Dermis Ordonez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Dermis Ordonez P DSL Pirates Black

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%22.7%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Black	13	4	24	111	15	29	0	31%	1.8	9.2%	32.7%	-23.5%	0.0%	5.25	6.46	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Black	13	4	24	111	15	29	0	31%	1.8	13.5%	26.1%	-12.6%	0.0%	5.25	5.47	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	16	3	29	140	31	24	0	19%	1.8	15.1%	21.4%	-6.4%	0.0%	7.22	4.54	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	16	3	29	140	31	24	0	19%	1.8	15.1%	21.4%	-6.4%	0.0%	7.22	4.54	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	16	3	29	140	31	24	0	19%	1.8	22.1%	17.1%	5.0%	0.0%	7.22	3.45	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	7	0	7	43	7	11	0	0%	1.0	16.3%	25.6%	-9.3%	0.0%	9.00	4.97	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	7	0	7	43	7	11	0	0%	1.0	16.3%	25.6%	-9.3%	0.0%	9.00	4.97	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	7	0	7	43	7	11	0	0%	1.0	16.3%	25.6%	-9.3%	0.0%	9.00	5.81	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	7	0	8	47	13	13	0	0%	1.1	27.7%	27.7%	0.0%	0.0%	4.50	4.27	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	7	0	8	47	13	13	0	0%	1.1	27.7%	27.7%	0.0%	0.0%	4.50	4.27	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	7	0	8	47	13	13	0	0%	1.1	27.7%	27.7%	0.0%	0.0%	4.50	4.72	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.7%	13.2%	9.5%	3.0%	4.87	4.87	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	PIT	19	0	20	84	20	10	2	0%	1.1	23.7%	11.6%	12.0%	2.9%	4.66	4.56	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	PIT	10	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	11.6%	12.0%	2.9%	4.66	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.1	23.7%	11.6%	12.0%	2.9%	4.66	4.18	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	102	20	0%	1.1	23.7%	11.6%	12.0%	2.9%	4.66	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		43	7	68	341	51	90	0	16%	1.6	15.0%	26.5%	-11.4%	0.0%	6.38	5.18	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	21	200	1008	152	267	0	16%	1.6	15.0%	26.5%	-11.4%	0.0%	6.38	5.18	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dermis Ordonez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	22.7%	13.2%	3.0%	—	4.56	23.7%	12.0%	20	-0.31	—	—	—
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	411	87
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	86
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	85
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	85
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	290	84
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	84
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	84
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	84
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	84
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	83
Reiss Knehr R 2018 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	21.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.267	4.86	18.8%	7.2%	171	+0.57	3.36	398	83
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	83
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	83
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	83
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	82
Cam Bedrosian R 2014 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	21.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.350	2.72	26.8%	17.8%	154	-1.22	1.79	363	82
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	82