Sandy Mejia

P FCL Astros

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	MIX2 levels	13	2	30	3.03	1.89	37.3%	11.0%	—	K 25.7% · BB 11.3% · FIP 2.86
2024	20	AHOU	20	13	70	5.50	4.07	29.0%	15.6%	—	K 21.4% · BB 18.4% · FIP 5.21
2026	22	ROKHOU	2	0	2	9.00	4.60	27.3%	27.3%	—	K 27.3% · BB 27.3% · FIP 4.25
2027PROJ	23	MLBHOU	47	0	49	4.98	4.98	22.8%	14.1%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBHOU	21	0	22	4.79	4.71	23.4%	12.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBHOU	32	0	34	4.62	4.54	23.8%	11.4%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Patrick Halligan (age 23) · Noah Skirrow (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%22.8%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	12	7	41	181	44	29	2	58%	3.4	16.5%	20.0%	-3.5%	1.6%	4.20	5.10	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Blue	12	7	41	181	44	29	2	58%	3.4	24.3%	16.0%	8.3%	1.1%	4.20	3.71	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	2	30	118	44	13	1	15%	2.3	25.7%	11.3%	14.5%	0.9%	3.03	2.86	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	2	30	118	44	13	1	15%	2.3	37.3%	11.0%	26.3%	0.8%	3.03	1.89	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	20	13	70	321	93	50	8	65%	3.5	21.4%	18.4%	3.1%	2.9%	5.50	5.21	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	20	13	70	321	93	50	8	65%	3.5	21.4%	18.4%	3.1%	2.9%	5.50	5.21	—
2024	20	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	20	13	70	321	93	50	8	65%	3.5	29.0%	15.6%	13.4%	2.5%	5.50	4.07	—
2026	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	2	0	2	11	3	3	0	0%	1.0	27.3%	27.3%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	4.25	—
2026	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	2	0	2	11	3	3	0	0%	1.0	27.3%	27.3%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	4.25	—
2026	22	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	2	0	2	11	3	3	0	0%	1.0	27.3%	27.3%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	4.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	47	0	49	207	47	29	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	14.1%	8.8%	3.0%	4.98	4.98	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	48	0	50	213	50	26	6	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.4%	11.0%	3.0%	4.79	4.71	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	49	0	51	215	51	25	6	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.4%	12.4%	3.0%	4.62	4.54	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	49	0	51	215	52	24	6	0%	1.0	24.0%	11.2%	12.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.50	+0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	48	0	50	212	51	24	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.3%	12.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	21	0	22	93	22	12	3	0%	1.0	23.4%	12.4%	11.0%	3.0%	4.79	4.71	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	32	0	34	144	34	16	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.4%	12.4%	3.0%	4.62	4.54	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	38	0	40	169	40	19	5	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.2%	12.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.50	+0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	41	0	43	182	43	20	5	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.3%	12.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	0	139	585	139	67	17	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.60	4.17	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	97	25	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.5%	12.4%	3.0%	4.60	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		47	22	143	631	132	112	13	47%	3.0	20.9%	17.7%	3.3%	2.1%	4.67	4.72	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	31	200	885	185	156	19	47%	3.0	20.9%	17.7%	3.3%	2.1%	4.67	4.72	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sandy Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	22.8%	14.1%	3.0%	—	4.58	23.7%	12.0%	152	-0.40	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	86
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	83
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	81
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	81
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	80
Austin Vernon R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	26.6%	14.9%	3.0%	.234	4.62	22.7%	7.9%	182	+0.24	3.37	261	80
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	80
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	80
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	80
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	79
Robinson Tejeda R 2005 · 3.81 FIP	23	SP-	3.81	19.4%	12.7%	1.4%	.251	4.96	16.1%	4.4%	214	+1.15	3.40	435	79
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	79
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	78
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	78
Corey Black R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	23	SW	4.19	22.1%	13.9%	2.2%	.310	3.56	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.56	139	78
Austin Bergner R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	24	SW	4.99	24.0%	10.9%	4.6%	.277	4.87	21.6%	10.0%	274	-0.12	4.06	464	78
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.37	21.6%	11.0%	274	-0.92	3.36	374	77
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	77
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	50	23.6%	12.1%	1.15	4.69
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43