Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | DSL Padres | 11 | 4 | 36 | 175 | 32 | 17 | 6 | 36% | 3.3 | 12.4% | 12.1% | 0.3% | 5.0% | 7.75 | 6.36 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | DSL Padres | 11 | 4 | 36 | 175 | 32 | 17 | 6 | 36% | 3.3 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 7.75 | 4.91 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 9 | 60 | 258 | 63 | 19 | 6 | 60% | 4.0 | 17.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.64 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 9 | 60 | 258 | 63 | 19 | 6 | 60% | 4.0 | 24.4% | 7.4% | 17.1% | 2.3% | 4.48 | 3.25 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 22 | 21 | 111 | 460 | 101 | 43 | 14 | 95% | 5.0 | 16.9% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.49 | 5.54 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 22 | 21 | 111 | 460 | 101 | 43 | 14 | 95% | 5.0 | 22.0% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 3.49 | 4.08 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 114 | 484 | 108 | 48 | 11 | 80% | 4.5 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.66 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 20 | 114 | 484 | 108 | 48 | 11 | 80% | 4.5 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 2.3% | 4.43 | 3.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 75 | 318 | 52 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.4% | 12.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.38 | 5.38 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 75 | 318 | 56 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.5% | 11.6% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 5.25 | 5.24 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 74 | 313 | 56 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.9% | 11.5% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 5.19 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 55 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 11.6% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 5.21 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 24 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.5% | 11.6% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 5.25 | 5.24 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 36 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.9% | 11.5% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 5.19 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 41 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 11.6% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 5.21 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 22 | 134 | 568 | 101 | 66 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 5.21 | 4.85 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 150 | 98 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 5.21 | 4.85 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 73 | 54 | 321 | 1377 | 231 | 147 | 53 | 74% | 4.4 | 16.8% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 4.49 | 5.17 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 34 | 200 | 858 | 144 | 91 | 33 | 74% | 4.4 | 16.8% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 4.49 | 5.17 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Enmanuel Pinales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.38 | 16.4% | 12.0% | 3.2% | — | 5.23 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 222 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 88 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 88 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 85 |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 84 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .303 | 4.01 | 16.6% | 4.2% | 20 | -0.61 | 4.01 | 214 | 83 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 82 |
| Allen Webster R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 80 |
| Drew Gagnon R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.6% | 12.6% | 3.8% | .313 | 4.01 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 311 | -1.77 | 3.74 | 534 | 79 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 3.7% | .319 | 4.17 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 196 | -0.99 | 4.00 | 512 | 79 |
| Elliot Morris R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 102 | 79 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2028 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 79 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 79 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 78 |
| Braden Olthoff R 2024 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.57 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 108 | 78 |
| Casey Steward R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 191 | 78 |
| Trenton Toplikar R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.46 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.7% | .325 | 6.04 | 16.9% | 4.2% | 30 | +0.58 | 4.30 | 232 | 78 |
| Matt Ager R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 78 |
| Forrest Snow R 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 78 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.79 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.16 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 108 | +0.37 | 4.09 | 414 | 78 |
| Matt Solter R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.60 | 16.0% | 11.0% | 2.7% | .309 | 3.94 | 16.9% | 4.3% | 66 | -0.66 | 3.94 | 224 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 74 | 17.4% | 11.7% | 1.25 | 5.26 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |