Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 25 | 7 | 60 | 303 | 60 | 55 | 3 | 28% | 2.4 | 14.7% | 21.4% | -6.8% | 1.9% | 7.91 | 5.61 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 25 | 7 | 60 | 303 | 60 | 55 | 3 | 28% | 2.4 | 19.8% | 18.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 7.91 | 4.49 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 21 | 0 | 23 | 104 | 27 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 13.3% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 4.63 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 40 | 63 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.0% | 22.2% | -8.2% | 2.8% | 6.67 | 6.67 | -1.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.0% | 22.2% | -8.2% | 2.8% | 6.67 | 6.67 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 91 | 388 | 67 | 75 | 11 | — | — | 17.2% | 19.3% | -2.1% | 2.8% | 6.14 | 6.30 | -1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.0% | 22.2% | -8.2% | 2.8% | 6.67 | 6.29 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 45 | 56 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 19.3% | -3.5% | 2.8% | 6.26 | 6.15 | -1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 48 | 53 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 18.5% | -1.7% | 2.8% | 6.03 | 5.97 | -1.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 49 | 51 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 18.1% | -1.0% | 2.9% | 5.93 | 5.92 | -1.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 19 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 19.3% | -3.5% | 2.8% | 6.26 | 6.15 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 32 | 35 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 18.5% | -1.7% | 2.8% | 6.03 | 5.97 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 38 | 40 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 18.1% | -1.0% | 2.9% | 5.93 | 5.92 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 0 | 127 | 534 | 90 | 99 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.8% | 18.6% | -1.8% | 2.9% | 6.04 | 5.61 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 142 | 156 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 18.6% | -1.8% | 2.9% | 6.04 | 5.61 | -0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 46 | 7 | 84 | 407 | 65 | 79 | 10 | 15% | 1.8 | 16.1% | 19.3% | -3.3% | 2.4% | 6.99 | 5.52 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 110 | 17 | 200 | 973 | 157 | 188 | 23 | 15% | 1.8 | 16.1% | 19.3% | -3.3% | 2.4% | 6.99 | 5.52 | -0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Bauman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.67 | 14.0% | 22.2% | 2.8% | — | 6.01 | 16.6% | -2.0% | 203 | -0.66 | — | — | — |
| Graham Osman L 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.68 | 15.1% | 17.4% | 3.0% | .303 | 6.97 | 14.1% | -1.9% | 29 | +1.29 | 4.29 | 151 | 87 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.03 | 16.4% | 18.6% | 3.6% | .303 | 5.89 | 16.3% | -3.3% | 78 | -0.14 | 4.80 | 223 | 85 |
| Chris Nunn L 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.94 | 13.9% | 16.8% | 3.4% | .350 | 3.97 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 37 | -1.97 | 3.26 | 180 | 84 |
| Nicolo Pinazzi L 2025 · 6.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.69 | 19.3% | 26.9% | 3.3% | .307 | 2.70 | 28.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -3.99 | 2.70 | 122 | 79 |
| Trevor Seidenberger L 2026 · 6.50 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.50 | 13.1% | 14.9% | 4.8% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 101 | 78 |
| Seth Clark L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.52 | 18.9% | 16.2% | 3.6% | .267 | 4.51 | 17.7% | -2.7% | 32 | -1.01 | 4.30 | 128 | 77 |
| Steve Hajjar L 2025 · 6.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.73 | 15.0% | 25.6% | 3.0% | .150 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 141 | 75 |
| Max Schuh L 2026 · 6.46 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.46 | 16.1% | 17.9% | 4.5% | .389 | 4.29 | 19.2% | 5.6% | 48 | -2.17 | 3.10 | 118 | 75 |
| Garvin Alston L 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.49 | 14.4% | 15.5% | 3.0% | .328 | 4.14 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 160 | -1.35 | 4.01 | 232 | 75 |
| Jordan Minch L 2026 · 7.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 7.08 | 13.7% | 17.6% | 5.3% | .262 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 121 | -2.05 | 3.64 | 255 | 74 |
| Levi Prater L 2025 · 6.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.57 | 15.8% | 23.5% | 3.3% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 6.57 | 110 | 73 |
| Matt Minnick L 2025 · 5.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.59 | 17.2% | 14.1% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.65 | 23.5% | 12.1% | 105 | -0.94 | 3.77 | 147 | 73 |
| Bodi Rascon L 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.72 | 11.5% | 19.8% | 2.0% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.55 | 218 | 73 |
| Mason Miller L 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.05 | 12.8% | 18.6% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 150 | 72 |
| Dillon Larsen L 2026 · 6.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.31 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.57 | 18.0% | -4.1% | 91 | -1.74 | 4.04 | 120 | 71 |
| Cam Booser L 2026 · 6.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.73 | 19.8% | 28.0% | 3.2% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 290 | 71 |
| Ever Moya L 2025 · 6.30 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.30 | 10.9% | 18.4% | 3.2% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 170 | 71 |
| Caleb Frare L 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.53 | 22.6% | 21.3% | 3.0% | .307 | 3.04 | 28.0% | 15.6% | 80 | -2.49 | 2.26 | 237 | 71 |
| Dan Lietz L 2026 · 5.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.92 | 11.1% | 13.2% | 3.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 188 | 71 |
| Yoan Aybar L 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.94 | 19.2% | 16.2% | 4.4% | .323 | 5.64 | 20.9% | 1.2% | 41 | -0.30 | 3.41 | 166 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 16.0% | 19.6% | 1.11 | 6.22 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |