Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Reds | 12 | 0 | 15 | 80 | 16 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 13.6% | 29.7% | -16.1% | 0.0% | 6.46 | 5.71 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Reds | 12 | 0 | 15 | 80 | 16 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.0% | 23.8% | -3.7% | 0.0% | 6.46 | 4.73 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | 10 | 2 | 12 | 58 | 12 | 14 | 0 | 20% | 1.2 | 14.1% | 30.2% | -16.1% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 5.73 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | 10 | 2 | 12 | 58 | 12 | 14 | 0 | 20% | 1.2 | 20.7% | 24.1% | -3.4% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 4.60 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 29 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 81 | 37 | 5 | 0% | 1.9 | 26.3% | 19.1% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 3.00 | 4.66 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 29 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 81 | 37 | 5 | 0% | 1.9 | 35.5% | 16.2% | 19.3% | 2.2% | 3.00 | 3.36 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 11 | 3 | 29 | 138 | 41 | 26 | 3 | 27% | 2.6 | 23.5% | 22.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 7.45 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 68 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 26.2% | 15.2% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.81 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 91 | 398 | 109 | 65 | 11 | — | — | 27.4% | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 5.65 | 4.87 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 71 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.57 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 72 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 72 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 71 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 30 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 47 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 57 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 61 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 165 | 0 | 174 | 733 | 195 | 92 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.06 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 225 | 106 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 62 | 5 | 110 | 504 | 111 | 115 | 8 | 8% | 1.8 | 22.1% | 22.9% | -0.7% | 1.7% | 5.06 | 5.04 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 112 | 9 | 200 | 914 | 202 | 209 | 15 | 8% | 1.8 | 22.1% | 22.9% | -0.7% | 1.7% | 5.06 | 5.04 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anyer Laureano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.46 | 26.6% | 13.8% | 191 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Barrett Loseke R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.58 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 3.8% | .282 | 4.62 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 86 | +0.04 | 4.36 | 152 | 87 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.33 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.09 | 3.96 | 242 | 86 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.73 | 27.3% | 14.6% | 2.0% | .301 | 5.31 | 20.1% | 1.6% | 149 | +1.58 | 3.73 | 203 | 86 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 2.7% | .295 | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.73 | 3.86 | 130 | 85 |
| CJ Weins R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 24.7% | 15.9% | 2.5% | .276 | 5.59 | 16.8% | -2.7% | 73 | +1.17 | 4.42 | 113 | 85 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 84 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.84 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.92 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 138 | +0.08 | 3.80 | 190 | 84 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.97 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.89 | 4.08 | 168 | 84 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.90 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.86 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.96 | 4.90 | 103 | 84 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 83 |
| Colin McKee R 2027 · 5.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.08 | 24.2% | 14.7% | 3.9% | .330 | 4.37 | 27.7% | 12.9% | 97 | -0.71 | 4.10 | 148 | 83 |
| Blake Holub R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 21.7% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.90 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 156 | -0.41 | 3.31 | 236 | 83 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 83 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 83 |
| Tyler Schimpf R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.97 | 24.3% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .300 | 5.60 | 24.1% | 7.1% | 58 | +1.63 | 3.35 | 126 | 83 |
| Corey Black R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.14 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .310 | 3.60 | 22.1% | 6.0% | 53 | -0.54 | 3.60 | 139 | 82 |
| Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.98 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .270 | 5.27 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.29 | 3.98 | 117 | 82 |
| Jesen Therrien R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.94 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 2.4% | .310 | 3.39 | 21.3% | 15.8% | 76 | -0.55 | 2.70 | 192 | 82 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 82 |
| Alfredo Zarraga R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 25.1% | 13.9% | 2.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 138 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 63 | 26.5% | 13.2% | 1.14 | 4.57 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |