Gabriel Araujo — OGILVIE

Gabriel AraujoOF DSL Arizona Black

Age 21 R/R 6'0" / 175 lbs ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 66 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .279 / .291

PA5

HR0

K%27

BB%7

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL D-backs Black	—	127	109	28	7	2	1	10	22	7	2	4	257	357	385	742	128	310	17	8	336	114	+2	-1	—	—	+3	0.4
2023	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	135	37	4	0	1	16	20	8	16	4	274	384	326	710	52	313	12	10	331	110	+2	+2	—	—	+3	0.7
2024	19	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	124	102	29	6	1	0	18	23	4	10	2	284	411	363	774	78	367	19	15	361	130	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Black	—	127	112	21	5	1	1	7	32	7	2	4	188	278	277	555	89	243	25	6	240	49	-8	-1	—	—	+3	-0.6
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	141	30	3	0	1	10	29	8	16	4	213	302	255	557	43	246	18	6	242	50	-10	+2	—	—	+3	-0.5
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	124	108	24	5	1	0	12	33	4	10	2	222	323	287	610	65	305	27	10	265	65	-5	+1	—	—	+3	-0.1
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Black	—	127	112	21	5	1	1	7	32	7	2	4	188	278	277	555	89	250	25	6	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs Black	—	127	109	28	7	2	1	10	22	7	2	4	257	357	385	742	128	310	17	8	336	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	141	30	3	0	1	10	29	8	16	4	213	302	255	557	43	259	18	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	135	37	4	0	1	16	20	8	16	4	274	384	326	710	52	313	12	10	331	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	124	108	24	5	1	0	12	33	4	10	2	222	323	287	610	65	320	27	10	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	—	124	102	29	6	1	0	18	23	4	10	2	284	411	363	774	78	367	19	15	361	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Black	—	127	112	21	5	1	1	7	32	7	2	4	188	278	277	555	89	243	25	6	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	142	30	3	0	1	10	29	8	16	4	211	302	254	555	42	246	18	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	124	107	24	5	1	0	12	33	4	10	2	224	323	290	612	65	305	27	10	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	142	30	3	0	1	10	29	8	16	4	211	302	254	555	42	246	18	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	124	107	24	5	1	0	12	33	4	10	2	224	323	290	612	65	305	27	10	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	21	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		286	20	0	263	64	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	ARI	34%	117	105	24	4	1	2	9	31	2	3	0	229	302	343	645	114	288	26	8	275	72	-4	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	ARI	48%	252	227	49	8	1	4	19	65	4	5	1	216	288	313	601	97	289	26	8	283	77	-7	+1	+0	-2	+5	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	351	316	72	12	2	7	27	90	5	8	1	228	299	345	644	117	290	26	8	288	81	-8	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	411	371	84	14	2	9	31	104	6	9	2	226	297	348	644	121	290	25	8	291	83	-8	+1	+0	-2	+9	-0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	ARI	56%	448	404	92	15	3	10	34	114	7	10	2	228	299	354	653	126	290	25	8	293	85	-8	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	466	420	96	16	3	10	36	119	7	10	2	229	300	352	653	124	290	26	8	293	85	-9	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	474	427	97	16	3	10	37	121	7	10	2	227	299	349	648	122	290	26	8	292	84	-9	+1	-1	-3	+10	-0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	472	425	96	16	3	10	37	122	7	9	2	226	299	348	647	122	289	26	8	290	83	-10	+1	-1	-3	+10	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	ARI	34%	40	36	8	1	0	1	3	10	1	1	0	222	300	333	633	111	293	25	8	267	72	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	ARI	48%	122	110	25	4	1	2	9	31	2	3	0	227	298	336	634	109	295	25	7	275	77	-3	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	185	166	38	7	1	3	14	47	3	4	1	229	301	337	638	108	296	25	8	280	81	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	225	203	47	8	2	4	17	57	3	5	1	232	300	350	650	118	296	25	8	283	83	-4	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	ARI	56%	249	224	52	9	2	5	19	63	4	5	1	232	304	357	661	125	296	25	8	285	85	-5	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	256	230	53	9	2	5	20	65	4	6	1	230	303	352	655	122	296	25	8	285	85	-5	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	259	233	53	9	2	5	20	66	4	5	1	227	300	348	647	120	295	25	8	284	84	-5	+1	-0	-2	+6	-0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	252	226	52	9	2	5	20	65	4	5	1	230	304	354	658	124	294	26	8	282	83	-5	+1	-1	-2	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1588	1428	328	56	12	30	122	404	25	34	6	230	302	349	650	119	298	25	8	282	79	-33	+4	-1	-10	+34	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	134	23	5	12	50	165	10	14	2	229	301	347	648	118	297	25	8	282	79	-13	+2	-0	-4	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3408	3061	686	114	20	64	259	861	64	92	22	224	298	337	635	113	289	25	8	285	79	-63	+8	-2	-18	+65	-1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	131	22	4	12	49	164	12	18	4	224	298	337	635	113	290	25	8	285	79	-14	+2	-0	-4	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.5	1,655	33	35	227	295	345	-10	+0	0.5	0.6
