Reiss Knehr
P
Nashville Sounds
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 58 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.71
FIP4.78
K%22.5%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3093.1
Whiff%
p1014.0%
K%
p1416.9%
xwOBA vs
p340.331
FB-6.2
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 1 | 35 | 149 | 45 | 15 | 3 | 5% | 1.7 | 21.3% | 12.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 3.38 | 4.24 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 1 | 35 | 149 | 45 | 15 | 3 | 5% | 1.7 | 30.2% | 10.1% | 20.1% | 2.0% | 3.38 | 2.93 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 17 | 12 | 66 | 298 | 83 | 28 | 11 | 71% | 3.9 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 5.8% | 5.43 | 5.83 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 17 | 12 | 66 | 298 | 83 | 28 | 11 | 71% | 3.9 | 27.9% | 9.4% | 18.5% | 3.7% | 5.43 | 4.02 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 21 | 105 | 436 | 86 | 50 | 9 | 68% | 3.4 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 21 | 105 | 436 | 86 | 50 | 9 | 68% | 3.4 | 19.7% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | 3.96 | 4.01 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 16 | 101 | 462 | 102 | 58 | 19 | 43% | 2.7 | 19.7% | 13.1% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 6.48 | 5.07 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 16 | 101 | 462 | 102 | 58 | 19 | 43% | 2.7 | 22.1% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 6.48 | 5.24 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 2 | 42 | 182 | 45 | 16 | 8 | 9% | 1.9 | 24.1% | 7.7% | 16.4% | 3.3% | 5.53 | 3.87 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 2 | 42 | 182 | 45 | 16 | 8 | 9% | 1.9 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 15.9% | 4.4% | 5.53 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 18 | 0 | 17 | 65 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 32.5% | 9.7% | 22.8% | 3.5% | 2.70 | 3.51 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 18 | 0 | 17 | 65 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 36.9% | 9.2% | 27.7% | 3.1% | 2.70 | 2.86 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 28 | 0 | 35 | 141 | 38 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.7% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 1.6% | 2.60 | 3.37 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | MIL | 56 | 0 | 58 | 246 | 55 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.78 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | MIL | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 93 | 387 | 93 | 43 | 10 | — | — | 24.1% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 2.5% | 3.92 | 4.25 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 22.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 51 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 46 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.99 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 41 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.94 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 25 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.99 | 5.13 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 28 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 5.34 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 103 | 7 | 134 | 584 | 111 | 71 | 19 | 7% | 1.3 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 5.35 | 4.81 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 10 | 200 | 868 | 165 | 106 | 28 | 7% | 1.3 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 5.35 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 173 | 52 | 401 | 1733 | 360 | 200 | 59 | 30% | 2.3 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.69 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 86 | 26 | 200 | 865 | 180 | 100 | 30 | 30% | 2.3 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Reiss Knehr (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.78 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 3.2% | — | 5.13 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 153 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 76 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 76 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 76 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 75 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 75 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 73 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 73 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.42 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 4.0% | .328 | 4.58 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 136 | +0.16 | 2.32 | 676 | 73 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.18 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.93 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 748 | 73 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 72 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 72 |
| Mike Adams R 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 71 |
| Blake Smith R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 71 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 71 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 71 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 71 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 71 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.01 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 264 | 71 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 70 |
| Brandon Workman R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.59 | 23.6% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .253 | 3.15 | 29.9% | 16.3% | 119 | -0.44 | 2.04 | 269 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 1.33 | 4.91 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |