Jhancarlos Lara
P
Columbus Clingstones
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2029
ERA5.01
FIP5.01
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%25.1%
BB%16.7%
K-BB%8.4%
IP73
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2029
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Braves | 10 | 9 | 30 | 137 | 38 | 26 | 0 | 18.9% | 23.7% | 0.0% | 1.78 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Rome Braves | 20 | 15 | 81 | 344 | 114 | 42 | 6 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 1.7% | 4.09 | 3.95 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 20 | 19 | 83 | 371 | 94 | 60 | 3 | 19.7% | 18.3% | 1.2% | 3.92 | 4.40 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 34 | 14 | 69 | 327 | 104 | 65 | 9 | 27.4% | 21.2% | 3.4% | 7.73 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 4 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 9 | 1 | — | — | — | 11.25 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ATL | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 31 | 21 | 3 | 25.1% | 16.7% | 2.8% | 5.01 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 33 | 146 | 37 | 30 | 4 | 25.4% | 20.3% | 3.1% | 5.76 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 81 | 46 | 9 | 25.5% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.68 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 82 | 41 | 9 | 25.7% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.47 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 83 | 41 | 9 | 25.8% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.44 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 75 | 318 | 82 | 40 | 9 | 25.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.45 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 80 | 40 | 9 | 25.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.48 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 78 | 39 | 9 | 25.6% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.52 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 75 | 38 | 9 | 25.4% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.58 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 72 | 37 | 9 | 25.1% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 68 | 36 | 9 | 24.9% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 64 | 35 | 8 | 24.6% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 60 | 34 | 8 | 24.2% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 56 | 32 | 8 | 23.8% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 51 | 31 | 8 | 23.4% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 5.12 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 88 | 57 | 267 | 1201 | 275 | 229 | 22 | 22.9% | 19.1% | 1.9% | 4.82 | 4.61 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 43 | 200 | 900 | 206 | 172 | 16 | 22.9% | 19.1% | 1.9% | 4.82 | 4.61 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jhancarlos Lara (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.01 | 25.1% | 16.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.53 | 25.6% | 12.3% | 227 | -0.48 | — | — | — |
| Andrew McInvale R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.61 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.69 | 4.92 | 103 | 89 |
| Vin Timpanelli R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.34 | 27.4% | 19.9% | 3.7% | .350 | 4.73 | 17.9% | 4.0% | 69 | -0.61 | 4.00 | 162 | 88 |
| Cameron Junker R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.01 | 28.5% | 19.3% | 1.6% | .226 | 4.69 | 17.8% | 2.8% | 117 | +0.68 | 4.01 | 147 | 87 |
| Tyler Schimpf R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.03 | 24.3% | 15.9% | 1.8% | .300 | 5.65 | 24.1% | 7.1% | 58 | +1.62 | 3.37 | 126 | 86 |
| Konnor Ash R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.57 | 22.2% | 17.0% | 2.2% | .340 | 3.57 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 87 | -1.00 | 2.11 | 127 | 84 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.33 | 21.9% | 16.3% | 3.7% | .295 | 5.26 | 18.8% | 4.5% | 93 | -0.07 | 3.85 | 189 | 83 |
| Dylan Heid R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.72 | 21.6% | 16.9% | 2.4% | .287 | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 103 | -1.39 | 2.65 | 135 | 83 |
| Colin McKee R 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.04 | 24.2% | 14.7% | 3.9% | .330 | 4.35 | 27.7% | 12.9% | 97 | -0.69 | 4.16 | 148 | 83 |
| Jace Beck R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.76 | 29.7% | 22.5% | 2.4% | .373 | 4.05 | 26.2% | 9.0% | 45 | -0.71 | 4.05 | 117 | 82 |
| James Acuna R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.09 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 3.0% | .302 | 4.36 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.73 | 4.36 | 107 | 82 |
| Bryce McGowan R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 23.4% | 16.0% | 2.3% | .327 | 4.35 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 99 | -0.07 | 3.74 | 178 | 82 |
| Andrew Baker R 2026 · 6.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.02 | 24.7% | 25.1% | 3.3% | .315 | 3.62 | 24.5% | 11.6% | 104 | -2.40 | 3.45 | 199 | 82 |
| Indigo Diaz R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.36 | 24.0% | 15.5% | 2.4% | .216 | 4.18 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 84 | -0.18 | 1.74 | 179 | 82 |
| Logan VanWey R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.41 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .301 | 4.39 | 26.1% | 10.7% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 143 | 82 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.69 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 2.8% | .278 | 3.73 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 53 | -0.96 | 3.73 | 104 | 82 |
| Blake Holub R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.7% | 15.3% | 2.6% | .339 | 3.87 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 156 | -0.75 | 3.42 | 202 | 81 |
| Michael Brewer R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.71 | 23.3% | 16.2% | 2.8% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 144 | 81 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.8% | .314 | 4.65 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.52 | 4.13 | 103 | 81 |
| Thomas St. Clair R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 19.9% | 1.5% | .217 | 5.02 | 17.7% | -3.3% | 94 | +0.53 | 4.33 | 116 | 80 |
| Dalbert Siri R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.07 | 26.8% | 14.7% | 2.5% | .262 | 4.88 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 67 | +0.81 | 2.64 | 216 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $5M | $13M | +$7M | ||