Logan Wagner
3B Great Lakes Loons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ALAA | 164 | .246/.407/.484 | 6 | 4 | 88 | — | .179/.321/.343 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+/INTL2 orgs | 601 | .216/.349/.382 | 17 | 20 | 67 | — | .173/.276/.296 |
| 2026 | 22 | AA/A+/ROKLAD | 399 | .244/.326/.503 | 22 | 6 | 68 | — | .186/.252/.375 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBLAD | 1 | .187/.269/.348 | 0 | 0 | 75 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ22% MLB | 24 | MLBLAD | 81 | .192/.275/.360 | 3 | 1 | 79 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ35% MLB | 25 | MLBLAD | 140 | .196/.278/.366 | 5 | 2 | 82 | 0.1 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 58 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 328 | 240 | 568 | 20 | 289 | 21 | 12 | 275 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 15 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 333 | 91 | 424 | 167 | 33 | 27 | 246 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 164 | 126 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 41 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 246 | 407 | 484 | 892 | 238 | 309 | 25 | 16 | 392 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | — | 533 | 440 | 95 | 23 | 2 | 15 | 78 | 140 | 11 | 18 | 3 | 216 | 348 | 380 | 727 | 164 | 277 | 26 | 15 | 331 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 68 | 55 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 218 | 358 | 400 | 758 | 182 | 270 | 25 | 18 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 130 | 107 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 178 | 323 | 383 | 706 | 206 | 228 | 34 | 16 | 322 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | — | 254 | 231 | 60 | 19 | 0 | 16 | 18 | 71 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 260 | 315 | 550 | 865 | 290 | 299 | 28 | 7 | 369 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 15 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 500 | 533 | 643 | 1.176 | 143 | 636 | 20 | 7 | 519 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 58 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 170 | 241 | 189 | 430 | 19 | 235 | 29 | 7 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 15 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 267 | 83 | 350 | 143 | 47 | 20 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 164 | 134 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 58 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 179 | 321 | 343 | 664 | 164 | 259 | 35 | 12 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 533 | 463 | 80 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 55 | 181 | 11 | 18 | 3 | 173 | 276 | 296 | 572 | 123 | 247 | 34 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 130 | 113 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 54 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 142 | 254 | 301 | 555 | 159 | 199 | 42 | 12 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 254 | 237 | 47 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 13 | 90 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 198 | 243 | 409 | 652 | 211 | 246 | 35 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 15 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 357 | 400 | 429 | 829 | 71 | 491 | 27 | 7 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 58 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 170 | 241 | 189 | 430 | 19 | 250 | 29 | 7 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Dodgers | — | 58 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 328 | 240 | 568 | 20 | 289 | 21 | 12 | 275 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 15 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 267 | 83 | 350 | 200 | 47 | 20 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Dodgers | — | 15 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 333 | 91 | 424 | 167 | 33 | 27 | 246 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 164 | 134 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 58 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 179 | 321 | 343 | 664 | 164 | 270 | 35 | 12 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 164 | 126 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 41 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 246 | 407 | 484 | 892 | 238 | 309 | 25 | 16 | 392 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 601 | 522 | 91 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 63 | 204 | 11 | 20 | 3 | 174 | 277 | 299 | 576 | 125 | 252 | 34 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 601 | 495 | 107 | 25 | 3 | 17 | 90 | 157 | 11 | 20 | 3 | 216 | 349 | 382 | 731 | 166 | 276 | 26 | 15 | 332 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 399 | 364 | 67 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 29 | 148 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 184 | 250 | 374 | 624 | 190 | 248 | 37 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 399 | 352 | 86 | 25 | 0 | 22 | 40 | 118 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 244 | 326 | 503 | 829 | 259 | 298 | 30 | 10 | 359 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 58 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 170 | 241 | 189 | 430 | 19 | 235 | 29 | 7 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 15 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 267 | 83 | 350 | 143 | 47 | 20 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 164 | 135 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 58 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 178 | 321 | 341 | 662 | 163 | 259 | 35 | 12 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 601 | 522 | 91 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 63 | 204 | 11 | 20 | 3 | 174 | 277 | 299 | 576 | 125 | 247 | 34 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 399 | 364 | 67 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 29 | 148 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 184 | 250 | 374 | 624 | 190 | 240 | 37 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 164 | 135 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 58 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 178 | 321 | 341 | 662 | 163 | 259 | 35 | 12 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 601 | 522 | 91 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 63 | 204 | 11 | 20 | 3 | 174 | 277 | 299 | 576 | 125 | 247 | 34 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 399 | 364 | 67 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 29 | 148 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 184 | 250 | 374 | 624 | 190 | 240 | 37 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | LAD | 0% | 509 | 453 | 87 | 21 | 1 | 17 | 45 | 180 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 189 | 272 | 349 | 621 | 160 | 266 | 35 | 9 | 279 | 75 | -15 | +1 | -3 | +2 | +11 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | LAD | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 187 | 269 | 348 | 618 | 161 | 260 | 0 | 0 | 277 | 75 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | LAD | 22% | 365 | 325 | 63 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 33 | 126 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 195 | 277 | 360 | 637 | 166 | 268 | 35 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +8 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | LAD | 35% | 404 | 360 | 71 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 36 | 137 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 198 | 280 | 367 | 647 | 169 | 270 | 34 | 9 | 289 | 82 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +9 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | LAD | 42% | 428 | 382 | 76 | 17 | 1 | 15 | 38 | 142 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 201 | 283 | 370 | 653 | 169 | 271 | 33 | 9 | 292 | 83 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | LAD | 45% | 436 | 389 | 79 | 18 | 1 | 15 | 39 | 143 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 202 | 284 | 370 | 653 | 167 | 272 | 33 | 9 | 292 | 84 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | LAD | 46% | 436 | 389 | 79 | 18 | 1 | 15 | 39 | 142 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 203 | 284 | 367 | 651 | 165 | 272 | 33 | 9 | 291 | 83 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | LAD | 46% | 427 | 381 | 76 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 140 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 281 | 361 | 642 | 161 | 271 | 33 | 9 | 288 | 81 | -10 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | LAD | 51% | 416 | 372 | 74 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 138 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 198 | 278 | 354 | 632 | 156 | 269 | 33 | 9 | 283 | 78 | -11 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +9 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | LAD | 22% | 81 | 73 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 275 | 360 | 634 | 167 | 262 | 35 | 9 | 284 | 79 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | LAD | 35% | 140 | 124 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 196 | 278 | 366 | 644 | 170 | 264 | 34 | 9 | 288 | 82 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | LAD | 42% | 179 | 159 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 198 | 281 | 369 | 650 | 171 | 265 | 34 | 9 | 290 | 83 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | LAD | 45% | 195 | 173 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 64 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 282 | 369 | 650 | 169 | 266 | 33 | 9 | 290 | 84 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | LAD | 46% | 202 | 180 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 66 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 281 | 366 | 647 | 166 | 266 | 33 | 9 | 289 | 83 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | LAD | 46% | 198 | 176 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 65 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 198 | 279 | 360 | 639 | 162 | 265 | 33 | 9 | 286 | 81 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | LAD | 51% | 210 | 187 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 70 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 195 | 275 | 353 | 628 | 158 | 263 | 33 | 9 | 282 | 78 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1205 | 1072 | 211 | 46 | 0 | 43 | 109 | 400 | 13 | 15 | 5 | 197 | 279 | 360 | 639 | 163 | 265 | 33 | 9 | 287 | 76 | -26 | +1 | -4 | +4 | +26 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 114 | 25 | 0 | 23 | 59 | 216 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 197 | 280 | 360 | 639 | 163 | 266 | 33 | 9 | 287 | 76 | -14 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4359 | 3869 | 745 | 173 | 11 | 139 | 398 | 1476 | 59 | 71 | 14 | 193 | 278 | 351 | 629 | 158 | 266 | 34 | 9 | 281 | 76 | -71 | +5 | -10 | +11 | +68 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 112 | 26 | 2 | 21 | 59 | 220 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 194 | 279 | 355 | 634 | 161 | 268 | 34 | 9 | 281 | 76 | -15 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Great Lakes Loons · 254 PAwOBA .362 → .276 (−86)K% 28.0% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.95% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 35.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.39% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 13.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 9.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 8.10% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .362 → .276; ISO .290 → .218; BABIP .299 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AATulsa Drillers · 130 PAwOBA .314 → .246 (−68)K% 33.8% → 41.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.85% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 41.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 11.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.952 | ×1.042 | 13.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.952 | ×1.042 | 5.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.952 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 7.94% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .314 → .246; ISO .206 → .161; BABIP .228 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Dodgers · 15 PAwOBA .505 → .349 (−156)K% 20.0% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 4.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 45.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 36.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 12.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .505 → .349; ISO .143 → .092; BABIP .636 → .491. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Great Lakes Loons · 533 PAwOBA .325 → .259 (−66)K% 26.3% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.27% | ÷0.980 | ×1.270 | — | — | 34.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.63% | ÷1.023 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 10.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.06% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | 16.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.67% | ÷0.927 | ×0.810 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | 6.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.14% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .325 → .259; ISO .164 → .131; BABIP .277 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 164 PAwOBA .387 → .299 (−89)K% 25.0% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.964 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.46% | ÷0.943 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 12.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.88% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 3.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.072 | ×0.920 | ×0.961 | ×1.030 | 14.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.41% | ÷0.973 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×1.030 | 7.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.35% | ÷0.973 | ×0.910 | ×0.961 | ×1.030 | 2.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.06% | ÷1.072 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 5.43% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 114, 2B 95, 3B 95, K 93, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .387 → .299; ISO .238 → .180; BABIP .309 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Dodgers · 15 PAwOBA .243 → .160 (−82)K% 33.3% → 47.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 47.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 26.67% | ÷0.992 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 16.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.965 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 14.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 96, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .243 → .160; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .167 → .143. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Dodgers · 58 PAwOBA .262 → .192 (−69)K% 20.7% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.69% | ÷0.998 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷0.973 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 6.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 21.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.931 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 106, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .262 → .192; ISO .020 → .015; BABIP .289 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .