Reiss Knehr — OGILVIE

Reiss Knehr P Nashville Sounds

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.70

FIP4.77

K%22.1%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p1014.0%

p1416.9%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

FB-6.2

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	1	35	149	45	15	3	5%	1.7	21.3%	12.3%	9.1%	2.6%	3.38	4.29	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	1	35	149	45	15	3	5%	1.7	30.2%	10.1%	20.1%	2.0%	3.38	2.93	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	17	12	66	298	83	28	11	71%	3.9	21.4%	10.8%	10.6%	5.1%	5.43	5.47	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	17	12	66	298	83	28	11	71%	3.9	27.9%	9.4%	18.5%	3.7%	5.43	4.02	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	21	105	436	86	50	9	68%	3.4	17.2%	12.1%	5.1%	2.4%	3.96	4.48	+0.5
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	21	105	436	86	50	9	68%	3.4	19.7%	11.5%	8.3%	2.1%	3.96	4.01	+1.1
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	16	101	462	102	58	19	43%	2.7	19.7%	13.1%	6.5%	4.0%	6.48	5.29	-0.9
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	16	101	462	102	58	19	43%	2.7	22.1%	12.6%	9.5%	4.1%	6.48	5.24	-0.8
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	2	42	182	45	16	8	9%	1.9	22.7%	6.6%	16.1%	3.5%	5.53	3.93	+0.3
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	2	42	182	45	16	8	9%	1.9	22.7%	6.6%	16.1%	3.5%	5.53	3.93	+0.3
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	2	42	182	45	16	8	9%	1.9	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	4.4%	5.53	4.56	-0.0
2025	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	18	0	17	65	24	6	2	0%	0.9	30.6%	8.3%	22.3%	3.4%	2.70	3.46	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	18	0	17	65	24	6	2	0%	0.9	30.6%	8.3%	22.3%	3.4%	2.70	3.46	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	18	0	17	65	24	6	2	0%	0.9	36.9%	9.2%	27.7%	3.1%	2.70	2.86	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	7	48	220	34	28	6	33%	2.3	15.5%	12.7%	2.7%	2.7%	5.96	5.04	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	32	0	38	158	40	16	3	0%	1.2	21.0%	9.1%	11.9%	2.1%	3.08	3.63	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	32	0	38	158	40	16	3	0%	1.2	21.0%	9.1%	11.9%	2.1%	3.08	3.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	MIL	32	0	38	158	40	16	3	0%	1.2	25.3%	10.1%	15.2%	1.9%	3.08	3.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	MIL	52	0	55	231	50	26	8	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.2%	10.3%	3.4%	4.82	4.93	-0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	MIL	49	0	51	216	45	25	8	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.4%	9.5%	3.6%	4.98	5.11	-0.3
2027	30	MLB CTX	MIL	19	0	20	84	18	9	3	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.2%	10.3%	3.4%	4.82	4.93	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	MIL	27	0	28	118	25	14	4	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.4%	9.5%	3.6%	4.98	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	7	97	424	77	51	13	10%	1.4	18.2%	12.1%	6.1%	3.1%	5.44	4.78	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		139	14	200	877	159	106	27	10%	1.4	18.2%	12.1%	6.1%	3.1%	5.44	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		177	52	404	1750	356	196	60	29%	2.3	20.3%	11.2%	9.2%	3.4%	4.81	4.67	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	26	200	866	176	97	30	29%	2.3	20.3%	11.2%	9.2%	3.4%	4.81	4.67	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Reiss Knehr (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	22.1%	11.1%	3.2%	—	5.02	21.2%	9.9%	106	+0.25	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	78
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	76
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	76
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	76
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	279	76
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	74
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	74
Michael Mariot R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	21.8%	7.5%	4.4%	.328	4.65	17.7%	9.5%	136	+0.03	2.40	676	73
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	73
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	72
Pedro Beato R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	29	SU	4.20	19.2%	8.5%	3.0%	.275	3.72	18.5%	11.1%	152	-0.48	3.47	295	72
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	72
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	72
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	72
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	72
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.79 FIP	27	SU	4.79	22.6%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.21	3.73	223	72
Brandon Workman R 2018 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	23.6%	7.5%	3.0%	.253	3.15	29.9%	16.3%	119	-0.57	2.04	269	71
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	71
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	21.5%	11.2%	1.30	4.83
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33