Yilber Herrera

SS FCL Twins

Age 22 S/R 5'11" / 145 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1283ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	ROKMIN	140	.226/.410/.330	2	7	48	—	.160/.281/.244
2025	20	A/ROKMIN	147	.154/.393/.279	3	10	41	—	.117/.283/.217
2026	21	A+/A/ROKMIN	192	.225/.434/.341	2	18	59	—	.154/.302/.231
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBMIN	302	.189/.302/.284	4	6	72	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBMIN	53	.195/.306/.299	1	1	76	0.0
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBMIN	106	.199/.308/.309	2	2	79	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Chase%96

BB%90

Speed54

Whiff%42

Z-Con%31

Max EV17

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsHayden Cantrelle (age 23) · Brainer Bonaci (age 21) · Roberto Caro (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 111 proj PA

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.187 / .300 / .281

PA111

HR1

K%29

BB%13

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 27 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT27

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE80

scouting grade only

SPEED63

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	149	116	21	6	3	1	30	40	1	10	6	181	354	310	664	129	260	27	20	310	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Twins	—	149	114	26	11	2	1	30	31	1	10	6	228	393	386	779	158	291	21	20	349	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Twins	—	140	106	24	3	1	2	31	35	2	7	6	226	410	330	740	104	314	25	22	350	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	34	26	6	2	0	1	8	10	0	3	0	231	412	423	835	192	333	29	24	381	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Twins	—	113	78	10	2	0	2	30	28	3	7	6	128	387	231	618	103	160	25	27	312	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	16	12	3	0	1	0	2	5	1	0	1	250	400	417	817	167	375	31	12	347	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	41	30	5	2	0	1	9	16	1	4	1	167	375	333	708	167	286	39	22	329	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK	FCL Twins	—	135	96	23	2	2	1	37	34	1	14	3	240	455	333	789	94	355	25	27	376	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	149	127	14	4	2	0	19	50	1	10	6	110	231	173	405	63	165	34	13	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	149	123	17	7	1	1	21	38	1	10	6	138	269	236	505	98	179	26	14	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	140	119	19	2	1	2	18	52	2	7	6	160	281	244	524	84	247	37	13	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	34	29	6	2	0	1	5	14	0	3	0	207	324	379	703	172	293	41	15	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	113	89	8	1	0	2	19	40	3	7	6	90	270	169	439	79	117	35	17	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	16	13	3	0	1	0	1	6	1	0	1	231	333	385	718	154	348	38	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	41	33	4	1	0	1	6	22	1	4	1	121	275	242	517	121	248	54	15	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	135	110	17	1	1	1	23	49	1	14	3	155	306	209	515	55	265	36	17	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	149	127	14	4	2	0	19	50	1	10	6	110	231	173	405	63	177	34	13	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	149	116	21	6	3	1	30	40	1	10	6	181	354	310	664	129	260	27	20	310	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	149	123	17	7	1	1	21	38	1	10	6	138	269	236	505	98	182	26	14	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	149	114	26	11	2	1	30	31	1	10	6	228	393	386	779	158	291	21	20	349	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	140	119	19	2	1	2	18	52	2	7	6	160	281	244	524	84	258	37	13	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	—	140	106	24	3	1	2	31	35	2	7	6	226	410	330	740	104	314	25	22	350	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	147	118	12	3	0	2	24	54	3	10	6	102	269	178	447	76	156	37	16	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	147	104	16	4	0	3	38	38	3	10	6	154	393	279	672	125	200	26	26	328	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	192	156	24	3	2	1	30	77	3	18	5	154	302	218	520	64	284	40	16	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	3 teams	—	192	138	31	4	3	2	48	55	3	18	5	225	434	341	774	116	345	29	25	363	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	149	128	14	4	2	0	19	50	1	10	6	109	231	172	403	62	165	34	13	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	149	126	17	7	1	1	21	38	1	10	6	135	269	230	499	95	179	26	14	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	140	119	19	2	1	2	18	52	2	7	6	160	281	244	524	84	247	37	13	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	147	119	12	3	0	2	24	54	3	10	6	101	269	176	445	76	158	37	16	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	192	157	24	3	2	1	30	77	3	18	5	153	302	217	518	64	268	40	16	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	140	119	19	2	1	2	18	52	2	7	6	160	281	244	524	84	247	37	13	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	147	119	12	3	0	2	24	54	3	10	6	101	269	176	445	76	158	37	16	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	192	157	24	3	2	1	30	77	3	18	5	153	302	217	518	64	268	40	16	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	302	258	49	9	2	4	38	88	3	6	2	189	302	284	586	95	266	29	13	274	72	-10	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	153	131	26	5	1	2	19	44	2	3	1	194	306	298	604	104	268	29	12	280	76	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIN	46%	230	196	39	7	1	4	29	65	3	5	1	199	308	309	617	110	270	28	13	285	79	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIN	52%	292	251	50	9	2	5	36	81	3	6	2	202	309	317	626	115	272	28	12	288	81	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	337	289	59	11	2	6	41	93	4	7	2	204	310	322	632	118	273	28	12	290	82	-7	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	356	307	63	12	2	7	42	98	4	7	2	205	309	324	633	118	273	28	12	290	83	-7	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	363	313	64	12	2	7	43	100	4	6	2	204	308	319	627	116	272	28	12	288	81	-8	+0	-1	+4	+8	0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	358	309	61	11	2	6	42	100	4	4	2	201	305	313	618	112	271	28	12	284	79	-9	+0	-1	+4	+8	0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	350	303	60	11	2	6	41	99	3	3	1	198	302	305	607	107	269	28	12	280	76	-10	+0	-2	+4	+8	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	53	45	9	2	0	1	7	15	1	1	0	195	306	299	604	104	268	28	13	280	76	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIN	46%	106	91	18	3	1	2	13	30	1	2	1	199	308	309	618	111	271	28	12	285	79	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIN	52%	151	130	27	5	1	3	18	42	2	3	1	202	309	317	626	115	272	28	12	288	81	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	183	157	33	6	1	4	22	50	2	4	1	204	310	322	632	118	273	27	12	290	82	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	193	166	34	6	1	4	23	53	2	4	1	205	310	324	634	119	273	27	12	291	83	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	197	170	34	6	1	4	23	54	2	3	1	204	308	320	627	116	273	27	12	288	81	-4	+0	-0	+2	+4	0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	190	163	33	6	1	3	23	53	2	2	1	201	305	313	618	112	271	28	12	285	79	-5	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	199	172	33	6	1	3	23	56	2	2	1	198	302	306	607	107	270	28	12	280	76	-6	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1272	1094	221	40	7	24	152	353	14	21	7	202	307	317	624	115	272	28	12	287	71	-30	+1	-2	+14	+28	1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	559	113	20	4	12	78	180	7	11	4	202	308	317	625	114	272	28	12	287	71	-16	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3327	2837	526	100	21	50	419	983	38	98	43	185	298	288	587	103	260	30	13	273	71	-62	+3	-4	+27	+55	2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	554	103	20	4	10	82	192	7	19	8	186	298	291	589	105	261	30	13	273	71	-16	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Twins · 135 PAwOBA .371 → .252 (−119)K% 25.2% → 36.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.19%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	36.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	27.41%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.985	16.74%
HBP% /PA	0.74%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.53%
Singles /BIP	29.03%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.950	×0.985	22.28%
Doubles /BIP	3.23%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×0.985	2.17%
Triples /BIP	3.23%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×0.985	2.17%
Home runs /BIP	1.61%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.985	1.24%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .371 → .252; ISO .094 → .067; BABIP .355 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 41 PAwOBA .330 → .239 (−90)K% 39.0% → 53.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	39.02%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	53.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.95%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	15.37%
HBP% /PA	2.44%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.93%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.015	13.34%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.015	12.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	5.80%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .330 → .239; ISO .167 → .119; BABIP .286 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 16 PAwOBA .362 → .319 (−43)K% 31.2% → 39.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.25%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	39.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.027	9.11%
HBP% /PA	6.25%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	5.07%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.027	27.00%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×1.027	0.00%
Triples /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×1.027	12.47%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .362 → .319; ISO .167 → .153; BABIP .375 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Twins · 113 PAwOBA .312 → .213 (−99)K% 24.8% → 35.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.78%	÷0.998	×1.440	—	—	35.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	26.55%	÷0.981	×0.620	—	×0.995	16.70%
HBP% /PA	2.65%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	1.90%
Singles /BIP	12.00%	÷1.028	×0.820	×0.950	×0.995	9.05%
Doubles /BIP	4.00%	÷0.979	×0.720	×0.950	×0.995	2.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.00%	÷1.006	×0.780	—	×0.995	3.09%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 96, 3B 100, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .312 → .213; ISO .103 → .080; BABIP .160 → .117. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 34 PAwOBA .372 → .283 (−89)K% 29.4% → 40.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.41%	÷0.994	×1.360	—	—	40.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	23.53%	÷1.054	×0.690	—	×1.030	15.86%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷1.029	×0.920	—	×1.030	17.27%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.032	×0.830	—	×1.030	10.35%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷0.898	×0.800	—	×1.030	5.74%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .372 → .283; ISO .192 → .158; BABIP .333 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Twins · 140 PAwOBA .345 → .239 (−106)K% 25.0% → 37.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷0.974	×1.440	—	—	36.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.14%	÷1.046	×0.620	—	×1.008	13.22%
HBP% /PA	1.43%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	1.04%
Singles /BIP	25.35%	÷1.036	×0.820	×0.999	×1.008	20.20%
Doubles /BIP	4.23%	÷0.971	×0.720	×0.999	×1.008	3.15%
Triples /BIP	1.41%	÷0.900	×0.720	×0.999	×1.008	1.13%
Home runs /BIP	2.82%	÷0.890	×0.780	—	×1.008	2.49%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 107, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 95, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .345 → .239; ISO .104 → .083; BABIP .314 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Twins · 149 PAwOBA .350 → .236 (−114)K% 20.8% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.81%	÷0.999	×1.220	—	—	25.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.13%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×1.008	14.35%
HBP% /PA	0.67%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.47%
Singles /BIP	14.46%	÷1.021	×0.680	×0.950	×1.008	9.22%
Doubles /BIP	13.25%	÷0.966	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	7.88%
Triples /BIP	2.41%	÷0.949	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	1.46%
Home runs /BIP	1.20%	÷1.003	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.57%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 90, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .350 → .236; ISO .158 → .098; BABIP .291 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Twins · 149 PAwOBA .308 → .198 (−110)K% 26.8% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.85%	÷0.981	×1.220	—	—	33.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.13%	÷1.116	×0.700	—	×1.022	12.91%
HBP% /PA	0.67%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.48%
Singles /BIP	14.47%	÷0.974	×0.680	×0.950	×1.022	9.82%
Doubles /BIP	7.89%	÷0.974	×0.600	×0.950	×1.022	4.72%
Triples /BIP	3.95%	÷1.013	×0.600	×0.950	×1.022	2.27%
Home runs /BIP	1.32%	÷1.032	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.61%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 95, 2B 95, 3B 103, K 96, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .308 → .198; ISO .129 → .076; BABIP .260 → .165. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Dal Maxvill'62-'75 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,898 PA	5.9	3,898	6	7	216*	295*	283*	+38	+40	1.2	3.2
/162	664	1	1	+6.4	+6.8	0.2	pk7: 5
#4Tim Bogar'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,710 PA	2.6	1,710	24	13	217*	284*	324*	+11	+37	2.1	2.9
/162	664	9	5	+4.2	+14.4	0.8	pk7: 4
#5Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
/162	664	3	3	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.1	1,382	25	24	202	304	314	+15	+15	2.1	2.0
/162	664	12	11	+7.1	+7.2	1.0	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yilber Herrera (OGILVIE)	22	22→27	34→39	58→63	80	187/300/281	94	266	1	2	29%	13%	72	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	34	41→40	54→60	55	164/295/261	97	258	8	24	35%	14%	66	-1.1	191/307/295	104	295	8	20	33%	12%	77	-0.3	192/310/298	105	297	8	21	33%	12%	77	-0.2
✕Brainer Bonaci 2023 · A	21	45→46	40→45	55→50	53	211/302/310	100	290	7	16	27%	11%	77	-0.3	227/287/348	121	312	12	11	29%	8%	80	-0.2	232/274/365	133	311	17	8	30%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Roberto Caro 2016 · A	22	41→40	37→40	60	50	192/272/272	80	251	2	20	23%	9%	57	-1.8	203/271/276	73	310	2	18	32%	8%	57	-1.8	211/282/288	76	323	2	26	32%	8%	62	-0.7
✕Nolan Fontana 2013 · A	22	47→45	40	53→50	64	216/347/316	100	299	6	15	26%	16%	97	+1.1	216/325/314	98	314	6	11	29%	14%	87	+0.4	211/322/306	95	307	5	9	29%	13%	82	-0.0
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	44	42→45	55	47	215/295/325	110	284	9	14	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/280/325	103	297	9	9	27%	6%	72	-0.7	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→49	42→45	58→60	54	211/313/323	113	290	8	21	28%	12%	85	+0.2	220/320/345	125	277	13	33	24%	11%	93	+0.8	217/321/350	133	273	12	37	23%	11%	92	+0.8
✕Christian Cairo 2023 · A	22	40→49	39→40	53→60	50	187/295/270	83	292	6	16	34%	11%	67	-1.1	210/302/291	81	303	5	23	29%	10%	73	-0.6	219/314/286	67	298	3	31	25%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Trei Cruz 2022 · A	24	36→46	39→45	52→50	53	171/280/261	90	274	5	14	36%	13%	59	-1.6	191/274/297	106	278	9	11	32%	10%	63	-1.3	229/304/336	107	310	9	10	27%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Juan Matheus 2024 · A	20	42→46	38→45	53→55	59	192/312/281	89	273	4	21	28%	14%	76	-0.4	215/292/311	96	283	7	20	24%	9%	73	-0.6	219/288/322	102	278	9	23	23%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Thomas Dillard 2021 · A	23	45→38	44→45	52→50	51	215/305/333	117	304	12	10	31%	11%	84	+0.1	196/282/319	123	325	13	9	40%	10%	72	-0.7	181/273/303	121	301	13	9	40%	10%	64	-1.1
✕Allan Castro 2024 · A	21	42→45	42→45	52→50	47	205/277/316	111	276	7	12	27%	8%	69	-0.9	213/282/329	116	284	11	15	27%	8%	74	-0.6	212/279/324	113	274	12	17	26%	8%	69	-0.7
✕Michael De La Cruz 2015 · A	22	44→43	37→40	53→50	50	206/287/290	84	283	3	13	26%	10%	66	-1.1	202/259/277	75	271	3	8	25%	7%	52	-2.2	213/295/355	142	265	15	2	25%	10%	82	+0.0
✕Kaden Polcovich 2022 · AA	23	39→41	46→45	54→55	46	195/283/323	128	276	13	17	32%	9%	74	-0.6	200/283/317	117	274	11	17	29%	9%	72	-0.7	190/277/301	111	259	10	19	29%	9%	64	-0.7
✕Isaiah Greene 2023 · A	21	45→42	38→40	57→55	54	200/309/280	81	312	4	20	33%	13%	74	-0.6	189/275/277	88	311	6	17	37%	10%	59	-1.6	148/229/229	81	253	5	17	40%	10%	29	-1.0
✕Loidel Chapelli 2024 · A	22	39→36	43→45	56→55	46	196/271/312	116	271	10	18	30%	8%	65	-1.2	196/259/284	88	300	7	17	34%	7%	54	-2.0	176/233/238	63	279	4	20	36%	6%	31	-2.0
✕John Rhodes 2023 · AA	22	43→37	41→45	58→50	47	208/286/313	105	274	8	16	26%	8%	72	-0.7	190/258/293	103	266	10	9	31%	7%	57	-1.8	173/241/264	91	242	10	7	31%	7%	41	-2.2
✕Noah Campbell 2022 · A	23	47→46	39→45	53→50	46	218/300/307	89	319	7	14	31%	9%	76	-0.4	220/301/323	103	333	7	11	33%	9%	79	-0.2	215/305/323	108	337	7	8	34%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Wilmer Difo 2014 · A	22	43→53	38→45	53→55	49	207/273/289	82	261	5	18	22%	8%	61	-1.5	251/289/359	108	301	9	24	19%	4%	82	-0.0	258/296/362	104	307	8	28	18%	4%	82	+0.0
✕Austin Elkins 2014 · A	23	43→41	40	49→50	53	207/294/304	97	258	7	13	22%	10%	73	-0.6	215/293/305	90	277	7	10	23%	9%	72	-0.7	208/294/273	65	268	4	6	22%	9%	62	-0.6
✕Geraldo Quintero 2023 · A	21	45→47	41→40	56→60	47	216/284/325	109	278	7	20	24%	8%	73	-0.6	213/279/301	88	280	6	26	25%	7%	66	-1.1	202/273/285	83	265	7	32	25%	7%	57	-1.2

Yilber Herrera

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps