Enmanuel Pinales
P
San Antonio Missions
+0.2
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.8 · 2028
ERA4.87
FIP4.87
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.5%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%9.1%
IP108
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | DSL Padres | 11 | 4 | 36 | 175 | 32 | 17 | 6 | 12.4% | 12.1% | 5.0% | 7.75 | 6.33 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 15 | 9 | 60 | 258 | 63 | 19 | 6 | 17.5% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.48 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 22 | 21 | 111 | 460 | 101 | 43 | 14 | 16.9% | 10.7% | 4.1% | 3.49 | 5.26 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 25 | 20 | 114 | 484 | 108 | 48 | 11 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.60 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 89 | 47 | 14 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 4.87 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 98 | 49 | 15 | 20.2% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 118 | 497 | 101 | 49 | 16 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 118 | 497 | 101 | 49 | 16 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 99 | 48 | 15 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 112 | 471 | 95 | 47 | 15 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 108 | 455 | 90 | 46 | 15 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.86 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 85 | 45 | 15 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 80 | 44 | 15 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 5.03 | 5.09 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 75 | 42 | 14 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 5.13 | 5.20 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 69 | 41 | 14 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 5.25 | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 63 | 39 | 13 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 5.38 | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 54 | 321 | 1377 | 231 | 147 | 51 | 16.8% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.49 | 5.06 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 34 | 200 | 858 | 144 | 92 | 32 | 16.8% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.49 | 5.06 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Enmanuel Pinales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.87 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.75 | 20.3% | 10.3% | 350 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 93 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 93 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 89 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.93 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.6% | .286 | 5.22 | 16.8% | 4.4% | 61 | +0.29 | 4.24 | 367 | 89 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 88 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .284 | 3.50 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 84 | -1.40 | 3.50 | 368 | 88 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 88 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.02 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .319 | 4.03 | 23.9% | 13.7% | 166 | -0.99 | 3.98 | 481 | 87 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 87 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 87 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 86 |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | .285 | 4.26 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -1.07 | 4.07 | 530 | 86 |
| Chase Solesky R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.96 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .322 | 4.60 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 205 | -0.36 | 4.07 | 501 | 86 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 6.22 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 12 | +0.84 | 4.02 | 262 | 86 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 85 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.76 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.47 | 3.22 | 907 | 85 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.12 | 14.4% | 3.5% | 146 | +0.66 | 3.37 | 353 | 85 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 85 |
| Jackson Wentworth R 2023 · 4.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.95 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.95 | 124 | 84 |
| Trent Sellers R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.5 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.4 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.2 | $1M | -$6M |
| Totals | $11M | $15M | +$4M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.