Lester Nin prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Lester Nin P FCL Marlins

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 101

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

K%22.8%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	8	7	36	130	40	6	2	88%	4.5	20.9%	5.8%	15.2%	2.1%	1.51	3.23	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	8	7	36	130	40	6	2	88%	4.5	30.8%	4.6%	26.2%	1.5%	1.51	2.09	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	9	1	19	85	16	8	2	11%	2.1	12.8%	11.8%	1.0%	3.3%	4.74	5.33	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	9	1	19	85	16	8	2	11%	2.1	12.8%	11.8%	1.0%	3.3%	4.74	5.33	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	9	1	19	85	16	8	2	11%	2.1	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	2.4%	4.74	4.05	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	9.8%	13.0%	3.0%	4.44	4.44	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	19	0	20	84	20	8	2	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.0%	4.34	4.27	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.0%	4.34	4.27	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.0%	4.34	3.89	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	3.0%	4.34	3.89	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		17	8	55	215	38	18	6	47%	3.2	17.7%	8.1%	9.6%	2.6%	2.63	4.06	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	29	200	787	139	64	20	47%	3.2	17.7%	8.1%	9.6%	2.6%	2.63	4.06	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lester Nin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	22.8%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.27	23.6%	14.4%	20	-0.17	—	—	—
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	85
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	83
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	82
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.10	24.4%	11.8%	56	+0.75	2.93	103	82
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	81
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	592	80
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	79
Liam Simon R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SW	3.27	26.6%	11.9%	1.6%	.362	5.97	19.7%	-6.0%	84	+2.70	3.27	105	79
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	78
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	78
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	78
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	77
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	77
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	76
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	76
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	76
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	76
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	76
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	76
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	76