Luke Hill — OGILVIE

Luke Hill3B Lake County Captains

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 193 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION237 act + 158 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†104

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .325 / .401

PA158

HR5

K%26

BB%11

BABIP283

ISO175

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE67

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.1	$12M	+$12M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.1	$12M	+$11M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$10M	+$9M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+1.7	$8M	+$6M
2034	Arb-2	$5M	+1.5	$7M	+$4M
2035	Arb-3	$6M	+1.2	$5M	+$3M
Totals		$17M		$53M	+$45M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	53	15	3	1	1	7	16	0	7	4	283	367	434	801	151	378	26	11	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	49	17	3	1	1	11	11	0	7	4	347	467	510	977	163	421	18	18	421	180	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	CLE	—	237	203	42	13	1	9	28	65	3	9	3	207	312	414	726	207	252	27	12	319	103	+1	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.9
YTD	22	A+	CLE	—	237	191	49	16	1	11	40	49	3	9	3	257	393	524	917	267	286	21	17	397	162	+17	+1	+0	+1	+7	2.5
ROS	22	A+	CLE	0%	158	137	31	7	1	5	18	41	2	4	1	226	325	401	726	175	279	26	11	321	104	+1	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.6
ROS	22	MLB	CLE	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						280	0	0	313	98	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	22	A+	CLE	—	238	204	42	13	1	9	28	65	3	9	3	206	311	412	722	206	250	27	12	319	103	+1	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.9
TOT	22	A+	CLE	—	395	340	73	20	2	14	46	106	5	13	4	215	317	409	726	194	265	27	12	320	103	+1	+1	+0	+1	+11	1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CLE	31%	326	283	65	14	2	11	37	83	3	6	2	230	325	410	735	180	282	25	11	325	107	+2	+0	+0	+1	+9	1.4
2028	24	MLB	CLE	45%	403	351	81	18	2	13	45	101	4	7	2	231	325	405	730	174	284	25	11	327	108	+4	+1	+0	+1	+11	1.8
2029	25	MLB	CLE	54%	436	380	89	19	2	15	48	109	5	7	2	234	328	413	741	179	285	25	11	328	109	+5	+1	+0	+2	+12	1.9
2030	26	MLB	CLE	58%	455	397	92	20	2	15	50	113	5	8	2	232	325	406	731	174	285	25	11	328	109	+5	+1	+0	+2	+13	2.1
2031	27	MLB	CLE	59%	459	400	92	20	2	15	51	114	5	8	2	230	325	403	727	173	284	25	11	328	110	+5	+1	+0	+2	+13	2.1
2032	28	MLB	CLE	60%	457	398	92	20	2	15	51	115	5	7	2	231	326	405	731	173	284	25	11	327	109	+4	+1	-1	+2	+13	1.9
2033	29	MLB	CLE	59%	448	390	90	19	2	15	50	113	5	7	2	231	326	405	731	174	283	25	11	325	107	+4	+1	-1	+2	+13	1.7
2034	30	MLB	CLE	59%	439	383	87	19	2	14	49	112	4	7	2	227	321	397	718	170	281	26	11	323	105	+2	+1	-2	+2	+12	1.5
2035	31	MLB	CLE	58%	425	370	83	18	2	13	48	110	4	6	2	224	320	389	709	165	279	26	11	318	102	+1	+0	-3	+2	+12	1.2
2036	32	MLB	CLE	58%	407	354	78	17	2	12	46	107	4	6	2	220	317	381	698	161	275	26	11	313	97	-1	+0	-4	+1	+12	0.9
2037	33	MLB	CLE	58%	377	328	70	15	1	11	42	101	4	5	2	213	310	366	676	152	270	27	11	305	92	-3	+0	-4	+1	+11	0.5
2038	34	MLB	CLE	53%	333	290	60	12	1	9	37	91	3	4	1	207	303	348	651	141	264	27	11	296	85	-6	+0	-5	+1	+9	0.0
2039	35	MLB	CLE	49%	280	245	48	9	1	7	31	79	2	3	1	196	291	327	618	131	256	28	11	286	77	-7	+0	-6	+1	+8	-0.4
2027	23	MLB	CLE	31%	102	89	21	5	1	3	11	26	1	2	1	236	327	416	742	180	283	25	11	317	101	+0	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.3