/162	664	13	14	-4.0	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gabriel Araujo (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	210/279/291	81	286	1	1	27%	7%	64	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Maikel Garcia 2021 · A	21	43→53	36→50	51→60	42	203/261/270	67	295	3	13	31%	7%	51	-2.2	244/303/338	94	314	6	24	22%	8%	82	+0.0	261/321/393	132	295	10	24	15%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	63	-1.4	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	57	-1.8	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	33	-1.0
✕Michael Hermosillo 2015 · A	20	42→47	39→50	51→55	43	200/270/292	92	292	6	11	32%	8%	61	-1.5	217/292/295	78	287	5	17	24%	8%	70	-0.9	227/300/346	119	306	11	20	28%	7%	83	+0.1
●Leandro Castro 2010 · A	21	41→51	39→50	49→50	40	203/246/289	86	258	7	13	24%	4%	50	-2.3	222/254/338	116	270	10	12	21%	3%	64	-1.3	244/286/386	143	268	16	11	16%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Stanley Martinez 2018 · A	21	42	41→45	49→50	46	203/276/300	97	261	8	8	25%	7%	65	-1.2	227/289/332	105	321	9	7	30%	7%	77	-0.3	220/280/293	72	342	5	3	34%	6%	61	-0.4
✕Felix Reyes 2022 · A	21	41→51	43→50	49→45	38	202/267/313	110	283	10	12	31%	5%	65	-1.2	202/243/314	112	256	13	7	26%	4%	55	-1.9	240/273/379	139	275	15	8	19%	4%	81	-0.0
✕Franklin Labour 2019 · A	21	42	39→45	50	43	202/271/295	93	278	6	11	28%	7%	62	-1.4	191/264/289	98	316	7	8	38%	8%	58	-1.7	152/241/272	120	265	13	9	44%	10%	44	-1.1
✕Parker Meadows 2021 · A	21	39→47	41→55	46→55	42	195/250/286	91	268	9	9	30%	6%	51	-2.2	201/262/331	130	269	14	13	29%	7%	67	-1.1	222/289/387	165	276	18	21	26%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2017 · A	21	44→38	39→50	55	45	208/278/297	89	275	6	19	25%	7%	65	-1.2	201/273/331	130	270	13	18	29%	7%	71	-0.8	188/266/323	135	254	14	19	30%	8%	65	-1.0
✕Zack Larson 2015 · A	21	46→36	39→45	52→50	40	220/273/303	83	294	6	11	27%	5%	64	-1.3	194/250/257	63	268	2	10	27%	6%	45	-2.7	169/228/214	45	235	0	12	26%	6%	26	-3.1
✕Cody Freeman 2022 · A	21	43→53	41→50	53→50	48	209/283/307	98	259	8	11	22%	8%	70	-0.9	206/261/321	115	251	13	9	23%	6%	63	-1.3	248/292/385	137	277	15	10	16%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Yeison Asencio 2011 · A	21	40→50	41→45	49→45	45	198/259/301	103	247	8	11	23%	6%	59	-1.7	246/277/364	118	285	9	8	17%	3%	78	-0.3	276/296/387	112	301	11	6	13%	2%	89	+0.5
✕Ryan Vilade 2021 · A	22	47→51	41→55	51→50	46	226/283/325	100	287	8	13	24%	7%	72	-0.7	221/279/309	88	288	6	11	24%	7%	67	-1.1	225/289/385	159	278	18	15	25%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Daz Cameron 2018 · A	21	40→45	45→50	53→55	40	202/262/329	127	284	11	19	32%	6%	66	-1.1	201/268/318	117	295	9	17	33%	7%	66	-1.1	225/296/393	168	284	19	27	27%	8%	91	+0.3
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→45	51→45	39	201/262/293	92	296	7	7	33%	6%	57	-1.8	195/269/306	111	299	13	8	37%	7%	65	-1.2	180/257/292	111	259	15	7	35%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Luis Castro 2017 · A	21	47→42	39→50	48→45	43	222/280/306	83	305	6	9	28%	7%	67	-1.1	221/288/334	113	294	9	8	27%	6%	78	-0.3	203/292/345	142	285	17	8	33%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Eguy Rosario 2021 · A	21	44→52	42→55	49→55	39	214/259/321	107	292	9	12	29%	5%	63	-1.4	228/287/365	137	303	13	20	28%	7%	84	+0.1	224/286/367	142	294	14	21	28%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Devin Mann 2019 · A	22	44	38→50	46→45	48	208/284/291	83	279	5	9	26%	9%	65	-1.2	218/288/366	148	285	17	7	28%	8%	84	+0.2	210/294/364	154	277	16	4	29%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Matthew Lugo 2022 · A	21	47→48	38→55	50	40	220/271/299	78	306	5	10	29%	6%	61	-1.5	224/271/359	135	297	13	14	28%	5%	76	-0.4	219/269/376	157	284	16	17	29%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2023 · A	21	43→44	39→55	49→50	43	209/262/300	92	280	6	8	27%	6%	59	-1.7	212/262/331	119	273	12	10	26%	6%	66	-1.1	228/287/392	163	266	21	11	23%	7%	87	+0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps