Nelfri Payano — OGILVIE

Nelfri Payano P ACL Reds

Age 22 RHP 5'10" / 179 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 8 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 129

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%20.4%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	0	18	85	21	11	1	0%	1.4	16.8%	16.2%	0.6%	1.8%	6.62	4.70	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	13	0	18	85	21	11	1	0%	1.4	24.7%	12.9%	11.8%	1.2%	6.62	3.33	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	0	19	85	25	8	0	0%	1.3	20.0%	11.8%	8.2%	0.0%	4.82	2.90	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	0	19	85	25	8	0	0%	1.3	29.4%	9.4%	20.0%	0.0%	4.82	1.71	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	0	14	72	18	16	0	0%	1.1	17.0%	27.8%	-10.8%	0.0%	9.22	5.18	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	0	14	72	18	16	0	0%	1.1	17.0%	27.8%	-10.8%	0.0%	9.22	5.18	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	12	0	14	72	18	16	0	0%	1.1	25.0%	22.2%	2.8%	0.0%	9.22	3.98	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	15	102	18	32	2	0%	1.0	9.1%	40.0%	-30.9%	0.0%	18.20	7.40	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	15	102	18	32	2	0%	1.0	9.1%	40.0%	-30.9%	0.0%	18.20	7.40	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	15	102	18	32	2	0%	1.0	17.6%	31.4%	-13.7%	2.0%	18.20	8.71	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	23	127	27	26	3	0%	1.3	17.0%	20.8%	-3.8%	3.3%	9.78	6.13	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	23	127	27	26	3	0%	1.3	17.0%	20.8%	-3.8%	3.3%	9.78	6.13	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	23	127	27	26	3	0%	1.3	21.3%	20.5%	0.8%	2.4%	9.78	5.84	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CIN	8	0	8	34	7	7	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	20.0%	0.4%	3.0%	5.92	5.92	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CIN	20	0	22	91	19	15	3	0%	1.1	21.5%	16.7%	4.7%	2.9%	5.54	5.39	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	CIN	10	0	11	46	10	8	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	16.7%	4.7%	2.9%	5.54	5.39	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	45	10	7	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	16.7%	4.7%	2.9%	5.54	5.01	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	132	19	0%	1.1	21.5%	16.7%	4.7%	2.9%	5.54	5.01	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		73	0	88	471	74	111	6	0%	1.2	15.8%	23.6%	-7.8%	1.2%	9.48	5.42	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	0	200	1066	168	251	13	0%	1.2	15.8%	23.6%	-7.8%	1.2%	9.48	5.42	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nelfri Payano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.92	20.4%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.39	21.5%	4.7%	22	-0.53	—	—	—
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	91
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	90
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	90
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	89
Carlos Contreras R 2014 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	20.2%	18.1%	2.0%	.304	4.35	18.4%	5.0%	107	-0.42	4.29	127	89
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	88
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	88
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	88
Saul Teran R 2024 · 5.21 FIP	22	SU	5.21	22.4%	18.8%	2.9%	.279	4.40	20.1%	10.7%	84	-0.81	2.28	166	88
Greg Weissert R 2016 · 5.22 FIP	21	SU	5.22	19.4%	19.3%	2.4%	.382	3.80	23.0%	10.3%	126	-1.42	2.57	487	85
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	85
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	85
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	85
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	85
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	84
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	84
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	84
Jairo Beras R 2017 · 6.07 FIP	22	SU	6.07	16.4%	16.9%	4.0%	.237	4.35	20.7%	4.5%	96	-1.72	3.48	110	84
Miguel Alfonseca R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	20.1%	16.4%	2.4%	.354	5.73	11.6%	-3.8%	56	+0.95	4.19	123	84
Jace Beck R 2022 · 6.24 FIP	22	SU	6.24	19.2%	23.6%	3.2%	.205	4.33	27.6%	8.3%	76	-1.91	4.03	216	84