2028	24	MLB	CLE	45%	183	159	37	8	1	6	20	46	2	3	1	233	326	409	735	176	285	25	11	320	103	+1	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.7
2029	25	MLB	CLE	54%	233	203	47	10	1	8	26	58	2	4	1	232	325	409	734	177	285	25	11	321	103	+1	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.9
2030	26	MLB	CLE	58%	265	231	54	12	1	9	29	66	3	4	1	234	327	411	738	177	285	25	11	321	104	+1	+0	+0	+1	+8	1.0
2031	27	MLB	CLE	59%	273	238	55	12	1	9	30	68	3	4	1	231	325	403	728	172	285	25	11	321	104	+1	+0	+0	+1	+8	1.0
2032	28	MLB	CLE	60%	275	239	55	12	1	9	31	69	3	4	1	230	326	402	728	172	284	25	11	320	103	+1	+0	-0	+1	+8	1.0
2033	29	MLB	CLE	59%	265	230	53	11	1	9	30	67	3	4	1	230	327	404	731	174	283	25	11	318	102	+0	+0	-1	+1	+8	0.9
2034	30	MLB	CLE	59%	257	223	51	11	1	8	29	66	3	4	1	229	325	395	720	166	282	26	11	315	99	-0	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.7
2035	31	MLB	CLE	58%	247	215	48	10	1	8	28	64	2	4	1	223	318	391	709	167	279	26	11	311	96	-1	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.6
2036	32	MLB	CLE	58%	236	206	46	10	1	7	26	62	2	3	1	223	316	383	700	160	276	26	11	306	92	-2	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.4
2037	33	MLB	CLE	58%	218	190	40	8	1	6	24	58	2	3	1	211	306	358	663	147	271	27	11	299	87	-3	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.1
2038	34	MLB	CLE	53%	177	153	32	6	1	5	20	48	2	2	1	209	309	359	668	150	264	27	11	290	80	-4	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.1
2039	35	MLB	CLE	49%	136	119	25	5	1	4	15	38	1	2	1	210	304	370	673	160	257	28	11	280	72	-4	+0	-3	+0	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2868	2496	564	120	13	91	319	736	29	43	13	226	321	394	715	168	281	26	11	312	97	-10	+3	-14	+10	+81	7.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	128	27	3	21	72	167	7	10	3	226	321	396	717	170	281	26	11	312	97	-2	+1	-3	+2	+18	1.7
Career	—			—	5465	4759	1073	230	25	171	610	1405	55	92	29	225	320	392	713	167	281	26	11	319	103	+16	+7	-25	+20	+155	17.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	127	27	3	20	73	167	7	11	3	224	321	389	710	164	280	26	11	319	103	+2	+1	-3	+2	+18	2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	49	17	3	1	1	11	11	0	7	4	347	467	510	977	163	421	18	18	421	180	+6	-0	—	—	+2	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jedd Gyorkolast yr '20 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,983 PA	8	2,983	121	14	245	310	424	+8	+22	13.4	13.5
	/162	664	27	3	245	310	424	+1.7	+5.0	3.0	pk7: 14
#2Travis Shawlast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,671 PA	7	2,671	114	20	239	322	441	+4	+6	13.4	13.4
	/162	664	28	5	239	322	441	+1.1	+1.6	3.3	pk7: 13
#3Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#4Mark Bellhornlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,181 PA	6	2,181	63	21	233	345	404	+2	+5	10.3	10.3
	/162	664	19	6	233	345	404	+0.6	+1.5	3.1	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,868	91	44	227	318	396	+10	+0	9.8	8.6
	/162	664	21	10	227	318	396	+2.4	+0.0	2.3	pk7: 7
#5Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	7	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
	/162	664	22	3	243	306	411	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#6Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	6	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
	/162	664	24	7	230	317	416	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Hill (OGILVIE)	22	55	45	45	67	215/317/409	194	265	14	13	27%	12%	103	+1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●James Darnell 2010 · A	23	51→53	51→55	45→40	54	254/334/424	170	304	18	6	22%	10%	117	+2.9	251/318/428	177	293	21	4	21%	8%	111	+2.5	247/313/432	185	281	24	2	21%	8%	108	+1.5
●Derek Norris 2011 · A	22	41→51	50→55	44→50	53	208/315/362	154	287	18	6	32%	12%	94	+1.3	214/303/389	175	277	22	11	29%	11%	95	+1.4	261/339/417	156	319	16	5	22%	10%	113	+1.9
✕Chase Meidroth 2023 · A	22	49→55	55→40	48→50	49	253/327/440	188	289	23	12	21%	8%	118	+3.0	245/335/346	101	303	9	12	21%	10%	98	+1.6	255/341/344	89	303	8	12	17%	10%	97	+1.2
●Thomas Neal 2010 · A	22	53→58	51→55	45→50	46	260/328/427	167	327	18	3	25%	7%	115	+2.8	259/315/405	146	321	15	9	23%	6%	104	+2.0	262/316/399	138	322	14	10	22%	5%	99	+1.2
●Miguel Vargas 2022 · AA	22	50→53	52→55	51→50	44	256/304/419	164	299	20	9	22%	6%	103	+1.9	229/306/389	160	271	17	12	22%	9%	96	+1.5	221/322/407	185	244	21	11	19%	12%	106	+1.7
●Alec Bohm 2020 · AA	23	47→56	50	46→45	49	239/297/393	153	271	17	6	19%	7%	93	+1.3	258/314/383	125	316	13	6	22%	7%	97	+1.5	270/324/418	148	300	16	4	15%	6%	108	+2.2
●Mark Zagunis 2016 · A	23	50→54	43→50	46→50	53	239/333/359	120	303	10	11	23%	10%	100	+1.7	240/328/378	138	311	13	9	25%	10%	102	+1.9	234/324/368	134	307	13	9	26%	10%	95	+1.0
●Max Ramirez 2007 · A	22	50→52	45→55	45→40	51	245/322/370	126	317	13	3	26%	10%	98	+1.6	247/326/401	154	331	18	3	29%	9%	108	+2.3	241/322/397	157	324	19	2	30%	9%	104	+1.3
✕Bryson Smith 2012 · A	23	51→61	47→45	48→50	45	249/322/386	137	302	14	7	22%	6%	102	+1.9	257/310/352	95	309	7	8	18%	4%	87	+0.8	261/314/345	84	311	6	7	17%	4%	85	+0.3
✕Kelvin Diaz 2008 · A	21	52	47→50	44→45	49	255/327/393	138	287	14	7	16%	7%	106	+2.2	231/292/351	120	283	10	9	21%	6%	80	+0.4	224/279/357	134	275	10	13	22%	4%	76	+0.0
●Vinnie Catricala 2011 · A	22	48→55	48→55	46→45	42	239/294/382	143	301	16	6	26%	6%	89	+1.0	235/286/374	139	288	15	8	23%	5%	83	+0.6	223/273/352	129	272	14	7	23%	5%	70	-0.3
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	46→49	52→60	48→50	46	235/306/406	171	300	20	12	28%	8%	101	+1.8	230/301/408	178	293	21	10	28%	7%	99	+1.7	237/310/439	202	292	25	12	27%	7%	107	+1.7
✕Travis Denker 2008 · A	22	47→51	47→50	44→45	52	234/305/367	134	272	14	5	20%	9%	90	+1.0	225/289/343	118	281	10	5	22%	8%	76	+0.1	227/302/380	153	255	18	0	19%	8%	92	+0.6
●Luis Campusano 2021 · A	22	53→56	48→50	45→30	49	262/317/408	146	298	16	3	18%	7%	105	+2.1	232/287/365	133	285	15	3	24%	6%	82	+0.5	264/328/432	168	297	22	1	19%	8%	113	+1.5
✕Eddy Martinez-Esteve 2006 · A	23	53→60	50→45	46→40	55	263/345/429	165	309	15	5	20%	10%	122	+3.3	248/314/360	112	299	10	4	19%	8%	91	+1.1	271/327/373	102	310	9	2	15%	7%	96	+1.0
●David Freitas 2012 · A	23	46→56	45	45→40	50	228/302/348	120	281	13	3	23%	9%	84	+0.6	220/284/346	126	268	14	2	22%	7%	76	+0.0	277/336/397	120	333	11	0	19%	7%	107	+1.2
●Gordon Beckham 2009 · A	22	47→56	48→50	46→45	45	240/288/377	137	278	16	7	20%	6%	85	+0.7	253/317/400	147	292	14	7	18%	7%	103	+1.9	247/314/384	136	287	13	6	18%	7%	96	+1.4
✕Gabriel Moreno 2022 · AA	22	52	53→45	47→45	46	264/318/444	179	300	21	7	20%	6%	115	+2.8	279/337/395	116	335	11	9	19%	7%	110	+2.4	277/360/410	133	318	13	6	16%	11%	119	+1.6
●Matt Duffy 2014 · A	23	51→61	46→45	53→50	50	253/313/385	132	289	14	16	18%	8%	97	+1.5	278/324/394	116	330	9	15	18%	6%	103	+1.9	283/337/389	106	328	9	12	16%	6%	105	+1.8
●Alejandro Kirk 2021 · MLB	22	51→57	45→50	49→40	54	248/322/382	134	283	11	5	16%	9%	101	+1.8	258/337/397	139	278	16	2	13%	10%	111	+2.5	262/347/393	131	276	16	0	11%	11%	111	+1.7