Marco Marcelino — OGILVIE

Marco MarcelinoOF DSL Astros Blue

Age 21 R/R 5'9" / 190 lbs ROK HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj PA

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .279 / .282

PA56

HR1

K%31

BB%8

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL HOU Blue	—	63	54	8	0	0	0	6	24	0	6	0	148	233	148	381		242	38	10	188	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL HOU Blue	—	63	49	9	0	0	0	11	17	0	6	0	184	333	184	517		257	27	17	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	83	65	10	0	0	1	10	35	7	3	4	154	329	200	529	46	300	42	12	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	83	59	12	0	0	2	16	26	7	3	4	203	427	305	732	102	312	31	19	356	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	89	79	12	2	1	1	8	26	2	5	0	152	247	241	488	89	212	29	9	212	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	89	74	15	3	1	1	13	17	2	5	0	203	337	311	648	108	250	19	15	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	HOU	—	56	50	10	2	0	1	5	17	1	1	0	200	286	300	586	100	288	30	9	261	58	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	HOU	34%	115	103	21	3	1	2	9	34	2	2	0	204	281	311	591	107	290	30	8	271	65	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
2028	23	MLB	HOU	48%	250	223	48	8	2	4	21	72	4	4	1	215	294	323	617	108	291	29	8	278	71	-8	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.2
2027	22	MLB	HOU	34%	40	36	7	1	0	1	3	12	1	1	0	194	275	306	581	111	292	30	8	260	57	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	HOU	48%	121	108	23	4	1	2	10	35	2	2	0	213	292	324	616	111	293	29	8	268	63	-5	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	161	144	30	5	1	3	13	47	3	3	0	208	287	319	607	111	284	29	8	266	61	-7	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	121	20	4	12	52	190	12	12	0	208	286	318	605	110	285	29	8	266	61	-28	+2	+0	-4	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	656	574	109	15	4	9	59	208	16	21	5	190	284	277	561	87	275	32	9	253	52	-36	+2	+0	-4	+19	-1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	569	108	15	4	9	58	206	16	21	5	190	283	278	561	88	275	32	9	253	52	-35	+2	+0	-4	+18	-1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL HOU Blue	—	63	49	9	0	0	0	11	17	0	6	0	184	333	184	517		257	27	17	251	50	-4	+1	—	—	+2	-0.1
2023	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	83	59	12	0	0	2	16	26	7	3	4	203	427	305	732	102	312	31	19	356	130	+3	-1	—	—	+2	0.4
2024	19	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	89	74	15	3	1	1	13	17	2	5	0	203	337	311	648	108	250	19	15	305	92	-1	+1	—	—	+3	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	217	3	3	209	286	308	-1	+0	-0.3	-0.1
	/162	664	10	11	209	286	308	-4.0	+0.0	-0.8	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Marco Marcelino (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	199/279/282	83	288	1	1	31%	8%	58	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Paniagua 2015 · A	21	38	40→50	50→55	42	189/249/288	99	268	7	12	31%	7%	46	-2.0	198/248/295	97	289	8	8	32%	6%	46	-2.0	179/215/276	97	256	10	2	33%	3%	23	-1.0
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→29	42→45	49→50	44	189/258/299	110	261	8	12	30%	8%	53	-1.5	172/250/256	84	262	6	9	34%	9%	38	-2.6	154/242/228	74	235	5	8	33%	9%	26	-2.0
