Waner Luciano
SS Fayetteville Woodpeckers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | AHOU | 298 | .187/.303/.270 | 3 | 1 | 26 | — | .148/.235/.205 |
| 2025 | 20 | AHOU | 309 | .179/.270/.267 | 5 | 13 | 17 | — | .149/.218/.216 |
| 2026 | 21 | A/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 356 | .264/.394/.438 | 10 | 24 | 94 | — | .223/.323/.366 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBHOU | 429 | .200/.282/.309 | 8 | 11 | 69 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBHOU | 83 | .208/.290/.326 | 2 | 2 | 74 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBHOU | 149 | .212/.294/.335 | 3 | 3 | 77 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL HOU Orange | — | 214 | 170 | 39 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 42 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 229 | 385 | 424 | 809 | 194 | 268 | 20 | 16 | 366 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 194 | 166 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 36 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 247 | 349 | 476 | 825 | 229 | 254 | 19 | 11 | 362 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 298 | 252 | 47 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 62 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 187 | 303 | 270 | 573 | 83 | 230 | 21 | 12 | 269 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 309 | 273 | 49 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 63 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 179 | 270 | 267 | 538 | 88 | 213 | 20 | 8 | 251 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 303 | 245 | 64 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 48 | 51 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 261 | 391 | 445 | 835 | 184 | 289 | 17 | 16 | 369 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 16 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 333 | 500 | 583 | 1.083 | 250 | 333 | 12 | 25 | 474 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 37 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 258 | 378 | 323 | 701 | 65 | 348 | 22 | 14 | 330 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Orange | — | 214 | 182 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 52 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 132 | 258 | 225 | 483 | 93 | 166 | 24 | 10 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 194 | 174 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 49 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 172 | 250 | 310 | 560 | 138 | 196 | 25 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 298 | 264 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 83 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 148 | 235 | 205 | 439 | 57 | 197 | 28 | 8 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 309 | 282 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 86 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 149 | 218 | 216 | 435 | 67 | 189 | 28 | 6 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 303 | 259 | 57 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 69 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 220 | 320 | 359 | 679 | 139 | 256 | 23 | 11 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 16 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 286 | 375 | 500 | 875 | 214 | 262 | 19 | 12 | 350 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Orange | — | 214 | 182 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 52 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 132 | 258 | 225 | 483 | 93 | 164 | 24 | 10 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL HOU Orange | — | 214 | 170 | 39 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 42 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 229 | 385 | 424 | 809 | 194 | 268 | 20 | 16 | 366 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 194 | 174 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 49 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 172 | 250 | 310 | 560 | 138 | 198 | 25 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Astros | — | 194 | 166 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 36 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 247 | 349 | 476 | 825 | 229 | 254 | 19 | 11 | 362 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 298 | 264 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 83 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 148 | 235 | 205 | 439 | 57 | 202 | 28 | 8 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 298 | 252 | 47 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 62 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 187 | 303 | 270 | 573 | 83 | 230 | 21 | 12 | 269 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 309 | 282 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 86 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 149 | 218 | 216 | 435 | 67 | 196 | 28 | 6 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 309 | 273 | 49 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 63 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 179 | 270 | 267 | 538 | 88 | 213 | 20 | 8 | 251 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 356 | 305 | 67 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 81 | 5 | 24 | 6 | 220 | 320 | 364 | 684 | 144 | 264 | 23 | 11 | 303 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 356 | 288 | 76 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 57 | 61 | 5 | 24 | 6 | 264 | 394 | 438 | 832 | 174 | 297 | 17 | 16 | 370 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Orange | — | 214 | 181 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 52 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 133 | 258 | 227 | 485 | 94 | 166 | 24 | 10 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 194 | 174 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 49 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 172 | 250 | 310 | 560 | 138 | 196 | 25 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 298 | 266 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 83 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 147 | 235 | 203 | 438 | 56 | 197 | 28 | 8 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 309 | 281 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 86 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 149 | 218 | 217 | 435 | 68 | 189 | 28 | 6 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 356 | 308 | 67 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 81 | 5 | 24 | 6 | 218 | 320 | 360 | 680 | 143 | 256 | 23 | 11 | 303 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 298 | 266 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 83 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 147 | 235 | 203 | 438 | 56 | 197 | 28 | 8 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 309 | 281 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 86 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 149 | 218 | 217 | 435 | 68 | 189 | 28 | 6 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 356 | 308 | 67 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 81 | 5 | 24 | 6 | 218 | 320 | 360 | 680 | 143 | 256 | 23 | 11 | 303 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | HOU | 0% | 429 | 382 | 77 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 99 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 200 | 282 | 309 | 591 | 108 | 247 | 23 | 9 | 270 | 69 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | HOU | 34% | 241 | 215 | 44 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 55 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 205 | 287 | 322 | 610 | 117 | 250 | 23 | 9 | 277 | 74 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | HOU | 46% | 323 | 287 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 73 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 209 | 291 | 331 | 623 | 122 | 253 | 23 | 9 | 283 | 77 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | HOU | 52% | 370 | 329 | 70 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 83 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 212 | 294 | 337 | 631 | 126 | 255 | 22 | 9 | 286 | 80 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | HOU | 54% | 397 | 353 | 75 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 89 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 213 | 295 | 341 | 636 | 127 | 256 | 22 | 9 | 288 | 81 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | HOU | 54% | 408 | 363 | 77 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 92 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 214 | 295 | 342 | 637 | 128 | 258 | 23 | 9 | 288 | 81 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | HOU | 54% | 408 | 363 | 77 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 93 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 212 | 294 | 337 | 631 | 125 | 257 | 23 | 9 | 286 | 79 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | HOU | 53% | 401 | 357 | 76 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 92 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 210 | 291 | 331 | 622 | 121 | 256 | 23 | 9 | 282 | 77 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | HOU | 57% | 391 | 348 | 72 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 91 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 207 | 288 | 324 | 611 | 117 | 254 | 23 | 9 | 278 | 74 | -12 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | HOU | 34% | 83 | 75 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 290 | 326 | 615 | 117 | 254 | 23 | 8 | 280 | 74 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | HOU | 46% | 149 | 133 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 294 | 335 | 628 | 123 | 257 | 23 | 9 | 285 | 77 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | HOU | 52% | 191 | 169 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 296 | 341 | 637 | 126 | 259 | 23 | 9 | 288 | 80 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | HOU | 54% | 215 | 191 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 48 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 216 | 297 | 344 | 641 | 128 | 261 | 22 | 9 | 290 | 81 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | HOU | 54% | 221 | 196 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 50 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 217 | 298 | 345 | 643 | 128 | 262 | 23 | 9 | 291 | 81 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | HOU | 54% | 221 | 196 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 50 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 296 | 340 | 636 | 126 | 261 | 23 | 9 | 288 | 79 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | HOU | 53% | 213 | 189 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 213 | 293 | 334 | 628 | 122 | 260 | 23 | 9 | 285 | 77 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | HOU | 57% | 222 | 197 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 290 | 327 | 617 | 117 | 259 | 23 | 9 | 280 | 74 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1515 | 1346 | 284 | 62 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 345 | 21 | 28 | 8 | 211 | 293 | 328 | 621 | 117 | 258 | 23 | 9 | 286 | 68 | -39 | +2 | -2 | +16 | +33 | 1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 577 | 123 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 148 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 213 | 295 | 333 | 628 | 120 | 261 | 23 | 9 | 286 | 68 | -17 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4515 | 4004 | 791 | 170 | 8 | 92 | 399 | 1066 | 72 | 113 | 31 | 198 | 282 | 313 | 595 | 115 | 243 | 24 | 9 | 269 | 68 | -84 | +5 | -4 | +34 | +68 | 2.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 113 | 24 | 1 | 13 | 57 | 153 | 10 | 16 | 4 | 196 | 279 | 309 | 588 | 113 | 242 | 24 | 9 | 269 | 68 | -17 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 303 PAwOBA .366 → .301 (−65)K% 16.8% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.83% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 11.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×1.015 | 17.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×1.015 | 7.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.77% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .366 → .301; ISO .184 → .153; BABIP .289 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Astros · 16 PAwOBA .463 → .350 (−112)K% 12.5% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 15.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 24.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 7.68% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .463 → .350; ISO .250 → .205; BABIP .333 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 309 PAwOBA .247 → .194 (−53)K% 20.4% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.39% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.41% | ÷1.072 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 5.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.59% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 15.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.035 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 3.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.005 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.95% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 91, K 99, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .247 → .194; ISO .088 → .067; BABIP .213 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 298 PAwOBA .263 → .207 (−57)K% 20.8% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.81% | ÷1.020 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.41% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 8.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.01% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.84% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×1.045 | 15.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.32% | ÷1.132 | ×0.830 | ×0.973 | ×1.045 | 4.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.973 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.58% | ÷1.118 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.18% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 108, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .263 → .207; ISO .083 → .061; BABIP .230 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Astros · 194 PAwOBA .356 → .244 (−112)K% 18.6% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.56% | ÷1.058 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.34% | ÷1.007 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 7.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.06% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.69% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | ×0.978 | ×1.022 | 14.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.15% | ÷0.939 | ×0.720 | ×0.978 | ×1.022 | 4.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.978 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.379 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 4.45% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 103, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 112, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .356 → .244; ISO .229 → .140; BABIP .254 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL HOU Orange · 214 PAwOBA .359 → .228 (−131)K% 19.6% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.63% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.89% | ÷1.127 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 10.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.21% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.62% | ÷0.978 | ×0.680 | ×0.956 | ×1.022 | 10.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.59% | ÷1.051 | ×0.600 | ×0.956 | ×1.022 | 4.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.035 | ×0.600 | ×0.956 | ×1.022 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.69% | ÷0.912 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 2.47% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 96, 2B 110, 3B 107, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .359 → .228; ISO .194 → .110; BABIP .268 → .166. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .