Todd Kniebbe
P
Delmarva Shorebirds
Age 22
RHP
6'6" / 245 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
K%23.4%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 4 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 42.3% | 3.8% | 38.5% | 3.8% | 2.70 | 2.13 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 4 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 42.3% | 3.8% | 38.5% | 3.8% | 2.70 | 2.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 25 | 0 | 36 | 140 | 44 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.6% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 0.9% | 2.50 | 2.97 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.31 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 61 | 246 | 69 | 23 | 4 | — | — | 28.0% | 9.3% | 18.7% | 1.7% | 3.25 | 3.52 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 3.79 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 78 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 29 | 0 | 43 | 166 | 44 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.5% | 9.7% | 16.8% | 1.4% | 2.53 | 2.84 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 0 | 200 | 778 | 207 | 76 | 11 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.5% | 9.7% | 16.8% | 1.4% | 2.53 | 2.84 | +6.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Todd Kniebbe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.17 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 26 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Corey Copping R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.12 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .265 | 4.55 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 179 | +0.43 | 3.41 | 214 | 91 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.65 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.15 | 3.00 | 144 | 91 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 90 |
| Addison Russ R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.90 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .324 | 3.02 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.88 | 2.96 | 194 | 90 |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 90 |
| Michael Gomez R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 90 |
| Austin Smith R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 89 |
| Collin Kober R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.39 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .268 | 3.04 | 24.0% | 17.9% | 128 | -0.35 | 2.40 | 294 | 89 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.03 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.41 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.38 | 4.03 | 130 | 89 |
| Tyler Bray R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 89 |
| Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 88 |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .282 | 4.65 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.94 | 154 | 87 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 87 |
| Devon Roedahl R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.92 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 100 | +0.98 | 3.94 | 122 | 87 |
| Luke Bell R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 87 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 87 |
| Jacob Rhame R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.93 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .240 | 3.57 | 24.4% | 17.8% | 182 | -0.36 | 2.58 | 251 | 86 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 85 |
| Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 85 |
| Joey Gerber R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.32 | 26.6% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .316 | 4.24 | 9.7% | 1.6% | 16 | +0.92 | 3.32 | 162 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 1.14 | 4.26 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Sam Hentges ('24) | 4 | 52 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 0.78 | 4.18 |