Jhancarlos Lara
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 122
ERA5.40
FIP5.40
K%28.3%
BB%21.7%
K-BB%6.6%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Braves | 10 | 9 | 30 | 137 | 38 | 26 | 0 | 90% | 3.0 | 18.9% | 23.7% | -4.9% | 0.0% | 1.78 | 4.51 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Braves | 10 | 9 | 30 | 137 | 38 | 26 | 0 | 90% | 3.0 | 27.7% | 19.0% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 1.78 | 3.17 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 15 | 81 | 344 | 114 | 42 | 6 | 75% | 4.1 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 8.6% | 1.8% | 4.09 | 3.97 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 15 | 81 | 344 | 114 | 42 | 6 | 75% | 4.1 | 33.1% | 12.2% | 20.9% | 1.7% | 4.09 | 2.80 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 83 | 371 | 94 | 60 | 3 | 95% | 4.1 | 19.7% | 18.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.92 | 4.52 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 83 | 371 | 94 | 60 | 3 | 95% | 4.1 | 25.3% | 16.2% | 9.2% | 0.8% | 3.92 | 3.48 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 14 | 69 | 327 | 104 | 65 | 9 | 41% | 2.0 | 27.4% | 21.2% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 7.73 | 5.42 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 14 | 69 | 327 | 104 | 65 | 9 | 41% | 2.0 | 31.8% | 19.9% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 7.73 | 4.61 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 33 | 0 | 33 | 190 | 47 | 64 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 37.1% | -17.0% | 1.3% | 8.64 | 6.79 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ATL | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 108 | 82 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 5.40 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ATL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 5.40 | 5.40 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 123 | 570 | 155 | 146 | 13 | — | — | 27.1% | 25.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 6.28 | 5.78 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | — | 28.3% | 21.7% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 5.40 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 88 | 0 | 92 | 389 | 110 | 71 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 18.4% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 5.10 | 4.98 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 111 | 64 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.71 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 48 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 18.4% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 5.10 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 74 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.2% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 100 | 0 | 105 | 442 | 125 | 76 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 17.1% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 4.44 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 239 | 145 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 17.1% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 117 | 57 | 296 | 1369 | 307 | 290 | 25 | 49% | 2.5 | 22.4% | 21.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 5.16 | 4.92 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 79 | 38 | 200 | 924 | 207 | 196 | 17 | 49% | 2.5 | 22.4% | 21.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 5.16 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jhancarlos Lara (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.40 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.84 | 28.3% | 11.0% | 186 | -0.56 | — | — | — |
| Austin Vernon R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.47 | 26.6% | 14.9% | 3.1% | .234 | 4.59 | 22.8% | 7.6% | 182 | +0.12 | 3.40 | 261 | 77 |
| Cole McDonald R 2028 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.12 | 26.5% | 19.8% | 3.2% | .403 | 4.00 | 23.7% | 11.2% | 93 | -1.12 | 2.72 | 153 | 77 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.33 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.09 | 3.96 | 242 | 74 |
| Mason Hickman R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 25.5% | 13.0% | 3.5% | .311 | 5.84 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 130 | +1.34 | 4.38 | 300 | 71 |
| Blake Holub R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 21.7% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.90 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 156 | -0.41 | 3.31 | 236 | 71 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .287 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 169 | +0.28 | 3.81 | 233 | 69 |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.84 | 3.92 | 116 | 68 |
| Vin Timpanelli R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.31 | 27.4% | 19.9% | 3.6% | .350 | 4.69 | 17.9% | 4.0% | 69 | -0.62 | 4.06 | 162 | 68 |
| Kevin Abel R 2026 · 6.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.25 | 25.2% | 22.4% | 4.4% | .441 | 4.57 | 18.6% | 4.5% | 308 | -1.68 | 4.41 | 421 | 68 |
| James Acuna R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.89 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 2.6% | .302 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.66 | 4.23 | 107 | 68 |
| Grant Ford R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 68 |
| Pete Bayer R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.73 | 23.3% | 18.8% | 2.2% | .338 | 4.55 | 20.2% | 1.1% | 51 | -0.18 | 1.96 | 150 | 67 |
| Edwardo Melendez R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 20.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 139 | 67 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.58 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 3.8% | .282 | 4.62 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 86 | +0.04 | 4.36 | 152 | 67 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.90 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.86 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.96 | 4.90 | 103 | 66 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2028 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 66 |
| Danny Cody R 2027 · 6.00 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.00 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 5.0% | .369 | 6.37 | 11.4% | -6.9% | 37 | +0.37 | 6.00 | 106 | 66 |
| Griffin Kilander R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.24 | 23.3% | 17.0% | 1.7% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 115 | 66 |
| Cole Aker R 2025 · 5.51 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.51 | 19.5% | 20.6% | 2.6% | .239 | 6.10 | 12.0% | -9.9% | 28 | +0.59 | 3.60 | 147 | 66 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .341 | 4.64 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.30 | 3.76 | 467 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 92 | 28.3% | 18.7% | 1.10 | 5.11 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |