	40	188/252/260	71	252	3	8	25%	5%	40	-2.4	223/278/291	68	291	4	7	23%	6%	58	-1.2	233/283/293	59	302	4	8	23%	5%	56	-0.4
✕Emilio King 2011 · A	21	37	36→45	45→40	37	178/245/248	70	273	3	6	34%	5%	34	-2.8	215/257/310	95	317	7	4	33%	4%	54	-1.4	252/282/371	119	340	11	3	28%	2%	76	+0.0
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2019 · A	20	35	38→45	47→40	46	171/243/241	71	215	6	3	23%	7%	32	-3.0	206/263/288	82	261	6	4	22%	6%	51	-1.7	226/269/325	99	274	9	1	21%	4%	62	-0.3
✕Gregori Gonzalez 2010 · A	21	39	35→30	46→55	38	188/230/246	58	269	3	14	30%	5%	25	-3.5	217/258/295	78	269	3	13	20%	4%	50	-1.8	230/267/317	87	275	3	15	17%	3%	58	-0.3
✕Miguel Rodriguez 2007 · A	20	35	37→45	48→45	34	175/223/246	71	263	5	6	34%	4%	23	-3.6	209/264/290	81	278	5	5	25%	5%	52	-1.6	217/275/301	85	280	4	3	23%	5%	58	-0.5