Geuri Lubo
SS Myrtle Beach Pelicans| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROKCHC | 105 | .205/.333/.284 | 0 | 1 | 15 | — | .138/.229/.191 |
| 2024 | 20 | ROKCHC | 164 | .288/.389/.403 | 3 | 13 | 61 | — | .212/.290/.295 |
| 2026 | 22 | A+/ACHC | 222 | .190/.272/.374 | 8 | 3 | 33 | — | .145/.212/.265 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBCHC | 332 | .202/.261/.326 | 8 | 6 | 64 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBCHC | 49 | .207/.268/.338 | 1 | 1 | 69 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBCHC | 100 | .210/.271/.345 | 2 | 2 | 72 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 26 / POW 51
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cubs Red | — | 124 | 109 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 202 | 293 | 229 | 522 | 28 | 250 | 18 | 10 | 249 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 119 | 111 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 261 | 305 | 414 | 719 | 153 | 295 | 18 | 3 | 318 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 105 | 88 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 205 | 333 | 284 | 617 | 80 | 300 | 27 | 15 | 294 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 164 | 139 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 32 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 288 | 389 | 403 | 792 | 115 | 349 | 20 | 12 | 357 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 70 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 239 | 317 | 556 | 127 | 263 | 37 | 6 | 239 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 152 | 132 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 189 | 287 | 402 | 688 | 212 | 207 | 24 | 9 | 303 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Red | — | 124 | 112 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 143 | 220 | 161 | 380 | 18 | 183 | 23 | 7 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 119 | 112 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 161 | 203 | 232 | 436 | 71 | 200 | 22 | 2 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 105 | 94 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 138 | 229 | 191 | 420 | 53 | 233 | 38 | 10 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 164 | 146 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 47 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 212 | 290 | 295 | 585 | 82 | 279 | 29 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 70 | 64 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 141 | 179 | 203 | 382 | 62 | 232 | 47 | 4 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 152 | 136 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 147 | 227 | 294 | 521 | 147 | 179 | 32 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Red | — | 124 | 112 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 143 | 220 | 161 | 380 | 18 | 190 | 23 | 7 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Cubs Red | — | 124 | 109 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 202 | 293 | 229 | 522 | 28 | 250 | 18 | 10 | 249 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 119 | 112 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 161 | 203 | 232 | 436 | 71 | 198 | 22 | 2 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 119 | 111 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 261 | 305 | 414 | 719 | 153 | 295 | 18 | 3 | 318 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 105 | 94 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 138 | 229 | 191 | 420 | 53 | 241 | 38 | 10 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 105 | 88 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 205 | 333 | 284 | 617 | 80 | 300 | 27 | 15 | 294 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 164 | 146 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 47 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 212 | 290 | 295 | 585 | 82 | 293 | 29 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 164 | 139 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 32 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 288 | 389 | 403 | 792 | 115 | 349 | 20 | 12 | 357 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 222 | 201 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 82 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 149 | 212 | 289 | 501 | 139 | 203 | 37 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 222 | 195 | 37 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 62 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 272 | 374 | 646 | 185 | 223 | 28 | 8 | 283 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Red | — | 124 | 112 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 143 | 220 | 161 | 380 | 18 | 183 | 23 | 7 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 119 | 112 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 161 | 203 | 232 | 436 | 71 | 200 | 22 | 2 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 105 | 93 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 140 | 229 | 194 | 422 | 54 | 233 | 38 | 10 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 164 | 147 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 47 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 211 | 290 | 293 | 583 | 82 | 279 | 29 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 222 | 204 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 82 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 147 | 212 | 284 | 496 | 137 | 196 | 37 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 164 | 147 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 47 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 211 | 290 | 293 | 583 | 82 | 279 | 29 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 222 | 204 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 82 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 147 | 212 | 284 | 496 | 137 | 196 | 37 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | CHC | 0% | 332 | 304 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 93 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 202 | 261 | 326 | 587 | 124 | 261 | 28 | 6 | 264 | 64 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | CHC | 30% | 163 | 149 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 266 | 337 | 603 | 131 | 263 | 28 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | CHC | 44% | 227 | 208 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 62 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 209 | 270 | 344 | 614 | 135 | 265 | 27 | 7 | 275 | 72 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | CHC | 51% | 280 | 256 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 76 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 211 | 273 | 349 | 622 | 138 | 266 | 27 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | CHC | 52% | 310 | 283 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 84 