Luke Hill

3B Lake County Captains

Age 23 R/R 5'11" / 193 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#320ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ALynchburg Hil…	62	.347/.467/.510	1	7	122	—	.308/.400/.462
2026	22	AA/A+/INTL2 orgs	357	.264/.391/.497	15	15	112	—	.227/.326/.420
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCLE	1	.233/.322/.397	0	0	104	0.0
2028PROJ42% MLB	24	MLBCLE	118	.235/.324/.401	4	2	105	0.3
2029PROJ62% MLB	25	MLBCLE	205	.236/.324/.403	7	4	106	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed63

K%60

Chase%60

Whiff%56

ISO47

BB%47

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 15, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 74%

CompsLuis Urías (age 23) · Connor Norby (age 23) · Logan O'Hoppe (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†104

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .322 / .397

PA1

HR0

K%26

BB%10

BABIP293

ISO174

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$28M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	49	17	3	1	1	11	11	0	7	4	347	467	510	977	163	421	18	18	421	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	150	132	31	10	0	3	15	34	2	7	2	235	322	379	701	144	292	23	10	315	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	164	124	34	8	1	10	34	31	3	6	2	274	441	597	1.038	323	282	19	21	440	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	43	36	12	3	0	2	6	7	1	2	0	333	442	583	1.025	250	370	16	14	448	189	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	52	16	3	1	1	8	15	0	7	4	308	400	462	862	154	368	24	13	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	150	136	29	9	0	2	11	42	2	7	2	213	282	324	605	110	283	28	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	164	134	32	7	1	9	24	39	3	6	2	239	366	507	874	269	248	24	15	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	52	16	3	1	1	8	15	0	7	4	308	400	462	862	154	405	24	13	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	49	17	3	1	1	11	11	0	7	4	347	467	510	977	163	421	18	18	421	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	357	307	68	18	1	12	40	92	6	15	4	221	323	404	727	182	272	26	11	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	357	292	77	21	1	15	55	72	6	15	4	264	391	497	888	233	298	20	15	389	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	54	16	3	1	1	8	15	0	7	4	296	400	444	844	148	368	24	13	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	357	308	68	18	1	12	40	92	6	15	4	221	323	403	726	182	265	26	11	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	54	16	3	1	1	8	15	0	7	4	296	400	444	844	148	368	24	13	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	357	308	68	18	1	12	40	92	6	15	4	221	323	403	726	182	265	26	11	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	0%	424	372	86	17	2	13	44	111	5	8	2	233	322	398	720	165	292	26	10	322	104	+2	+1	-1	+2	+9	0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	233	322	397	719	164	293	0	0	321	104	+0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	42%	278	244	57	11	1	9	29	72	3	5	1	235	324	402	726	167	293	26	10	324	105	+2	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	62%	330	289	70	14	2	11	34	85	4	6	2	236	324	404	728	168	293	26	10	325	106	+2	+0	-1	+1	+7	1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	71%	363	319	76	15	2	12	37	92	4	6	2	236	324	404	728	167	293	25	10	324	106	+2	+0	-1	+1	+8	1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	74%	372	327	77	15	2	12	38	95	4	6	2	236	323	401	724	166	292	26	10	323	105	+2	+0	-1	+1	+8	1.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	75%	375	330	78	15	2	12	38	96	4	5	2	234	320	397	717	162	291	26	10	320	103	+1	+0	-2	+1	+8	0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	74%	366	322	75	15	2	11	37	94	4	5	2	232	317	390	707	158	289	26	10	316	100	+0	+0	-2	+1	+8	0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	73%	357	314	71	14	1	10	36	93	4	4	2	228	314	382	695	153	287	26	10	311	97	-1	+0	-3	+1	+8	0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	79%	341	301	68	13	1	10	34	90	3	3	3	224	309	371	680	147	284	26	10	305	93	-3	-1	-4	+1	+7	0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	83%	319	282	61	12	1	8	31	86	3	3	7	218	302	358	660	140	279	27	10	297	87	-5	-2	-4	+1	+7	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	42%	118	104	24	5	0	4	12	31	1	2	1	235	324	401	725	166	293	26	10	323	105	+1	+0	-0	+0	+3	0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	62%	205	180	44	9	1	7	21	53	2	4	1	236	324	403	727	167	293	26	10	324	106	+1	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	71%	259	227	54	11	1	8	27	66	3	4	1	236	324	403	727	166	293	25	10	324	106	+2	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	74%	273	240	57	11	1	9	28	69	3	4	1	236	323	400	723	164	292	25	10	323	105	+1	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	75%	280	247	58	12	1	9	28	71	3	4	1	235	321	396	716	161	291	25	10	320	103	+1	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	74%	269	237	55	11	1	8	27	69	3	3	1	232	318	389	707	157	290	26	10	316	100	+0	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	73%	260	229	53	10	1	8	26	68	3	3	1	229	314	381	695	152	288	26	10	311	97	-1	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	79%	269	237	54	11	1	8	27	71	3	3	2	224	309	371	680	146	284	26	10	305	93	-2	-0	-3	+1	+6	0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	83%	265	235	52	10	1	7	26	71	2	2	6	219	303	358	660	139	280	27	10	297	87	-4	-2	-4	+1	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2198	1936	451	90	8	68	222	569	23	29	15	233	319	393	712	160	293	26	10	315	101	-1	-0	-14	+8	+48	4.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	133	27	2	20	66	168	7	9	4	232	319	391	710	159	291	26	10	315	101	-0	-0	-4	+2	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3730	3271	761	154	17	115	384	965	41	69	32	233	321	396	716	163	292	26	10	317	101	+2	-0	-19	+12	+72	6.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	133	27	3	20	67	168	7	12	6	233	321	396	718	163	293	26	10	317	101	+0	-0	-4	+2	+14	1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 164 PAwOBA .435 → .362 (−72)K% 18.9% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.90%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	24.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.73%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	14.90%
HBP% /PA	1.83%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	1.46%
Singles /BIP	16.13%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.006	×1.012	15.10%
Doubles /BIP	8.60%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.006	×1.012	7.09%
Triples /BIP	1.08%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.006	×1.012	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	10.75%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	8.71%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .435 → .362; ISO .323 → .277; BABIP .282 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 150 PAwOBA .309 → .271 (−38)K% 22.7% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.67%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	27.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.042	7.29%
HBP% /PA	1.33%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	1.18%
Singles /BIP	18.37%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.008	×1.042	18.72%
Doubles /BIP	10.20%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.008	×1.042	9.22%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.008	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.06%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.042	2.49%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .309 → .271; ISO .144 → .121; BABIP .292 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 62 PAwOBA .417 → .349 (−69)K% 17.7% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.74%	÷0.989	×1.360	—	—	24.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.74%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×1.015	12.75%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	31.58%	÷1.071	×0.920	—	×1.015	27.53%
Doubles /BIP	7.89%	÷0.921	×0.830	—	×1.015	7.22%
Triples /BIP	2.63%	÷1.020	×0.910	—	×1.015	2.38%
Home runs /BIP	2.63%	÷1.184	×0.800	—	×1.015	1.80%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 114, 2B 84, 3B 104, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .417 → .349; ISO .163 → .138; BABIP .421 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeimer Candelariolast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,576 PA	5.4	3,576	110	19	237	316	412	+8	-5	12.7	13.0
/162	664	20	4	+1.6	-0.9	2.4	pk7: 13
#2Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#3Bernie Allen'62-'73 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,823 PA	5.8	3,823	73	13	245*	319*	390*	+13	-30	6.4	7.4
/162	664	13	2	+2.3	-5.2	1.1	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.3	2,199	66	29	232	314	390	+8	-12	6.6	6.3
/162	664	20	9	+2.4	-3.6	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Leo Gomez'90-'96 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,238 PA	3.4	2,238	79	4	238*	329*	430*	+5	-20	6.2	6.2
/162	664	23	1	+1.4	-6.1	1.8	pk7: 6
#5Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	2.5	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
/162	664	24	7	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6
#6Russ Davis'94-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,176 PA	3.3	2,176	84	16	244*	296*	428*	+6	-9	5.0	5.2
/162	664	26	5	+1.9	-2.8	1.5	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Hill (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	231/320/394	163	292	7	4	26%	10%	104	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Luis Urías 2020 · MLB	23	51→61	47→55	47→45	50	248/327/387	140	308	14	6	23%	9%	104	+1.6	242/326/400	158	294	18	6	23%	9%	107	+1.8	239/331/399	160	283	19	4	21%	10%	109	+1.3
✕Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	46→51	52→55	49→50	45	236/302/402	166	297	20	12	27%	7%	98	+1.2	247/306/406	159	329	18	11	29%	7%	100	+1.3	247/320/404	157	334	17	14	30%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	46→48	53→55	45	50	238/315/406	168	271	22	7	21%	8%	104	+1.6	238/301/417	179	290	25	5	26%	7%	101	+1.4	230/285/405	175	287	26	2	29%	6%	94	+0.6
●Elijah Dukes 2008 · MLB	24	48→54	53→55	48→50	55	248/331/424	176	279	20	12	19%	10%	114	+2.3	245/342/416	171	293	17	14	21%	12%	116	+2.5	247/348/417	170	297	16	14	21%	12%	118	+2.0
●James Darnell 2010 · A	23	51→52	51→55	45→40	54	255/336/426	171	306	18	6	22%	10%	116	+2.5	248/318/410	162	289	18	4	20%	9%	105	+1.7	244/314/410	165	278	20	2	20%	8%	103	+1.0
●Alec Bohm 2020 · AA	23	49→56	49→50	46→45	49	245/302/395	150	277	16	6	18%	7%	96	+1.0	261/316/385	124	320	12	6	21%	7%	99	+1.2	273/325/420	147	304	15	4	15%	6%	111	+2.0
✕Vinnie Catricala 2012 · AA	23	53→58	51→55	49→45	44	265/321/434	169	317	18	9	22%	6%	112	+2.2	220/271/334	114	275	12	7	24%	5%	70	-0.8	195/244/283	87	247	9	4	24%	5%	46	-2.1
●Alejandro Kirk 2022 · MLB	23	50→57	51→50	47→40	55	252/328/416	163	272	18	4	15%	9%	111	+2.1	262/340/389	127	281	14	2	12%	10%	109	+2.0	260/341/374	114	279	12	0	11%	10%	106	+1.3
●Miguel Vargas 2023 · MLB	23	51→54	50→55	51→50	49	256/318/416	160	295	17	13	20%	8%	107	+1.8	227/316/385	158	269	16	11	21%	10%	99	+1.3	226/328/409	183	251	21	13	19%	12%	110	+2.0
●Andy Pages 2024 · AA	23	42→52	54→60	47→50	47	218/307/400	182	287	21	9	30%	9%	100	+1.3	260/319/438	178	314	21	10	23%	7%	112	+2.2	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Derek Norris 2012 · AA	23	39→49	53→55	47→50	53	204/313/377	173	277	21	10	32%	12%	97	+1.1	230/312/390	160	287	19	10	25%	10%	99	+1.3	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
●Chase Meidroth 2023 · A	22	49→58	52→40	48→50	51	248/325/415	167	283	19	12	20%	8%	109	+2.0	254/348/353	99	314	9	12	20%	11%	104	+1.6	263/352/365	101	313	10	11	17%	11%	107	+1.8
●Jonathan India 2022 · MLB	25	51→54	50	49→50	53	252/351/414	163	314	17	11	24%	10%	119	+2.7	248/341/395	147	300	16	11	21%	10%	111	+2.1	238/339/373	135	284	14	9	20%	11%	105	+1.7
●Khalil Greene 2004 · MLB	24	47→53	51→60	45	45	237/300/403	166	294	18	8	26%	7%	97	+1.1	254/315/425	171	290	18	6	18%	7%	108	+1.9	252/315/425	173	286	18	6	18%	7%	109	+1.7
✕Brendan Rodgers 2020 · MLB	23	50→55	47→50	47→45	41	247/295/386	139	307	15	7	25%	5%	91	+0.7	250/300/391	141	303	15	4	22%	6%	95	+0.9	257/312/394	138	302	14	0	19%	6%	101	+1.0
●Sean Rodríguez 2008 · AA	23	46→51	50→60	47→50	44	231/303/389	157	299	17	12	28%	7%	96	+1.0	241/313/435	194	302	23	11	27%	7%	110	+2.1	244/318/452	208	301	26	12	27%	7%	113	+1.7
●Justyn-Henry Malloy 2023 · AAA	23	50→60	47→50	48→45	50	241/323/375	135	330	15	6	30%	10%	99	+1.3	239/338/387	148	334	17	6	30%	12%	108	+1.9	239/348/390	150	332	17	5	30%	13%	110	+1.8
✕Tyler Locklear 2024 · AA	23	48→53	51→50	53→50	46	239/324/402	162	306	18	11	27%	8%	107	+1.8	243/321/392	149	323	16	12	28%	8%	103	+1.5	245/324/392	147	326	16	13	28%	8%	102	+1.2
✕Maikel Franco 2016 · MLB	23	52→58	52→55	48→40	45	265/304/436	171	293	19	4	17%	5%	107	+1.8	248/292/417	169	266	22	3	16%	6%	98	+1.2	243/287/413	170	253	23	1	15%	5%	96	+1.0
✕Tyler Gentry 2023 · AA	24	52→56	52→50	46→50	47	257/337/422	165	343	20	9	30%	9%	116	+2.5	224/299/357	133	313	14	10	31%	8%	86	+0.3	204/280/327	124	289	12	10	32%	8%	70	-0.7

Luke Hill

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps