Jhancarlos Lara — OGILVIE

Jhancarlos Lara P Harrisburg Senators

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%27.4%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5065

CTRL3030

CMD3035

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	10	9	30	137	38	26	0	90%	3.0	18.9%	23.7%	-4.9%	0.0%	1.78	4.51	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	10	9	30	137	38	26	0	90%	3.0	27.7%	19.0%	8.8%	0.0%	1.78	3.17	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	15	81	344	114	42	6	75%	4.1	23.2%	14.7%	8.6%	1.7%	4.09	3.95	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	15	81	344	114	42	6	75%	4.1	23.2%	14.7%	8.6%	1.7%	4.09	3.95	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	15	81	344	114	42	6	75%	4.1	33.1%	12.2%	20.9%	1.7%	4.09	2.80	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	83	371	94	60	3	95%	4.1	19.7%	18.3%	1.5%	1.2%	3.92	4.39	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	83	371	94	60	3	95%	4.1	19.7%	18.3%	1.5%	1.2%	3.92	4.39	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	83	371	94	60	3	95%	4.1	25.3%	16.2%	9.2%	0.8%	3.92	3.48	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	14	69	327	104	65	9	41%	2.0	26.2%	19.1%	7.2%	3.4%	7.73	5.14	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	14	69	327	104	65	9	41%	2.0	26.2%	19.1%	7.2%	3.4%	7.73	5.14	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	14	69	327	104	65	9	41%	2.0	31.8%	19.9%	11.9%	2.8%	7.73	4.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	36	0	39	201	59	57	1	0%	1.1	23.8%	31.2%	-7.4%	0.6%	6.05	5.37	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	36	0	39	201	59	57	1	0%	1.1	23.8%	31.2%	-7.4%	0.6%	6.05	5.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	WSH	36	0	39	201	59	57	1	0%	1.1	29.4%	28.4%	1.0%	0.5%	6.05	4.49	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	6	5	1	0%	1.1	27.4%	20.0%	7.4%	2.8%	5.22	5.22	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	44	224	65	62	2	—	—	29.2%	27.5%	1.6%	0.7%	5.95	5.35	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	88	0	92	389	108	67	11	0%	1.0	27.6%	17.1%	10.5%	2.8%	4.95	4.83	-0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	89	0	93	394	109	60	11	0%	1.0	27.7%	15.3%	12.4%	2.8%	4.72	4.60	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	89	0	93	394	109	59	11	0%	1.0	27.6%	14.8%	12.8%	2.8%	4.61	4.56	-0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	88	0	92	388	107	57	11	0%	1.0	27.5%	14.8%	12.7%	2.8%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	85	0	89	377	103	56	11	0%	1.0	27.3%	14.9%	12.4%	2.9%	4.64	4.67	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	81	0	85	360	97	54	11	0%	1.1	27.1%	15.1%	12.0%	3.1%	4.74	4.80	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	76	0	80	338	90	52	11	0%	1.1	26.7%	15.4%	11.3%	3.3%	4.88	4.98	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	42	0	44	186	51	32	5	0%	1.0	27.6%	17.1%	10.5%	2.8%	4.95	4.83	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	62	0	65	274	76	42	8	0%	1.0	27.7%	15.3%	12.4%	2.8%	4.72	4.60	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	72	0	76	321	89	48	9	0%	1.1	27.6%	14.8%	12.8%	2.8%	4.61	4.56	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	75	0	79	334	92	49	9	0%	1.1	27.5%	14.8%	12.7%	2.8%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	76	0	80	338	92	50	10	0%	1.1	27.3%	14.9%	12.4%	2.9%	4.64	4.67	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	74	0	78	329	89	50	10	0%	1.1	27.1%	15.1%	12.0%	3.1%	4.74	4.80	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	70	0	74	312	84	48	10	0%	1.1	26.7%	15.4%	11.3%	3.3%	4.88	4.98	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		473	0	496	2096	573	319	61	0%	1.0	27.3%	15.2%	12.1%	2.9%	4.72	4.33	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	231	129	25	0%	1.1	27.3%	15.2%	12.1%	2.9%	4.72	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		120	57	302	1380	313	276	23	48%	2.5	22.6%	20.0%	2.7%	1.6%	4.89	4.61	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	38	200	915	207	183	15	48%	2.5	22.6%	20.0%	2.7%	1.6%	4.89	4.61	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhancarlos Lara (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	27.4%	20.0%	2.8%	—	4.66	27.6%	11.9%	279	-0.56	—	—	—
Corey Black R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	23	SW	4.19	22.1%	13.9%	2.2%	.310	3.56	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.56	139	79
Austin Vernon R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	26.6%	14.9%	3.0%	.234	4.62	22.7%	7.8%	182	+0.24	3.37	261	77
Cole McDonald R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	26.5%	19.8%	3.1%	.403	3.88	23.4%	11.5%	93	-1.19	2.81	153	77
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	76
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	73
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	71
Mason Hickman R 2022 · 4.72 FIP	23	SW	4.72	25.5%	13.0%	3.9%	.311	5.71	21.7%	8.6%	130	+0.99	4.69	300	71
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	71
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	70
Alex Amalfi R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	22	SW	4.24	19.9%	18.5%	0.9%	.300	4.43	22.7%	10.8%	249	+0.19	2.67	299	70
Jared Johnson R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	22	SW	5.70	21.6%	18.9%	3.7%	.268	4.66	18.1%	7.2%	89	-1.04	3.01	220	70
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	448	69
Vin Timpanelli R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	27.4%	19.9%	3.7%	.350	4.72	17.9%	4.0%	69	-0.63	4.01	162	69
Matt Keating R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	22	SU	4.34	23.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.346	4.63	23.2%	9.1%	157	+0.29	3.38	222	69
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	69
Pete Bayer R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	22	SU	4.71	23.3%	18.8%	2.2%	.338	4.62	20.2%	1.1%	51	-0.09	1.96	150	69
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	68
Barrett Loseke R 2021 · 4.64 FIP	24	SU	4.64	26.2%	12.8%	3.9%	.282	4.65	21.9%	11.5%	86	+0.01	4.42	152	68
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	68
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	89	27.4%	15.9%	1.12	4.79
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88