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 212 | 275 | 350 | 624 | 138 | 267 | 27 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | CHC | 53% | 325 | 297 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 88 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 212 | 275 | 348 | 623 | 137 | 268 | 27 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | CHC | 53% | 325 | 297 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 89 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 210 | 272 | 343 | 615 | 133 | 267 | 27 | 7 | 275 | 72 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | CHC | 56% | 321 | 293 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 207 | 269 | 335 | 604 | 129 | 265 | 28 | 7 | 271 | 70 | -12 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | CHC | 30% | 49 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 268 | 338 | 606 | 131 | 267 | 29 | 6 | 271 | 69 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | CHC | 44% | 100 | 92 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 210 | 271 | 345 | 617 | 135 | 268 | 27 | 7 | 276 | 72 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | CHC | 51% | 142 | 129 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 274 | 350 | 625 | 138 | 269 | 27 | 7 | 279 | 74 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | CHC | 52% | 162 | 148 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 213 | 276 | 351 | 627 | 138 | 270 | 27 | 7 | 280 | 75 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | CHC | 53% | 173 | 157 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 47 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 213 | 276 | 350 | 626 | 136 | 271 | 27 | 7 | 280 | 75 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | CHC | 53% | 171 | 155 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 47 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 273 | 344 | 617 | 133 | 270 | 27 | 7 | 276 | 72 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | CHC | 56% | 181 | 165 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 270 | 337 | 607 | 128 | 268 | 28 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 978 | 891 | 188 | 36 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 267 | 12 | 17 | 5 | 211 | 275 | 342 | 618 | 131 | 272 | 27 | 7 | 277 | 61 | -32 | +1 | -2 | +10 | +21 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 125 | 24 | 4 | 15 | 45 | 177 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 211 | 276 | 341 | 617 | 130 | 273 | 27 | 7 | 277 | 61 | -21 | +1 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2814 | 2567 | 507 | 98 | 15 | 61 | 186 | 793 | 34 | 62 | 24 | 198 | 261 | 319 | 580 | 121 | 257 | 28 | 7 | 259 | 61 | -69 | +2 | -4 | +22 | +45 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 117 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 43 | 183 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 197 | 261 | 317 | 578 | 120 | 257 | 28 | 7 | 259 | 61 | -22 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 152 PAwOBA .299 → .230 (−69)K% 23.7% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.68% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 6.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×0.990 | 9.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×0.990 | 6.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.008 | ×0.990 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 4.95% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .299 → .230; ISO .212 → .162; BABIP .207 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 70 PAwOBA .243 → .190 (−53)K% 37.1% → 47.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 47.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 19.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 4.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.32% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .243 → .190; ISO .127 → .094; BABIP .263 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Cubs · 164 PAwOBA .352 → .259 (−93)K% 19.5% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.51% | ÷0.989 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷0.947 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 7.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.83% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.97% | ÷1.047 | ×0.820 | ×1.045 | ×0.985 | 23.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.67% | ÷0.903 | ×0.720 | ×1.045 | ×0.985 | 3.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.045 | ×0.985 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.80% | ÷0.935 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 2.30% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 109, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 98, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .352 → .259; ISO .115 → .088; BABIP .349 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Cubs · 105 PAwOBA .287 → .191 (−96)K% 26.7% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 9.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.001 | ×0.995 | 14.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.001 | ×0.995 | 8.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.001 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .287 → .191; ISO .080 → .051; BABIP .300 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Cubs Blue · 119 PAwOBA .312 → .201 (−111)K% 17.6% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.001 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.52% | ÷1.096 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.36% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.680 | ×1.033 | ×0.995 | 13.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.89% | ÷0.932 | ×0.600 | ×1.033 | ×0.995 | 5.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.600 | ×1.033 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.935 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 1.67% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 100, 2B 86, 3B 97, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .312 → .201; ISO .153 → .087; BABIP .295 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Cubs Red · 124 PAwOBA .245 → .175 (−70)K% 17.7% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.74% | ÷0.939 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.68% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.61% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.84% | ÷0.964 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 16.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.001 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 2.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.140 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.915 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 93, 2B 100, 3B 128, K 88, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .245 → .175; ISO .028 → .017; BABIP .250 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).