Todd Kniebbe — OGILVIE

Todd Kniebbe P Frederick Keys

Age 22 RHP 6'6" / 245 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

K%23.7%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	0	7	26	11	1	1	0%	1.7	42.3%	3.8%	38.5%	3.8%	2.70	2.13	—
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	0	7	26	11	1	1	0%	1.7	42.3%	3.8%	38.5%	3.8%	2.70	2.13	—
2025	21	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	0	7	26	11	1	1	0%	1.7	42.3%	3.8%	38.5%	3.8%	2.70	2.20	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	33	0	45	175	58	18	1	0%	1.4	25.1%	11.9%	13.1%	0.7%	2.18	2.89	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	33	0	45	175	58	18	1	0%	1.4	25.1%	11.9%	13.1%	0.7%	2.18	2.89	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	BAL	13	0	19	74	27	7	0	0%	1.4	36.5%	9.5%	27.0%	0.0%	2.41	1.22	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	BAL	20	0	27	101	31	11	1	0%	1.3	30.7%	10.9%	19.8%	1.0%	2.02	2.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BAL	44	0	46	195	47	19	6	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	2.9%	4.29	4.23	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	45	0	47	200	50	18	6	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.1%	15.8%	2.9%	4.19	4.12	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	BAL	46	0	48	202	51	18	6	0%	1.0	25.2%	8.9%	16.3%	2.9%	4.11	4.06	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	BAL	46	0	48	202	51	18	6	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.8%	16.5%	2.9%	4.07	4.04	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	BAL	45	0	47	199	50	18	6	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.9%	16.4%	2.9%	4.08	4.08	+0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	BAL	22	0	23	97	24	9	3	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	2.9%	4.29	4.23	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	31	0	33	139	35	13	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.1%	15.8%	2.9%	4.19	4.12	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	BAL	37	0	39	165	41	15	5	0%	1.1	25.2%	8.9%	16.3%	2.9%	4.11	4.06	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	BAL	40	0	42	177	45	16	5	0%	1.1	25.3%	8.8%	16.5%	2.9%	4.07	4.04	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	BAL	41	0	43	182	46	16	5	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.9%	16.4%	2.9%	4.08	4.08	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		171	0	179	757	190	68	22	0%	1.0	25.1%	9.0%	16.1%	2.9%	4.13	3.71	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	212	76	25	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.0%	16.1%	2.9%	4.13	3.71	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		37	0	52	201	55	22	2	0%	1.4	27.3%	10.9%	16.4%	1.1%	2.25	2.79	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	0	200	773	211	84	9	0%	1.4	27.3%	10.9%	16.4%	1.1%	2.25	2.79	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Todd Kniebbe (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	23.7%	10.2%	3.0%	—	4.14	24.8%	15.7%	141	-0.26	—	—	—
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	91
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	91
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	90
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	90
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	89
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	89
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	89
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	88
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	87
Justin Yeager R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.96	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.37	3.32	262	87
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	87
Jacob Rhame R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	22	SU	3.98	23.0%	9.9%	2.9%	.240	3.61	24.4%	17.8%	182	-0.37	2.78	251	87
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	87
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	87
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.56	249	87
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	87
Jacob Wallace R 2021 · 4.26 FIP	22	SU	4.26	26.6%	13.1%	3.2%	.316	4.77	23.8%	7.0%	167	+0.51	3.50	279	87
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	45	24.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.18
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84