Fulton Lockhart — OGILVIE

Fulton Lockhart P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 198 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150142vR 134

ERA6.15

FIP6.15

K%22.4%

BB%23.3%

K-BB%-0.9%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	9	0	13	56	13	9	1	0%	1.4	17.2%	19.0%	-1.8%	2.6%	2.77	5.50	—
2024	20	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	9	0	13	56	13	9	1	0%	1.4	17.2%	19.0%	-1.8%	2.6%	2.77	5.50	—
2024	20	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	9	0	13	56	13	9	1	0%	1.4	23.2%	16.1%	7.1%	1.8%	2.77	4.18	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	27	154	45	39	2	0%	1.2	22.6%	30.0%	-7.4%	2.1%	9.00	6.16	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	27	154	45	39	2	0%	1.2	22.6%	30.0%	-7.4%	2.1%	9.00	6.16	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	27	154	45	39	2	0%	1.2	29.2%	25.3%	3.9%	1.3%	9.00	5.06	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	45	0	54	232	89	40	1	0%	1.2	29.0%	21.2%	7.8%	0.7%	2.67	3.72	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	45	0	54	232	89	40	1	0%	1.2	29.0%	21.2%	7.8%	0.7%	2.67	3.72	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	LAA	37	0	44	184	72	33	1	0%	1.2	39.1%	17.9%	21.2%	0.5%	1.65	2.37	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	LAA	8	0	10	48	17	7	0	0%	1.3	35.4%	14.6%	20.8%	0.0%	6.97	1.96	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAA	52	0	55	232	54	44	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	19.2%	4.1%	2.9%	5.71	5.54	-0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	54	0	56	238	57	39	7	0%	1.0	23.8%	16.4%	7.4%	2.9%	5.32	5.13	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAA	26	0	27	114	26	22	3	0%	1.0	23.2%	19.2%	4.1%	2.9%	5.71	5.54	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	37	0	39	165	39	27	5	0%	1.1	23.8%	16.4%	7.4%	2.9%	5.32	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	280	66	49	8	0%	1.1	23.6%	17.5%	6.0%	2.9%	5.48	4.92	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	148	24	0%	1.1	23.6%	17.5%	6.0%	2.9%	5.48	4.92	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		77	0	94	442	112	106	6	0%	1.2	25.2%	24.0%	1.3%	1.4%	4.50	4.80	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		164	0	200	940	237	225	14	0%	1.2	25.2%	24.0%	1.3%	1.4%	4.50	4.80	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fulton Lockhart (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.15	22.4%	23.3%	2.9%	—	5.33	23.5%	5.7%	111	-0.82	—	—	—
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.10	167	89
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	89
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	86
Greg Weissert R 2016 · 5.22 FIP	21	SU	5.22	19.4%	19.3%	2.4%	.382	3.80	23.0%	10.3%	126	-1.42	2.57	481	84
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	84
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	84
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	83
Jace Beck R 2022 · 6.24 FIP	22	SU	6.24	19.2%	23.6%	3.2%	.205	4.33	27.6%	8.3%	76	-1.91	4.03	211	83
Madison Jeffrey R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	22	SU	5.47	19.9%	25.3%	1.5%	.252	5.08	17.6%	-9.7%	107	-0.39	4.65	168	82
Walker Brockhouse R 2021 · 6.65 FIP	22	SU	6.65	20.2%	19.7%	5.0%	.265	4.69	19.3%	3.2%	111	-1.96	4.24	126	82
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	81
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	81
Jairo Beras R 2017 · 6.07 FIP	22	SU	6.07	16.4%	16.9%	4.0%	.237	4.35	20.7%	4.5%	96	-1.72	3.48	110	80
Zach Barnes R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	18.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.378	5.03	14.9%	1.5%	119	-0.32	4.90	145	80
Angel German R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	22	SU	5.26	19.0%	16.3%	3.1%	.324	6.58	17.8%	2.7%	52	+1.32	3.33	200	80
Bryce McGowan R 2022 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	17.0%	22.9%	2.4%	.368	4.36	20.6%	6.6%	145	-1.54	3.71	178	80
Danny Dopico R 2016 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	18.3%	22.6%	2.1%	.309	3.19	23.9%	11.2%	189	-2.39	3.00	318	80
Edgar Isea R 2023 · 6.17 FIP	20	SU	6.17	24.2%	27.6%	2.9%	.310	4.90	20.6%	-4.4%	76	-1.27	4.50	162	80
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	80
Edward Baram R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	22	SU	5.05	18.5%	22.7%	1.2%	.354	5.57	15.4%	0.5%	95	+0.52	5.05	119	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	41	23.4%	18.3%	1.12	5.57
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99