Luis Castro
1B Aguilas del Zulia| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28 | INTLAguilas del Z… | 121 | .320/.412/.398 | 0 | 7 | 133 | — | |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 452 | .246/.327/.423 | 15 | 6 | 69 | — | .223/.284/.361 |
| 2026 | 30 | INTLAguilas del Z… | 35 | .300/.400/.600 | 2 | 0 | 178 | — | |
| 2027PROJMLE | 31 | MLBHOU | 380 | .238/.299/.394 | 11 | 7 | 94 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ22% MLB | 32 | MLBHOU | 43 | .235/.296/.384 | 1 | 0 | 89 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 292 | 250 | 66 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 43 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 264 | 361 | 336 | 697 | 72 | 309 | 15 | 10 | 320 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 143 | 123 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 25 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 301 | 386 | 374 | 760 | 73 | 357 | 17 | 10 | 342 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 29 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 286 | 385 | 670 | 154 | 278 | 24 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 43 | 41 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 244 | 279 | 390 | 669 | 146 | 278 | 12 | 0 | 298 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 109 | 96 | 34 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 354 | 431 | 552 | 983 | 198 | 449 | 22 | 5 | 435 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 145 | 131 | 38 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 290 | 347 | 450 | 798 | 160 | 357 | 21 | 6 | 351 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 76 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 387 | 339 | 726 | 119 | 262 | 21 | 16 | 340 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 475 | 385 | 122 | 24 | 2 | 25 | 61 | 98 | 19 | 14 | 3 | 317 | 434 | 584 | 1.019 | 268 | 357 | 21 | 13 | 435 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 24 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 126 | 104 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 381 | 423 | 804 | 173 | 282 | 17 | 15 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 262 | 231 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 89 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 212 | 305 | 372 | 678 | 160 | 306 | 34 | 9 | 307 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 154 | 133 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 256 | 349 | 474 | 822 | 218 | 303 | 25 | 10 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 168 | 138 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 372 | 355 | 727 | 101 | 294 | 18 | 12 | 330 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 131 | 114 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 254 | 331 | 368 | 699 | 114 | 308 | 18 | 10 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 121 | 103 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 320 | 412 | 398 | 810 | 78 | 384 | 16 | 11 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 293 | 258 | 72 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 69 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 279 | 361 | 484 | 845 | 205 | 339 | 24 | 10 | 371 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 103 | 91 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 320 | 352 | 672 | 121 | 328 | 30 | 9 | 308 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 56 | 53 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 113 | 161 | 245 | 406 | 132 | 105 | 23 | 5 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 35 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 400 | 600 | 1.000 | 300 | 350 | 23 | 11 | 432 | 178 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 292 | 259 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 53 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 174 | 257 | 216 | 473 | 42 | 206 | 18 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 143 | 129 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 233 | 293 | 271 | 564 | 39 | 305 | 25 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 43 | 41 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 171 | 209 | 268 | 478 | 98 | 223 | 16 | 0 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 109 | 98 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 255 | 330 | 388 | 718 | 133 | 364 | 31 | 3 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 76 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 190 | 320 | 254 | 574 | 63 | 241 | 25 | 11 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 475 | 401 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 45 | 138 | 19 | 14 | 3 | 224 | 331 | 401 | 733 | 177 | 272 | 29 | 9 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 262 | 239 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 111 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 155 | 229 | 268 | 497 | 113 | 256 | 42 | 6 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 293 | 269 | 64 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 83 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 238 | 296 | 398 | 693 | 160 | 308 | 28 | 6 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 103 | 94 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 181 | 252 | 255 | 508 | 74 | 278 | 36 | 6 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 292 | 259 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 53 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 174 | 257 | 216 | 473 | 42 | 213 | 18 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 292 | 250 | 66 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 43 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 264 | 361 | 336 | 697 | 72 | 309 | 15 | 10 | 320 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 143 | 129 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 233 | 293 | 271 | 564 | 39 | 309 | 25 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK RAW | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 143 | 123 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 25 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 301 | 386 | 374 | 760 | 73 | 357 | 17 | 10 | 342 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | INTL MLE | Bravos de Margarita | — | 29 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 286 | 385 | 670 | 154 | 278 | 24 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | INTL RAW | Bravos de Margarita | — | 29 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 286 | 385 | 670 | 154 | 278 | 24 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 43 | 41 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 171 | 209 | 268 | 478 | 98 | 206 | 16 | 0 