Rafael Ramirez — OGILVIE

Rafael RamirezSS FCL Astros

Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 185 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .259 / .279

PA4

HR0

K%33

BB%7

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL HOU Blue	—	164	144	22	3	1	3	15	40	4	7	3	153	252	250	502	97	186	24	9	236	46	-11	+0	—	—	+4	-0.7
2023	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	126	108	29	3	2	3	14	27	2	5	2	269	363	417	780	148	325	21	11	346	120	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2024	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	86	70	13	2	0	2	12	33	3	5	2	186	329	300	629	114	306	38	14	296	86	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	—	164	150	17	2	1	2	9	58	4	7	3	113	184	180	364	67	153	35	5	162	-4	-20	+0	—	—	+4	-1.7
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	126	113	21	2	1	2	9	39	2	5	2	186	258	274	532	88	244	31	7	241	49	-8	+0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	86	75	8	1	0	1	7	47	3	5	2	107	212	160	372	53	243	55	8	182	9	-9	+0	—	—	+2	-0.7
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	—	164	150	17	2	1	2	9	58	4	7	3	113	184	180	364	67	165	35	5	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Blue	—	164	144	22	3	1	3	15	40	4	7	3	153	252	250	502	97	186	24	9	236	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	126	113	21	2	1	2	9	39	2	5	2	186	258	274	532	88	257	31	7	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	126	108	29	3	2	3	14	27	2	5	2	269	363	417	780	148	325	21	11	346	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	86	75	8	1	0	1	7	47	3	5	2	107	212	160	372	53	250	55	8	182	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	86	70	13	2	0	2	12	33	3	5	2	186	329	300	629	114	306	38	14	296	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	—	164	150	17	2	1	2	9	58	4	7	3	113	184	180	364	67	153	35	5	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	126	114	21	2	1	2	9	39	2	5	2	184	258	272	530	88	244	31	7	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	86	76	8	1	0	1	7	47	3	5	2	105	212	158	370	53	243	55	8	182	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	126	114	21	2	1	2	9	39	2	5	2	184	258	272	530	88	244	31	7	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	86	76	8	1	0	1	7	47	3	5	2	105	212	158	370	53	243	55	8	182	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	21	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		286	25	0	248	54	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	115	105	21	3	1	2	8	37	1	2	0	200	263	305	568	105	288	32	7	260	62	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	48%	250	226	47	7	2	5	19	78	3	4	1	208	278	323	601	115	289	31	8	268	68	-10	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	349	316	66	11	2	7	26	107	4	6	1	209	277	323	600	114	290	31	7	274	71	-12	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	409	370	79	13	3	9	31	124	5	7	2	214	283	338	621	124	290	30	8	277	74	-13	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	HOU	56%	447	405	86	14	3	10	34	136	5	7	2	212	282	336	617	123	290	30	8	278	74	-14	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	466	421	88	14	3	10	36	142	6	7	2	209	281	328	609	119	290	30	8	278	74	-14	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	473	427	89	14	3	10	37	145	6	7	2	208	281	326	606	117	290	31	8	277	74	-15	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	471	425	89	14	3	10	37	145	6	7	2	209	282	327	609	118	289	31	8	276	73	-15	+1	-1	+5	+10	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	40	37	7	1	0	1	3	13	0	1	0	189	250	297	547	108	290	32	8	252	62	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	48%	121	110	23	4	1	2	9	38	1	2	0	209	275	318	593	109	291	31	7	260	68	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	184	166	35	6	1	4	14	56	2	3	1	211	280	331	612	120	292	30	8	265	71	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	224	202	44	7	2	5	17	68	3	4	1	218	288	347	635	129	292	30	8	268	74	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	HOU	56%	249	225	48	8	2	5	19	76	3	4	1	213	283	333	617	120	292	31	8	270	74	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	256	231	49	8	2	5	20	78	3	4	1	212	283	329	612	117	292	30	8	270	74	-8	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	259	234	49	8	2	5	20	79	3	4	1	209	280	325	605	115	292	31	8	269	74	-8	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	251	226	48	8	2	5	20	77	3	4	1	212	285	332	617	119	291	31	8	267	73	-8	+0	-1	+3	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1584	1431	303	50	12	32	122	485	18	26	6	212	282	331	613	119	294	31	8	267	66	-51	+3	-1	+17	+34	0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	125	21	5	13	50	199	7	11	2	213	282	332	614	119	296	31	8	267	66	-21	+1	-0	+7	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3360	3037	612	95	22	68	253	1059	45	64	19	202	273	314	587	113	282	32	8	266	66	-98	+5	-2	+32	+65	0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	118	18	4	13	49	205	9	12	4	201	272	311	584	111	282	32	8	266	66	-21	+1	-0	+7	+14	0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.5	1,638	34	26	211	278	329	+18	+15	1.2	1.2
