Luke Hill — OGILVIE

Luke Hill3B Lake County Captains

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 193 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION309 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†99

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP278

ISO151

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE64

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$11M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	49	17	3	1	1	11	11	0	7	4	347	467	510	977	163	421	18	18	421	171	+5	-0	—	—	+1	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	53	16	3	1	1	7	16	0	7	4	302	383	453	836	151	367	26	11	340	116	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	53	16	3	1	1	7	16	0	7	4	302	383	453	836	151	405	26	11	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	49	17	3	1	1	11	11	0	7	4	347	467	510	977	163	421	18	18	421	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	55	16	3	1	1	7	16	0	7	4	291	383	436	820	145	367	26	11	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	55	16	3	1	1	7	16	0	7	4	291	383	436	820	145	367	26	11	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	CLE	—	309	266	56	15	1	11	34	83	5	13	4	211	311	398	710	188	257	27	11	308	94	-2	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	CLE	—	164	124	34	8	1	10	34	31	3	6	2	274	441	597	1.038	323	282	19	21	440	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AA RAW	CLE	—	145	128	29	10	0	3	14	34	2	7	2	227	312	375	688	148	283	23	10	309	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	CLE	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		279	22	11	315	99	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	22	A+ MLE	CLE	—	318	274	57	15	1	11	35	85	5	13	4	208	309	391	699	182	254	27	11	308	95	-2	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	31%	316	276	63	14	1	10	33	81	4	7	2	228	319	395	714	167	281	26	10	318	101	+0	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	45%	396	347	80	17	2	13	41	99	5	7	2	231	321	403	724	173	282	25	10	321	103	+2	+1	+0	+1	+9	1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	54%	431	379	88	19	2	14	44	107	5	8	2	232	320	404	724	172	283	25	10	323	104	+2	+1	+0	+2	+9	1.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	58%	452	398	93	20	2	15	46	112	5	8	2	234	321	407	728	173	283	25	10	323	105	+3	+1	+0	+2	+10	1.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	59%	457	402	93	20	2	15	47	113	5	8	2	231	319	403	722	172	283	25	10	323	105	+3	+1	+0	+2	+10	1.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	60%	456	400	93	20	2	15	48	114	5	7	2	233	322	405	727	173	282	25	11	322	104	+2	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	59%	447	392	89	19	2	14	47	113	5	7	2	227	318	393	710	166	281	25	11	320	103	+2	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	59%	438	384	88	19	2	14	46	111	5	6	2	229	320	398	718	169	280	25	11	317	101	+0	+0	-2	+2	+9	1.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	58%	425	372	84	18	2	13	45	109	5	6	2	226	318	390	707	164	277	26	11	313	98	-1	+0	-3	+2	+9	0.7
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	58%	407	356	77	16	1	12	43	106	5	6	2	216	309	368	677	152	273	26	11	307	94	-3	+0	-4	+1	+9	0.4
2037	33	MLB MLE	CLE	58%	377	331	70	14	1	11	39	100	4	5	1	211	302	360	662	148	269	27	10	300	89	-5	+1	-4	+1	+8	0.1
2038	34	MLB MLE	CLE	53%	332	292	60	12	1	9	34	91	3	4	1	205	295	346	641	140	262	27	10	291	83	-7	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	31%	99	88	19	4	0	3	10	25	1	2	1	216	303	364	667	148	280	25	10	308	101	+0	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	45%	180	158	37	8	1	6	18	45	2	3	1	234	320	411	732	177	282	25	10	311	103	+1	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	54%	231	202	46	10	1	7	24	57	3	4	1	228	319	391	710	163	282	25	10	313	104	+1	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	58%	263	231	53	11	1	9	27	65	3	4	1	229	318	403	721	173	282	25	10	314	105	+2	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	59%	271	238	55	12	1	9	28	67	3	5	1	231	320	403	723	172	282	25	10	314	105	+2	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	60%	274	240	56	12	1	9	29	68	3	4	1	233	324	404	728	171	281	25	11	313	104	+1	+0	-0	+1	+6	0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	59%	265	232	52	11	1	8	28	67	3	4	1	224	316	384	699	159	281	25	11	311	103	+1	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	59%	257	225	51	11	1	8	27	65	3	4	1	227	318	391	709	164	279	25	11	308	101	+0	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	58%	247	216	49	10	1	8	26	64	3	4	1	227	318	394	712	167	277	26	11	304	98	-1	+0	-2	+1	+5	0.5
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	58%	236	206	45	9	1	7	25	62	3	3	1	218	312	374	686	155	273	26	11	298	94	-2	+0	-2	+1	+5	0.3
2037	33	MLB CTX	CLE	58%	218	191	41	8	1	6	23	58	2	3	1	215	306	361	667	147	268	27	11	291	89	-3	+0	-2	+1	+5	0.0
2038	34	MLB CTX	CLE	53%	177	155	31	6	0	5	18	48	2	2	1	200	291	335	627	135	262	27	10	283	83	-4	+0	-3	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2718	2382	535	112	10	85	283	691	31	42	12	225	315	387	702	162	278	25	10	306	100	-1	+4	-11	+10	+59	6.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	127	27	2	20	68	165	7	10	3	223	314	382	696	160	276	25	10	306	100	-0	+1	-3	+2	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5005	4390	995	211	21	156	521	1274	56	86	26	227	316	391	707	164	281	25	10	316	100	-2	+7	-20	+18	+107	11.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	129	27	3	20	68	165	7	11	3	226	316	389	706	163	281	25	10	316	100	-0	+1	-3	+2	+14	1.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	5.3	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
/162	664	21	2	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#3Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	5.3	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
/162	664	13	8	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#4Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.1	2,718	85	42	227	313	392	+10	+0	8.5	7.5
/162	664	21	10	+2.4	+0.0	2.1	pk7: 7
#6Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	2.5	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
/162	664	24	7	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Hill (OGILVIE)	22	55	45	45	64	221/313/385	164	279	4	4	26%	10%	99	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chase Meidroth 2023 · A	22	49→56	53→40	48→50	50	250/323/425	175	285	20	12	20%	8%	112	+2.2	247/339/344	97	305	9	12	20%	11%	99	+1.2	256/344/352	96	304	9	11	17%	10%	100	+1.3
●Miguel Vargas 2022 · AA	22	50→52	49→55	51→50	45	253/303/401	148	297	17	9	21%	6%	98	+1.2	227/306/381	154	270	16	12	22%	9%	95	+0.9	224/326/406	183	249	21	12	19%	12%	105	+1.6
✕James Darnell 2010 · A	23	51→52	51→55	45→40	54	254/334/424	170	304	18	6	22%	10%	115	+2.4	246/315/406	160	287	18	4	20%	8%	103	+1.6	242/311/404	161	276	19	2	20%	8%	100	+0.8
✕Derek Norris 2011 · A	22	41→51	50→55	44→50	52	209/313/362	153	287	18	6	32%	12%	94	+0.9	209/299/374	165	271	20	11	29%	10%	91	+0.7	258/336/412	153	316	16	5	22%	10%	109	+1.5
●Ryan Jeffers 2019 · A	22	52→56	43→60	44→40	47	250/320/360	111	317	10	3	24%	8%	95	+1.0	221/288/351	130	297	16	2	29%	7%	81	-0.1	250/339/433	183	282	21	2	19%	10%	116	+1.8
✕Thomas Neal 2010 · A	22	53→58	51→50	45→50	46	260/328/427	167	327	18	3	25%	7%	114	+2.3	260/316/392	132	322	12	9	22%	6%	100	+1.3	265/318/383	118	325	10	10	21%	5%	96	+0.8
●Vinnie Catricala 2011 · A	22	48→57	47→55	46→45	42	239/296/379	140	302	15	6	25%	6%	91	+0.6	238/290/375	137	291	14	8	23%	6%	87	+0.4	228/279/354	126	277	13	7	22%	5%	76	-0.4
✕Kelvin Diaz 2008 · A	21	52	47→50	44→45	49	255/327/393	138	287	14	7	16%	7%	105	+1.7	231/292/351	120	283	10	9	21%	6%	82	+0.0	224/279/357	134	275	10	13	22%	4%	79	-0.1
●Max Ramirez 2007 · A	22	50→52	45→50	45→40	51	245/322/370	126	317	13	3	26%	10%	98	+1.2	246/325/396	150	329	17	3	28%	9%	105	+1.7	240/322/391	151	324	18	2	29%	9%	102	+1.0
✕Chun-Hsiu Chen 2011 · A	22	53→58	46→50	47→45	47	256/316/399	144	324	11	6	24%	7%	102	+1.5	242/301/371	129	333	12	6	29%	7%	90	+0.6	233/295/353	120	327	11	7	30%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Bryson Smith 2012 · A	23	51→60	47→45	48→50	45	249/322/386	137	302	14	7	22%	6%	102	+1.5	255/307/350	95	305	7	8	18%	4%	87	+0.4	257/310/341	84	306	6	7	17%	4%	85	+0.1
✕Travis Denker 2008 · A	22	47→52	47→50	44→45	52	234/305/367	134	272	14	5	20%	9%	91	+0.7	224/289/340	116	280	10	5	22%	8%	78	-0.3	229/306/370	141	260	15	0	18%	8%	92	+0.4
●David Freitas 2012 · A	23	47→57	45	45→40	51	233/309/354	122	288	13	3	23%	9%	90	+0.6	224/288/342	118	273	12	2	22%	7%	79	-0.2	273/334/387	114	329	10	0	19%	7%	103	+0.8
●Gordon Beckham 2009 · A	22	47→56	48→50	46→45	45	240/288/377	137	278	16	7	20%	6%	86	+0.3	253/317/399	146	291	14	7	18%	7%	103	+1.5	248/315/384	137	287	13	6	18%	7%	97	+1.0
●Graham Pauley 2023 · A	22	45→51	46→55	48→50	52	226/305/358	133	270	13	12	21%	9%	89	+0.5	230/298/389	159	277	18	11	23%	8%	93	+0.8	222/292/383	160	263	19	11	23%	8%	87	+0.3
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	46→49	52→60	48→50	46	235/306/404	170	299	19	12	28%	8%	100	+1.3	229/300/399	170	291	20	10	28%	7%	97	+1.1	234/307/425	191	291	23	12	27%	7%	102	+1.1
✕Eddy Martinez-Esteve 2006 · A	23	53→60	50→45	46→40	55	263/345/429	165	309	15	5	20%	10%	120	+2.8	248/314/358	110	298	9	4	19%	8%	92	+0.7	273/330/372	100	311	8	2	14%	7%	97	+0.7
✕José Caballero 2019 · A	22	48→46	43→45	47→70	45	232/293/349	117	280	10	9	21%	6%	82	-0.0	219/293/329	110	283	9	26	25%	8%	78	-0.3	225/318/339	113	300	10	63	26%	9%	88	+0.3
●Connor Hollis 2019 · A	24	52→62	46→45	47→55	49	254/329/381	127	311	13	9	22%	8%	103	+1.5	229/299/339	110	301	9	10	25%	7%	82	+0.0	265/335/378	113	347	8	15	24%	8%	101	+0.8
●Yainer Diaz 2022 · A	23	52→60	48→60	48→40	41	263/296/405	142	309	16	5	21%	4%	96	+1.0	270/304/451	181	308	23	3	20%	4%	110	+2.1	280/313/466	185	314	24	1	19%	4%	114	+1.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps