Nelfri Payano
P
ACL Reds
Age 21
RHP
5'10" / 179 lbs
ROK
2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 104
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
K%22.6%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.4%
ROS IP8
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Reds | 13 | 0 | 18 | 85 | 21 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.8% | 16.2% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 6.62 | 4.78 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Reds | 13 | 0 | 18 | 85 | 21 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.7% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 1.2% | 6.62 | 3.33 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 14 | 0 | 19 | 85 | 25 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.0% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 4.82 | 2.90 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 14 | 0 | 19 | 85 | 25 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.4% | 9.4% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 4.82 | 1.71 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | 12 | 0 | 14 | 72 | 18 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.0% | 27.8% | -10.8% | 0.0% | 9.22 | 5.18 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | 12 | 0 | 14 | 72 | 18 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 22.2% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 9.22 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 15 | 102 | 18 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 9.1% | 40.0% | -30.9% | 0.0% | 18.20 | 7.40 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 15 | 102 | 18 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 31.4% | -13.7% | 2.0% | 18.20 | 8.71 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 17 | 0 | 21 | 118 | 24 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.0% | 20.8% | -3.8% | 3.3% | 10.29 | 6.13 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.6% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.58 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 28 | 150 | 31 | 30 | 4 | — | — | 20.8% | 19.7% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 8.78 | 5.72 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 3.96 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 86 | 462 | 73 | 109 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 15.8% | 23.6% | -7.9% | 1.2% | 9.59 | 5.42 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 0 | 200 | 1070 | 169 | 253 | 13 | 0% | 1.2 | 15.8% | 23.6% | -7.9% | 1.2% | 9.59 | 5.42 | -0.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nelfri Payano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 22.6% | 11.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.34 | 23.5% | 13.4% | 20 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Caleb Freeman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.17 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.19 | 3.98 | 222 | 90 |
| Mason Fox R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 7.31 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.72 | 3.59 | 112 | 88 |
| Nic Enright R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .263 | 3.12 | 29.6% | 23.5% | 124 | -0.51 | 0.50 | 249 | 87 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.94 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 146 | 87 |
| Peyton Williams R 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 86 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 86 |
| Luis Alvarado R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.24 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .276 | 5.27 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 140 | +0.03 | 5.04 | 162 | 86 |
| Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.98 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.11 | 3.00 | 318 | 86 |
| Ty Tice R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.29 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .271 | 3.48 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 108 | -0.81 | 3.24 | 288 | 86 |
| Justin Meis R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.80 | 25.6% | 13.6% | 2.1% | .300 | 5.11 | 18.2% | 5.5% | 261 | +1.31 | 3.80 | 385 | 86 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.9% | .330 | 4.23 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.34 | 3.09 | 195 | 85 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.65 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.15 | 3.00 | 144 | 85 |
| Nolan Sparks R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.06 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 2.0% | .229 | 4.87 | 18.0% | 3.7% | 120 | +0.81 | 4.06 | 136 | 85 |
| Cole Gordon R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 84 |
| Alexis Liebano R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.05 | 22.3% | 12.6% | 4.1% | .330 | 6.24 | 15.6% | 1.1% | 77 | +1.19 | 4.80 | 142 | 84 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 84 |
| Max Gieg R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.43 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 4.8% | .317 | 4.70 | 20.4% | 2.3% | 92 | -0.73 | 4.10 | 146 | 84 |
| Jacob Bodner R 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.40 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .281 | 3.50 | 22.1% | 12.4% | 98 | +0.10 | 3.16 | 124 | 84 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2029 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 84 |
| Andrew Bash R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.87 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 2.1% | .273 | 4.28 | 14.9% | 4.8% | 146 | +0.41 | 3.64 | 500 | 84 |