/162	664	14	10	+7.1	+6.1	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Ramirez (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	192/259/279	88	286	1	1	33%	7%	54	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	63	-1.4	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	57	-1.8	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	33	-1.0
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	38→41	41→50	48→50	45	182/267/286	104	281	8	8	35%	9%	59	-1.7	201/262/332	131	290	13	10	34%	6%	67	-1.1	219/271/366	148	290	19	9	30%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Jase Bowen 2022 · A	21	37→40	42→50	54→55	35	184/245/283	99	282	10	12	37%	5%	50	-2.3	197/252/315	118	289	14	16	35%	5%	59	-1.6	203/254/335	133	288	14	24	34%	5%	62	-0.9
✕Frank Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	40	40→45	48→30	38	195/255/282	87	294	7	4	35%	6%	53	-2.1	178/234/262	84	256	7	3	32%	6%	40	-3.0	183/244/267	84	244	9	1	28%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→45	51→45	39	201/262/293	92	296	7	7	33%	6%	57	-1.8	195/269/306	111	299	13	8	37%	7%	65	-1.2	180/257/292	111	259	15	7	35%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Yu Chang 2017 · A	21	40→44	45→50	49→45	38	203/253/331	128	284	12	8	32%	6%	63	-1.3	200/259/336	136	279	14	8	32%	6%	67	-1.1	212/267/370	158	271	20	6	29%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	42→52	39→45	50	41	204/263/293	89	285	6	11	29%	6%	58	-1.7	228/278/329	101	310	10	10	28%	6%	72	-0.7	235/295/316	82	324	8	12	28%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Niko Vasquez 2010 · A	21	41	37→50	46→45	42	193/260/264	71	288	5	6	33%	8%	51	-2.3	197/270/305	108	273	9	3	29%	8%	64	-1.3	221/278/353	132	287	16	6	28%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Pablo Aliendo 2022 · A	21	39	39→50	44→45	37	186/262/264	78	301	7	6	38%	6%	52	-2.2	204/269/325	121	300	13	5	35%	6%	68	-1.0	197/266/334	137	285	16	5	35%	7%	66	-0.6
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	172/216/255	83	252	7	7	34%	5%	31	-3.7	189/226/284	95	266	6	9	30%	4%	41	-3.0	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Jordyn Adams 2021 · A	21	41	40→45	47→60	42	200/264/290	90	290	8	9	32%	7%	58	-1.7	191/247/278	87	313	7	24	39%	6%	49	-2.4	188/249/290	102	288	11	26	37%	7%	50	-1.3
✕Dusty Ryan 2006 · A	21	37→46	40→50	43→40	38	183/235/269	86	268	8	6	34%	6%	42	-2.9	200/264/305	105	311	11	4	37%	7%	61	-1.5	205/282/349	144	303	16	3	35%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→48	39→45	48→50	45	182/274/268	86	264	6	10	31%	8%	58	-1.7	206/278/301	95	283	7	11	28%	7%	66	-1.1	217/289/313	96	287	8	16	26%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Monte Harrison 2017 · A	21	38→44	39→50	52→60	34	177/245/258	81	304	6	14	41%	6%	44	-2.8	207/262/331	124	336	14	19	40%	5%	67	-1.1	192/260/311	120	338	15	41	45%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Luis De Los Santos 2019 · A	21	40→48	40→45	53→45	35	198/241/288	90	276	7	8	30%	4%	49	-2.4	201/246/304	103	287	9	7	32%	4%	54	-2.0	216/280/325	109	289	11	7	28%	7%	70	-0.5
✕Sean Coyle 2013 · A	21	38→36	45→50	54→50	38	193/255/316	124	276	12	13	34%	6%	61	-1.5	204/262/352	148	296	18	14	36%	6%	72	-0.7	194/255/352	157	279	21	15	37%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Brandon Dailey 2013 · A	21	42	40→45	55	37	203/248/300	97	293	7	12	32%	5%	53	-2.1	194/247/296	102	286	9	6	34%	6%	53	-2.1	142/197/217	75	196	6	0	30%	5%	15	-1.1
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→40	41→45	48→50	41	200/267/299	99	282	9	10	31%	6%	61	-1.5	203/296/305	102	299	9	8	32%	10%	74	-0.5	186/292/283	98	277	9	10	33%	11%	67	-0.7
✕Adan Velazquez 2011 · A	21	42→52	41→45	52→50	40	203/262/305	102	282	7	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	219/266/310	91	294	7	9	27%	5%	63	-1.4	243/282/332	89	297	7	6	20%	4%	70	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps