Eli Serrano III — OGILVIE

Eli Serrano IIIOF Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 23 L/L 6'5" / 201 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION231 act + 154 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .268 / .297

PA154

HR2

K%29

BB%8

BABIP261

ISO109

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 47 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT47

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	72	65	13	3	1	2	5	23	2	1	0	200	278	369	647	169	275	32	7	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	72	63	15	3	2	2	7	16	2	1	0	238	333	444	778	206	289	22	10	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	383	342	60	17	1	5	32	101	5	9	3	175	256	275	531	99	229	26	8	237	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	383	324	72	21	1	7	50	77	5	9	3	222	335	358	693	136	266	20	13	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	NYM	—	231	201	33	11	3	3	20	77	4	6	2	164	253	294	547	129	238	33	9	236	39	-16	+0	+0	-1	+7	-1.1
YTD	23	AA	NYM	—	231	192	37	13	3	3	29	60	4	6	2	193	311	339	650	146	254	26	13	291	81	-5	+0	+0	-1	+7	0.1
ROS	23	AA	NYM	2%	154	138	26	7	1	2	13	45	2	3	1	188	268	297	565	109	263	29	8	265	61	-7	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.4
ROS	23	MLB	NYM	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						263	33	0	254	53	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	NYM	—	234	204	33	11	3	3	20	78	4	6	2	162	250	289	539	127	234	33	9	236	39	-16	+0	-0	-1	+7	-1.1
TOT	23	AA	NYM	—	385	339	59	18	4	5	33	122	6	9	3	174	259	295	554	121	248	32	9	248	48	-23	+1	-0	-2	+11	-1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	NYM	31%	425	381	76	19	3	9	36	121	5	8	2	199	277	336	613	136	266	28	8	276	69	-15	+1	-1	-3	+12	-0.5
2028	25	MLB	NYM	45%	459	411	84	20	3	11	39	128	6	8	3	204	283	348	631	144	268	28	8	285	76	-12	+0	-1	-3	+13	-0.3
2029	26	MLB	NYM	51%	479	428	89	21	3	12	42	132	6	9	3	208	288	355	643	147	270	28	9	290	80	-11	+1	-1	-3	+14	-0.0
2027	24	MLB	NYM	31%	132	118	24	6	1	3	11	38	2	2	1	203	282	347	630	144	265	29	8	266	62	-6	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.3
2028	25	MLB	NYM	45%	205	182	37	9	1	5	18	57	3	4	1	203	286	346	632	143	268	28	9	275	69	-7	+0	-0	-1	+6	-0.3
2029	26	MLB	NYM	51%	244	218	46	11	2	6	21	67	3	4	1	211	289	362	652	151	269	27	9	280	73	-8	+0	-0	-1	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	584	521	107	26	4	14	50	163	8	10	3	205	285	351	636	146	268	28	9	275	69	-21	+1	-1	-4	+17	-0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	119	29	4	16	56	181	9	11	3	205	285	352	637	147	267	28	9	275	69	-23	+1	-1	-4	+18	-0.9
Career	—			—	1972	1765	348	87	12	41	167	550	26	38	12	197	276	330	606	133	259	28	8	273	67	-73	+3	-3	-12	+56	-2.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	116	29	4	14	55	181	9	13	4	199	279	335	614	136	261	28	8	273	67	-24	+1	-1	-4	+18	-0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	72	63	15	3	2	2	7	16	2	1	0	238	333	444	778	206	289	22	10	345	122	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2025	22	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	383	324	72	21	1	7	50	77	5	9	3	222	335	358	693	136	266	20	13	315	99	-0	+1	—	—	+11	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	587	14	11	207	283	350	-4	+0	-0.2	-0.1
	/162	664	15	12	207	283	350	-4.0	+0.0	-0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Eli Serrano III (OGILVIE)	23	35→47	40→50	50→52	50	174/259/295	121	248	5	9	32%	9%	48	-1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→44	42→55	51→45	45	198/266/301	103	259	9	11	26%	7%	56	-1.3	220/277/364	144	296	17	6	30%	6%	78	+0.2	223/282/380	157	291	20	3	30%	6%	81	+0.3
✕Jeisson Rosario 2023 · AA	23	44→49	43→45	47→50	48	214/291/327	114	289	10	12	28%	9%	74	-0.1	204/290/309	105	312	10	12	34%	10%	69	-0.4	186/281/277	91	297	9	12	37%	11%	54	-0.9
✕Jordan Patterson 2015 · A	23	42→49	41→50	48→50	40	206/271/300	94	280	10	13	29%	6%	59	-1.1	218/277/357	139	304	13	11	32%	5%	76	+0.0	212/271/361	149	298	14	9	32%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Kyler Fedko 2023 · A	23	43→42	43→50	51→55	47	212/285/327	114	283	10	10	27%	8%	71	-0.3	202/288/323	121	269	12	14	28%	10%	72	-0.2	197/277/356	159	247	21	23	29%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	39	45→55	47→45	45	200/277/324	124	256	13	8	27%	7%	68	-0.5	216/273/378	162	292	20	4	32%	6%	80	+0.4	212/264/396	184	278	26	0	33%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Chris Pieters 2018 · A	23	45	41→45	51→55	44	215/279/319	105	286	7	13	26%	7%	66	-0.6	207/259/301	94	296	6	11	30%	6%	53	-1.5	165/200/219	54	252	0	15	33%	4%	4	-0.8
✕Caleb Roberts 2023 · AA	23	41→42	43→45	50	43	199/278/313	114	297	11	12	34%	8%	65	-0.7	202/279/326	124	295	11	11	33%	8%	69	-0.4	187/272/303	117	258	12	11	30%	8%	58	-0.7
✕Jose Brizuela 2016 · A	23	41→40	43→50	50→45	46	204/274/320	117	274	10	7	28%	8%	65	-0.7	211/268/334	123	297	13	5	32%	7%	66	-0.6	195/247/325	130	268	17	1	33%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Tristan Peters 2023 · AA	23	45→53	44→45	53→50	48	218/288/344	126	281	9	14	25%	8%	76	+0.1	229/295/348	119	286	9	12	22%	8%	80	+0.4	238/306/369	131	290	10	10	21%	8%	87	+0.6
✕Conner Capel 2019 · A	22	43→46	45→50	47→55	44	215/272/342	127	282	11	11	28%	7%	69	-0.4	213/263/334	121	282	13	10	28%	6%	63	-0.8	213/283/334	121	267	13	19	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Jaycob Brugman 2016 · AA	24	44→49	43→50	47→45	43	215/267/325	110	281	10	8	27%	6%	62	-0.9	232/285/344	112	306	10	8	26%	7%	75	-0.0	236/290/349	113	311	11	7	27%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Reid Fronk 2010 · A	24	42→48	43→45	44→50	46	206/292/318	112	279	10	10	28%	8%	72	-0.2	205/290/294	89	289	5	8	28%	9%	66	-0.6	200/290/283	83	283	3	7	27%	9%	61	-0.7
✕Carlos Guzman 2008 · A	22	39→48	43→50	53→50	44	194/277/307	113	282	11	9	33%	9%	63	-0.8	224/271/333	109	314	11	8	31%	6%	66	-0.6	231/283/327	97	303	10	3	26%	6%	67	-0.3
●Tim Wheeler 2011 · A	23	43→53	45→50	50	43	215/274/335	120	274	13	14	26%	6%	68	-0.5	237/291/367	130	317	13	13	28%	6%	83	+0.6	238/291/359	121	322	12	13	29%	6%	78	+0.2
✕Mike Papi 2015 · A	22	37→47	41→45	50→45	49	186/264/279	93	248	9	7	28%	10%	50	-1.7	199/277/309	110	280	10	5	30%	9%	63	-0.8	211/294/337	126	281	14	4	28%	10%	76	+0.1
✕Orlando Martinez 2021 · A	23	42→45	46→50	44→50	41	215/262/342	127	276	14	7	27%	6%	65	-0.7	217/260/340	123	296	12	8	30%	5%	63	-0.8	231/297/326	95	291	7	9	21%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Josh Sale 2014 · A	23	43	44→45	46→40	47	211/283/328	117	285	11	8	29%	9%	70	-0.3	202/263/295	93	360	7	4	42%	7%	53	-1.5	182/256/292	110	307	12	2	41%	8%	47	-1.0
✕Troy Montgomery 2018 · AA	23	48→55	42→40	51→50	47	230/294/339	109	298	9	13	25%	8%	77	+0.1	227/294/313	86	322	5	12	28%	8%	70	-0.3	245/317/316	71	358	2	15	29%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Preston Beck 2015 · A	24	42→44	42→45	48→45	49	207/286/315	108	269	9	8	26%	9%	69	-0.4	212/271/319	107	265	9	7	22%	7%	63	-0.9	214/263/314	100	274	9	3	24%	5%	55	-0.9
✕Mike Daniel 2007 · A	22	39→49	41→45	48→50	43	192/259/288	96	277	9	11	33%	8%	50	-1.8	233/284/346	113	316	11	14	28%	6%	75	-0.0	236/286/349	113	314	11	15	27%	6%	74	-0.1