Fernando Perez

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2030

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #856MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP45ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ATOR	17	17	82	4.06	2.83	25.8%	7.2%	—	K 19.1% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.84
2025	21	MIX2 levels	26	26	121	3.04	2.81	20.9%	5.6%	—	K 16.2% · BB 6.3% · FIP 3.63
2026	22	AATOR	7	5	20	7.20	6.55	15.8%	24.8%	—	K 12.8% · BB 27.2% · FIP 6.77
2027PROJ	23	MLBTOR	10	10	52	5.01	5.01	14.9%	10.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBTOR	9	9	49	4.82	4.74	16.8%	9.3%	0.1
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBTOR	13	13	76	4.67	4.59	17.8%	8.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control70Command55FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsCade Kuehler (age 22) · Chris Kachmar (age 24) · Bradley Brehmer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%14.9%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%4.8%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL—70

CMD5055

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	12	12	44	193	48	5	4	100%	3.6	16.9%	3.2%	13.7%	2.6%	4.53	3.49	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	12	12	44	193	48	5	4	100%	3.6	24.9%	2.6%	22.3%	2.1%	4.53	2.44	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	10	50	195	57	12	1	91%	4.5	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	0.7%	2.72	2.79	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	11	10	50	195	57	12	1	91%	4.5	29.2%	6.2%	23.1%	0.5%	2.72	1.79	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	17	17	82	333	86	24	6	100%	4.8	19.1%	8.5%	10.6%	2.3%	4.06	3.84	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	17	17	82	333	86	24	6	100%	4.8	19.1%	8.5%	10.6%	2.3%	4.06	3.84	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	17	17	82	333	86	24	6	100%	4.8	25.8%	7.2%	18.6%	1.8%	4.06	2.83	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	121	503	105	28	7	100%	4.7	16.2%	6.3%	9.9%	2.0%	3.04	3.63	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	121	503	105	28	7	100%	4.7	16.2%	6.3%	9.9%	2.0%	3.04	3.63	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	121	503	105	28	7	100%	4.7	20.9%	5.6%	15.3%	1.4%	3.04	2.81	—
2026	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	7	5	20	101	16	25	2	71%	2.9	12.8%	27.2%	-14.4%	2.4%	7.20	6.77	—
2026	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	7	5	20	101	16	25	2	71%	2.9	12.8%	27.2%	-14.4%	2.4%	7.20	6.77	—
2026	22	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	7	5	20	101	16	25	2	71%	2.9	15.8%	24.8%	-8.9%	2.0%	7.20	6.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TOR	10	10	52	220	33	22	6	100%	5.2	14.9%	10.1%	4.8%	2.7%	5.01	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	112	472	79	44	13	100%	5.6	16.8%	9.3%	7.5%	2.7%	4.82	4.74	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	113	478	85	42	13	100%	6.0	17.8%	8.8%	9.1%	2.7%	4.67	4.59	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	113	478	88	41	13	100%	6.0	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	2.8%	4.59	4.54	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	112	471	87	41	13	100%	5.9	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	2.8%	4.58	4.57	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	108	457	84	41	13	100%	6.0	18.3%	8.9%	9.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.66	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	103	437	79	40	13	100%	6.1	18.1%	9.1%	9.0%	3.1%	4.72	4.79	+0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	97	410	73	39	13	100%	6.1	17.7%	9.4%	8.3%	3.3%	4.87	4.97	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	49	207	35	19	6	100%	5.4	16.8%	9.3%	7.5%	2.7%	4.82	4.74	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	76	321	57	28	9	100%	5.8	17.8%	8.8%	9.1%	2.7%	4.67	4.59	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	90	380	70	33	10	100%	6.0	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	2.8%	4.59	4.54	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	95	401	74	35	11	100%	5.9	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	2.8%	4.58	4.57	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	96	405	74	36	12	100%	6.0	18.3%	8.9%	9.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.66	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	94	397	72	36	12	100%	5.9	18.1%	9.1%	9.0%	3.1%	4.72	4.79	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	90	380	67	36	12	100%	6.0	17.7%	9.4%	8.3%	3.3%	4.87	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		99	99	590	2493	449	223	73	100%	6.0	18.0%	9.0%	9.1%	2.9%	4.69	4.31	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	152	76	25	100%	5.9	18.0%	9.0%	9.1%	2.9%	4.69	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		73	70	317	1325	230	109	27	96%	4.3	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.0%	3.72	3.78	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	44	200	837	145	69	17	96%	4.3	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.0%	3.72	3.78	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fernando Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	14.9%	10.1%	2.7%	—	4.62	17.6%	8.7%	338	-0.39	—	—	—
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	89
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	89
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	89
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	85
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	85
Michael Matuella R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	13.5%	8.2%	2.3%	.342	4.66	16.5%	3.4%	94	+0.38	3.60	169	85
Spencer Schwellenbach R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	14.5%	8.5%	1.9%	.273	3.09	24.5%	19.9%	266	-0.91	3.05	318	85
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	84
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.05	17.5%	10.6%	280	-0.88	3.90	299	84
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	84
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	84
Charlie Morton R 2008 · 4.79 FIP	24	SP	4.79	13.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.285	3.97	14.7%	6.0%	348	-0.82	2.52	2,281	83
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	83
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	83
Darren Bowen R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	16.7%	9.1%	2.2%	.312	6.06	14.4%	2.5%	150	+1.98	3.82	278	83
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	83
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	83
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	83
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	83
Ricky Salinas R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	15.8%	10.5%	3.0%	.297	5.42	17.7%	5.1%	146	+0.65	4.77	274	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	101	17.7%	9.0%	1.11	4.71
Milt Shoffner ('29-'40, 1 WAR*)	2.9	82	16.0%*	8.8%*	1.11*	4.92*
Mike Mason ('82-'88, 4 WAR*)	3.0	121	19.2%*	9.3%*	1.10*	4.57*
Felix Doubront ('15)	2.6	103	19.5%	9.7%	1.10	4.89
Myles Thomas ('26-'30, -1 WAR*)	2.2	87	16.5%*	9.7%*	1.08*	4.91*
Ryan Vogelsong ('16)	5.9	108	17.3%	9.1%	0.98	4.48
Alan Benes ('03)	2.5	99	18.6%	10.2%	1.07	4.59