David Lorduy

P Dayton Dragons

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 198 lbs A+ peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	18	7	57	2.20	2.38	26.0%	5.4%	—	K 18.1% · BB 6.6% · FIP 3.38
2025	21	MIX2 levels	21	17	69	3.78	3.29	22.0%	8.8%	—	K 16.0% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.29
2026	22	MIX2 levels	20	8	68	6.06	5.03	25.3%	11.3%	—	K 18.2% · BB 13.8% · FIP 6.65
2027PROJ	23	MLBCIN	10	10	62	5.65	5.65	16.2%	12.9%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCIN	4	4	27	5.42	5.36	17.7%	11.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCIN	7	7	43	5.24	5.18	18.5%	11.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 97%

CompsNoah Skirrow (age 23) · Anyelo Gómez (age 23) · Houston Roth (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.65

FIP5.65

K%16.2%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%3.3%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	12	7	36	168	37	18	2	58%	3.0	15.0%	13.4%	1.6%	1.8%	4.04	4.51	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	12	7	36	168	37	18	2	58%	3.0	22.0%	10.7%	11.3%	1.2%	4.04	3.27	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	8	50	193	58	11	4	62%	3.8	20.4%	7.1%	13.3%	3.2%	3.60	4.01	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	13	8	50	193	58	11	4	62%	3.8	30.1%	5.7%	24.4%	2.1%	3.60	2.48	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	57	223	58	12	3	39%	3.2	18.1%	6.6%	11.5%	1.8%	2.20	3.38	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	57	223	58	12	3	39%	3.2	18.1%	6.6%	11.5%	1.8%	2.20	3.38	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	7	57	223	58	12	3	39%	3.2	26.0%	5.4%	20.6%	1.3%	2.20	2.38	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	69	295	65	26	5	81%	3.3	16.0%	10.2%	5.8%	2.3%	3.78	4.29	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	69	295	65	26	5	81%	3.3	16.0%	10.2%	5.8%	2.3%	3.78	4.29	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	17	69	295	65	26	5	81%	3.3	22.0%	8.8%	13.2%	1.7%	3.78	3.29	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	8	68	300	76	34	14	40%	3.4	18.2%	13.8%	4.4%	6.1%	6.06	6.65	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	8	68	300	76	34	14	40%	3.4	18.2%	13.8%	4.4%	6.1%	6.06	6.65	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	8	68	300	76	34	14	40%	3.4	25.3%	11.3%	14.0%	4.7%	6.06	5.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CIN	10	10	62	262	42	34	9	100%	6.2	16.2%	12.9%	3.3%	3.5%	5.65	5.65	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	64	269	48	32	9	100%	6.4	17.7%	11.9%	5.8%	3.4%	5.42	5.36	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	64	272	50	31	9	100%	6.5	18.5%	11.2%	7.2%	3.4%	5.24	5.18	-0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	64	272	52	30	9	100%	6.5	18.9%	11.1%	7.8%	3.3%	5.15	5.12	-0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	64	268	51	30	9	100%	6.3	19.0%	11.1%	7.9%	3.4%	5.13	5.14	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	27	114	20	14	4	100%	6.8	17.7%	11.9%	5.8%	3.4%	5.42	5.36	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	43	182	34	20	6	100%	6.1	18.5%	11.2%	7.2%	3.4%	5.24	5.18	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	51	215	41	24	7	100%	6.4	18.9%	11.1%	7.8%	3.3%	5.15	5.12	-0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	54	228	43	25	8	100%	6.0	19.0%	11.1%	7.9%	3.4%	5.13	5.14	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	28	176	741	138	84	25	100%	6.3	18.7%	11.3%	7.4%	3.4%	5.21	4.80	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	157	96	28	100%	6.3	18.7%	11.3%	7.4%	3.4%	5.21	4.80	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		84	47	280	1179	207	122	38	56%	3.3	17.5%	10.4%	7.1%	3.2%	4.01	4.70	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	34	200	841	147	87	27	56%	3.3	17.5%	10.4%	7.1%	3.2%	4.01	4.70	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Lorduy (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.65	16.2%	12.9%	3.5%	—	5.22	18.4%	7.0%	193	-0.43	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	89
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	88
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	85
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	85
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	85
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	84
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	84
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	83
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	83
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	83
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	82
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	81
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	81
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	81
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	81
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	81
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	81
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	81
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	81
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	64	18.1%	11.7%	1.31	5.32
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*