Eli Serrano III

OF Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Age 24 L/L 6'5" / 201 lbs AA H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421ANYM72.238/.333/.4442171—.185/.264/.338
202522A+NYM383.222/.335/.3587945—.177/.253/.285
202623AA/ANYM316.185/.303/.3366849—.166/.255/.292
2027PROJMLE24MLBNYM4.188/.266/.3030066-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB25MLBNYM52.193/.271/.3181171-0.1
2029PROJ35% MLB26MLBNYM97.196/.274/.3272274-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
BB%68
Speed68
Whiff%60
ISO58
K%40
Chase%40
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%
CompsOliver Dunn (age 24) · Sebastián Elizalde (age 24) · Travis Swaggerty (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†66
AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .266 / .303
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%8
BABIP259
ISO117
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -7.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-8BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -1.1 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +4.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.7M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202421 ASt. Lucie Mets — 7263 15322 7162 10 238333444778 206289 2210 345 71 — — — — — —
202522 A+Brooklyn Cyclones — 383324 722117 50775 93 222335358693 136266 2013 315 45 — — — — — —
202623 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies — 287242 461536 35754 82 190302351654 161241 2612 292 53 — — — — — —
202623 ASt. Lucie Mets — 2923 3100 581 00 130310174484 43200 2817 252 11 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202421 A MLESt. Lucie Mets — 7265 12212 5222 10 185264338602 154262 317 273 71 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLEBrooklyn Cyclones — 383344 611716 301005 93 177253285538 108218 268 235 45 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEBinghamton Rumble Ponies — 287252 431335 25924 82 171256306562 135225 329 246 53 — — — — — —
202623 A MLESt. Lucie Mets — 2925 3100 3111 00 120241160401 40176 3810 185 11 — — — — — —
202421 A MLESt. Lucie Mets — 7265 12212 5222 10 185264338602 154244 317 273 71 — — — — — —
202421 A RAWSt. Lucie Mets — 7263 15322 7162 10 238333444778 206289 2210 345 71 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLEBrooklyn Cyclones — 383344 611716 301005 93 177253285538 108227 268 235 45 — — — — — —
202522 A+ RAWBrooklyn Cyclones — 383324 722117 50775 93 222335358693 136266 2013 315 45 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 316276 451435 291025 82 163255290545 127230 329 240 49 — — — — — —
202623 AA RAW2 teams — 316265 491636 40835 82 185303336639 151238 2613 289 49 — — — — — —
202421 A MLESt. Lucie Mets — 7265 12212 5222 10 185264338602 154262 317 273 71 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLEBrooklyn Cyclones — 383345 611716 301005 93 177253284537 107218 268 235 45 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 316279 451435 291025 82 161255287542 125221 329 240 49 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A MLESt. Lucie Mets — 7265 12212 5222 10 185264338602 154262 317 273 71 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLEBrooklyn Cyclones — 383345 611716 301005 93 177253284537 107218 268 235 45 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 316279 451435 291025 82 161255287542 125221 329 240 49 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLENYM 2% 366328 641726 311104 62 194272313585 119268 308 265 66 -15 +0 -0 -2 +8 -0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXNYM 2% 44 0000 010 00 188266303570 116259 250 259 66 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLENYM 23% 226202 391014 19673 41 199277328605 129270 308 273 71 -8 +0 +0 -1 +5 -0.4
202926 MLB MLENYM 35% 276247 511326 24803 51 202280337617 135271 299 278 74 -8 +1 +0 -2 +6 -0.4
202825 MLB CTXNYM 23% 5247 8201 4151 10 193271318589 125260 298 267 71 -2 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.1
202926 MLB CTXNYM 35% 9788 17412 8281 20 196274327601 131261 298 272 74 -3 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 149135 25613 12432 30 185262311573 126247 298 270 59 -5 +1 +0 -1 +3 -0.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650589 10826413 521889 130 183260307567 124245 298 270 59 -21 +3 +0 -4 +14 -0.8
Career— MLE — 14641305 24165926 12342820 308 185265308573 123249 298 256 59 -24 +1 -0 -4 +15 -1.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650579 10829412 551909 134 187267313580 126251 298 256 59 -23 +1 -0 -4 +14 -1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 287 PAwOBA .290 → .246 (−44)K% 26.1% → 31.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.13%÷1.000×1.220——31.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.20%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0278.77%
HBP% /PA1.39%—×0.850—×1.0271.22%
Singles /BIP13.17%÷1.000×0.970×0.986×1.02712.94%
Doubles /BIP8.98%÷1.000×0.860×0.986×1.0277.82%
Triples /BIP1.80%÷1.000×0.950×0.986×1.0271.73%
Home runs /BIP3.59%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0272.88%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .290 → .246; ISO .161 → .137; BABIP .241 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 29 PAwOBA .247 → .185 (−63)K% 27.6% → 37.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.59%÷1.000×1.360——37.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.24%÷1.000×0.690—×0.99011.78%
HBP% /PA3.45%—×0.780—×0.9902.66%
Singles /BIP13.33%÷1.000×0.920—×0.99012.14%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷1.000×0.830—×0.9905.48%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910—×0.9900.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9900.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .247 → .185; ISO .043 → .033; BABIP .200 → .176. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 383 PAwOBA .311 → .235 (−75)K% 20.1% → 26.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.10%÷1.011×1.310——26.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.05%÷1.022×0.600—×1.0127.76%
HBP% /PA1.31%—×0.770—×1.0121.02%
Singles /BIP17.41%÷1.021×0.870×0.978×1.01214.69%
Doubles /BIP8.50%÷0.989×0.780×0.978×1.0126.63%
Triples /BIP0.40%÷1.051×0.850×0.978×1.0120.32%
Home runs /BIP2.83%÷1.073×0.880—×1.0122.35%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 110, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .311 → .235; ISO .136 → .110; BABIP .266 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASt. Lucie Mets · 72 PAwOBA .336 → .273 (−63)K% 22.2% → 30.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.22%÷0.990×1.360——30.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.72%÷1.030×0.690—×1.0156.61%
HBP% /PA2.78%—×0.780—×1.0152.20%
Singles /BIP17.02%÷0.957×0.920×0.979×1.01516.25%
Doubles /BIP6.38%÷0.954×0.830×0.979×1.0155.52%
Triples /BIP4.26%÷1.150×0.910×0.979×1.0153.35%
Home runs /BIP4.26%÷0.826×0.800—×1.0154.18%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 91, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .336 → .273; ISO .206 → .172; BABIP .289 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).