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→38	40→45	52→50	38	198/249/295	97	282	6	10	31%	5%	47	-1.9	217/274/320	103	339	9	10	36%	7%	64	-0.8	212/271/309	97	334	9	12	37%	7%	57	-0.7
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→34	41→45	48→50	40	199/264/295	96	283	9	10	32%	6%	54	-1.4	202/295/301	99	301	9	8	33%	10%	69	-0.4	182/291/276	94	275	9	10	33%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Zack Larson 2015 · A	21	45→35	39→45	52→50	40	217/270/299	82	292	6	11	27%	5%	57	-1.2	190/247/252	62	266	2	10	28%	6%	35	-2.8	164/223/206	43	232	0	12	27%	6%	13	-3.3
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→50	53→55	45	178/254/255	77	243	4	12	27%	8%	40	-2.4	208/276/322	114	297	8	11	31%	7%	66	-0.6	179/262/313	134	284	16	16	40%	8%	57	-0.7
✕Franklin Labour 2019 · A	21	42	39→45	50	43	202/271/295	93	278	6	11	28%	7%	57	-1.2	192/266/288	96	314	7	8	38%	8%	53	-1.5	150/245/272	121	261	13	9	44%	10%	39	-1.0
✕Grolmann Gonzalez 2010 · A	21	40	38→40	52→55	42	193/255/277	85	272	4	9	29%	7%	45	-2.1	209/265/303	94	303	6	7	31%	6%	56	-1.3	218/266/319	101	307	7	4	30%	6%	58	-0.2
✕Allan Cerda 2021 · A	21	45→22	42→55	47→45	42	215/291/320	105	306	9	7	31%	7%	72	-0.2	184/280/353	169	285	20	5	40%	9%	77	+0.1	155/264/323	168	238	21	5	42%	10%	60	-0.6
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	39→28	38→45	51→50	41	185/255/266	81	281	5	13	34%	7%	43	-2.2	211/277/317	106	330	9	15	36%	7%	64	-0.8	193/256/311	118	287	12	16	35%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	40	-2.4	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	46	-2.0	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	42	-0.8
✕Nelson Medina 2022 · A	21	39	38→45	53→50	47	187/270/270	84	274	5	15	31%	9%	51	-1.7	185/255/279	94	336	7	13	43%	8%	46	-2.0	134/194/209	75	291	5	16	52%	6%	-1	-1.8
✕Carlos Dominguez 2021 · A	21	43→23	42→45	51→50	36	201/283/313	112	310	9	12	35%	5%	68	-0.5	166/239/291	125	334	15	12	52%	5%	44	-2.1	124/203/239	115	271	16	13	57%	5%	13	-1.9
✕Jordyn Adams 2021 · A	21	40	40→45	47→60	41	196/258/286	91	287	8	9	33%	7%	49	-1.8	189/245/281	92	306	8	24	38%	6%	41	-2.3	186/248/297	110	286	13	26	38%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Jase Bowen 2022 · A	21	37→38	41→50	54→55	34	183/241/274	91	285	9	12	37%	5%	39	-2.5	193/247/307	114	286	13	16	36%	5%	50	-1.7	200/250/342	142	290	17	24	36%	5%	57	-0.7
✕Leandro Pineda 2023 · A	21	36→39	39→45	47→45	42	172/250/266	95	272	5	6	36%	8%	41	-2.3	201/268/322	121	279	12	6	31%	7%	63	-0.9	202/271/322	120	261	12	6	26%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Max Wagner 2023 · A	21	46→37	41→50	52→55	43	218/293/321	103	305	8	9	29%	7%	73	-0.1	194/265/310	116	302	11	16	36%	8%	59	-1.1	190/262/320	131	289	14	15	37%	8%	57	-0.7
✕Garrett Whitley 2017 · A	20	40→36	42→50	47→55	44	197/267/302	105	280	9	9	31%	8%	56	-1.3	191/270/310	119	334	12	13	42%	9%	61	-1.0	169/260/316	147	293	15	18	44%	10%	55	-0.9
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	40	37→40	50→55	42	191/251/266	76	262	4	12	28%	6%	40	-2.4	205/277/292	87	289	8	19	29%	8%	59	-1.1	203/290/292	89	267	11	29	26%	9%	63	-0.4
✕George Feliz 2023 · A	20	36	40→50	54→45	36	177/234/268	91	293	8	13	40%	6%	33	-2.9	180/242/287	107	318	12	11	44%	6%	43	-2.2	173/237/300	127	283	16	9	43%	6%	41	-0.8