Sandy Mejia
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
+0.3
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2029
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%12.2%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL HOU Blue | 12 | 7 | 41 | 181 | 44 | 29 | 2 | 16.5% | 20.0% | 1.6% | 4.20 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 13 | 2 | 30 | 118 | 44 | 13 | 1 | 25.7% | 11.3% | 0.8% | 3.03 | 2.79 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 20 | 13 | 70 | 321 | 93 | 50 | 8 | 21.4% | 18.4% | 2.9% | 5.50 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | HOU | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 58 | 28 | 8 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 63 | 26 | 8 | 23.8% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 66 | 26 | 8 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.22 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 67 | 25 | 8 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.15 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 68 | 25 | 8 | 24.9% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.13 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 67 | 25 | 8 | 24.9% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.14 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 66 | 25 | 8 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.17 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 64 | 24 | 8 | 24.7% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 62 | 24 | 8 | 24.5% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 59 | 23 | 8 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 56 | — | 56 | 234 | 56 | 23 | 8 | 24.0% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 53 | 22 | 7 | 23.7% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 50 | 21 | 7 | 23.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 45 | 22 | 141 | 620 | 129 | 109 | 13 | 20.8% | 17.5% | 2.1% | 4.61 | 4.73 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 31 | 200 | 882 | 183 | 155 | 18 | 20.8% | 17.5% | 2.1% | 4.61 | 4.73 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sandy Mejia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.24 | 24.3% | 14.8% | 191 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 95 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.38 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .292 | 5.40 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.02 | 4.38 | 355 | 94 |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 93 |
| Aaron Holiday R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.81 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .310 | 5.20 | 19.7% | -3.3% | 59 | +0.39 | 4.72 | 116 | 92 |
| Brendan Collins R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 92 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.24 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 181 | 91 |
| Chay Yeager R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.18 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .237 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 110 | 90 |
| William Kempner R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .277 | 3.24 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 68 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 129 | 90 |
| Alex Cook R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.03 | 26.1% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .266 | 3.34 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 53 | -0.69 | 2.94 | 119 | 90 |
| Shane Broyles R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.95 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .338 | 3.75 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.20 | 3.30 | 218 | 90 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 167 | -0.40 | 3.06 | 230 | 89 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.64 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.65 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +1.01 | 3.64 | 429 | 89 |
| Alex Klonowski R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.58 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 2.1% | .331 | 4.70 | 14.3% | 7.1% | 413 | +1.12 | 3.58 | 539 | 89 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 89 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.24 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 167 | +0.65 | 2.57 | 304 | 89 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.19 | 4.24 | 225 | 88 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.03 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .329 | 3.52 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.51 | 2.48 | 281 | 88 |
| Matt Frawley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.39 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 139 | 88 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 88 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 3.40 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.57 | 2.58 | 408 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $13M | +$8M | ||