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 43 | 41 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 244 | 279 | 390 | 669 | 146 | 278 | 12 | 0 | 298 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 254 | 234 | 58 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 80 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 248 | 304 | 368 | 672 | 120 | 358 | 31 | 3 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 254 | 227 | 72 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 317 | 383 | 493 | 877 | 176 | 395 | 22 | 6 | 387 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 551 | 464 | 103 | 19 | 1 | 19 | 53 | 158 | 23 | 15 | 4 | 222 | 331 | 390 | 722 | 168 | 282 | 29 | 10 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 551 | 444 | 135 | 25 | 2 | 27 | 73 | 114 | 23 | 15 | 4 | 304 | 428 | 552 | 980 | 248 | 344 | 21 | 13 | 422 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 24 | INTL MLE | Bravos de Margarita | — | 126 | 104 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 381 | 423 | 804 | 173 | 282 | 17 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 24 | INTL RAW | Bravos de Margarita | — | 126 | 104 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 381 | 423 | 804 | 173 | 282 | 17 | 15 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 416 | 379 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 176 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 158 | 229 | 274 | 504 | 116 | 258 | 42 | 6 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 416 | 364 | 83 | 19 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 127 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 321 | 409 | 731 | 181 | 305 | 31 | 10 | 327 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | INTL MLE | Bravos de Margarita | — | 168 | 138 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 372 | 355 | 727 | 101 | 294 | 18 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | INTL RAW | Bravos de Margarita | — | 168 | 138 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 372 | 355 | 727 | 101 | 294 | 18 | 12 | 330 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | INTL MLE | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 131 | 114 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 254 | 331 | 368 | 699 | 114 | 308 | 18 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | INTL RAW | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 131 | 114 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 254 | 331 | 368 | 699 | 114 | 308 | 18 | 10 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | INTL MLE | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 121 | 103 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 320 | 412 | 398 | 810 | 78 | 384 | 16 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | INTL RAW | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 121 | 103 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 320 | 412 | 398 | 810 | 78 | 384 | 16 | 11 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 452 | 415 | 91 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 137 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 219 | 280 | 352 | 632 | 133 | 300 | 30 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 452 | 402 | 99 | 22 | 2 | 15 | 40 | 113 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 246 | 327 | 423 | 750 | 177 | 304 | 25 | 9 | 334 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | INTL MLE | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 35 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 400 | 600 | 1.000 | 300 | 350 | 23 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | INTL RAW | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 35 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 400 | 600 | 1.000 | 300 | 350 | 23 | 11 | 432 | 178 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 292 | 261 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 53 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 172 | 257 | 215 | 472 | 42 | 206 | 18 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 18 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 143 | 131 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 229 | 293 | 267 | 560 | 38 | 305 | 25 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 43 | 41 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 171 | 209 | 268 | 478 | 98 | 223 | 16 | 0 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 254 | 233 | 58 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 80 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 249 | 304 | 369 | 673 | 120 | 364 | 31 | 3 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 551 | 470 | 103 | 19 | 1 | 19 | 53 | 158 | 23 | 15 | 4 | 219 | 331 | 385 | 717 | 166 | 268 | 29 | 10 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 416 | 378 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 176 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 159 | 229 | 275 | 505 | 116 | 256 | 42 | 6 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 452 | 414 | 91 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 137 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 220 | 280 | 353 | 633 | 133 | 300 | 30 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 452 | 414 | 91 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 137 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 220 | 280 | 353 | 633 | 133 | 300 | 30 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB MLE | HOU | 0% | 380 | 347 | 82 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 100 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 238 | 299 | 394 | 693 | 156 | 299 | 26 | 7 | 307 | 94 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 32 | MLB MLE | HOU | 22% | 198 | 180 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 232 | 293 | 381 | 675 | 149 | 294 | 27 | 7 | 300 | 89 | -3 | +0 | -4 | -4 | +4 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB CTX | HOU | 22% | 43 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 296 | 384 | 680 | 149 | 298 | 26 | 7 | 302 | 89 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 43 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 302 | 359 | 661 | 128 | 296 | 26 | 7 | 302 | 35 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 136 | 30 | 0 | 15 | 45 | 166 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 302 | 358 | 659 | 127 | 296 | 26 | 7 | 302 | 35 | -8 | +0 | -11 | -12 | +14 | -1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3114 | 2758 | 609 | 124 | 9 | 67 | 236 | 850 | 83 | 58 | 29 | 221 | 302 | 345 | 647 | 124 | 290 | 27 | 8 | 220 | 35 | -4 | +0 | -4 | -6 | +8 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 127 | 26 | 2 | 14 | 49 | 177 | 17 | 12 | 6 | 220 | 301 | 345 | 646 | 125 | 289 | 27 | 8 | 220 | 35 | -7 | +0 | -6 | -12 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 293 PAwOBA .363 → .300 (−63)K% 23.5% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.55% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.22% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 5.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.75% | ÷1.012 | ×0.930 | ×1.027 | ×0.972 | 20.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.47% | ÷0.891 | ×0.830 | ×1.027 | ×0.972 | 7.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×0.972 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.82% | ÷0.961 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 4.12% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .363 → .300; ISO .205 → .164; BABIP .339 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 103 PAwOBA .300 → .234 (−66)K% 30.1% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.10% | ÷1.036 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.74% | ÷0.948 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.948 | 6.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.91% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.948 | 2.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×0.948 | 20.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.930 | ×0.840 | ×0.974 | ×0.948 | 6.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.940 | ×0.974 | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.057 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.948 | 2.39% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 86, 3B 90, K 107, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .300 → .234; ISO .121 → .090; BABIP .328 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABiloxi Shuckers · 262 PAwOBA .299 → .222 (−77)K% 34.0% → 42.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.97% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.16% | ÷1.033 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 6.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.67% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.42% | ÷0.993 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 18.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.75% | ÷1.124 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 5.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.63% | ÷0.929 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.67% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 100, K 96, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .299 → .222; ISO .160 → .117; BABIP .306 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 475 PAwOBA .433 → .319 (−113)K% 20.6% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.63% | ÷0.950 | ×1.340 | — | — | 29.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.63% | ÷0.935 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 9.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 3.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.74% | ÷1.079 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 19.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.36% | ÷1.001 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 6.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.065 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.71% | ÷1.278 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 6.20% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 116, 2B 100, 3B 113, K 90, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .433 → .319; ISO .268 → .187; BABIP .357 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAHartford Yard Goats · 76 PAwOBA .336 → .275 (−61)K% 21.1% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.042 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 10.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.26% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 4.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 22.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.178 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 1.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.190 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.09% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 106, 2B 136, 3B 80, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .336 → .275; ISO .119 → .084; BABIP .262 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 109 PAwOBA .424 → .302 (−121)K% 22.0% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.02% | ÷0.938 | ×1.340 | — | — | 31.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.59% | ÷1.073 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 3.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.34% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 5.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.007 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 24.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.89% | ÷1.025 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 10.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.130 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.531 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 2.50% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 206, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 126, K 88, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .424 → .302; ISO .198 → .122; BABIP .449 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAsheville Tourists · 43 PAwOBA .289 → .223 (−67)K% 11.6% → 15.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.63% | ÷1.018 | ×1.340 | — | — | 15.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.660 | — | — | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.65% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 3.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | — | — | 9.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.085 | ×0.820 | — | — | 12.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.243 | ×0.820 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 110, 2B 117, 3B 80, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .289 → .223; ISO .146 → .107; BABIP .278 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKGrand Junction Rockies · 143 PAwOBA .338 → .264 (−74)K% 17.5% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.48% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×1.008 | 6.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.40% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 28.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 2.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.008 | 1.54% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .338 → .264; ISO .073 → .054; BABIP .357 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .