Tristan Smith

P Daytona Tortugas

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	6	2	8	11.25	4.22	26.1%	23.9%	—	K 26.1% · BB 23.9% · FIP 3.93
2026	23	MIX2 levels	14	0	24	8.37	8.64	24.0%	26.4%	—	K 18.5% · BB 31.5% · FIP 9.84
2027PROJ	24	MLBCIN	11	0	12	6.05	6.05	21.0%	20.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCIN	9	0	9	5.70	5.58	21.6%	16.9%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsDillon Larsen (age 24) · Jackson Lancaster (age 24) · Triston Polley (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132140vR 148

ERA6.05

FIP6.05

K%21.0%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.0%

Proj IP12

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	8	46	12	11	0	33%	1.3	26.1%	23.9%	2.2%	0.0%	11.25	3.93	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	8	46	12	11	0	33%	1.3	26.1%	23.9%	2.2%	0.0%	11.25	3.93	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	2	8	46	12	11	0	33%	1.3	26.1%	23.9%	2.2%	0.0%	11.25	4.22	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	24	129	31	34	7	0%	1.7	18.5%	31.5%	-13.0%	7.8%	8.37	9.84	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	24	129	31	34	7	0%	1.7	18.5%	31.5%	-13.0%	7.8%	8.37	9.84	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	24	129	31	34	7	0%	1.7	24.0%	26.4%	-2.3%	5.4%	8.37	8.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CIN	11	0	12	51	11	10	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	20.0%	1.0%	3.3%	6.05	6.05	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	21	0	22	91	20	15	3	0%	1.0	21.6%	16.9%	4.7%	3.3%	5.70	5.58	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	9	0	9	38	8	6	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	16.9%	4.7%	3.3%	5.70	5.58	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	39	8	7	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	16.9%	4.7%	3.3%	5.70	5.20	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	152	22	0%	1.1	21.6%	16.9%	4.7%	3.3%	5.70	5.20	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		20	2	32	175	36	52	10	10%	1.6	20.5%	29.5%	-9.0%	5.8%	9.09	8.28	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	13	200	1105	227	326	64	10%	1.6	20.5%	29.5%	-9.0%	5.8%	9.09	8.28	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tristan Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.05	21.0%	20.0%	3.3%	—	5.58	21.6%	4.7%	22	-0.47	—	—	—
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	89
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	88
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	86
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	85
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	82
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	82
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	81
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	81
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	81
Ben Harris L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	23.8%	19.6%	3.8%	.291	4.74	21.1%	0.9%	30	-0.92	3.06	183	80
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	80
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	80
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	79
Caleb Frare L 2017 · 5.45 FIP	24	SU	5.45	22.6%	21.3%	2.9%	.307	3.14	28.0%	15.6%	80	-2.31	2.27	237	78
Max Schuh L 2016 · 6.12 FIP	24	SU	6.12	16.1%	17.9%	3.9%	.389	4.70	19.2%	5.6%	48	-1.42	3.10	118	77
John Parrish L 2001 · 5.98 FIP	23	SU	5.98	18.7%	15.0%	4.7%	.258	3.77	19.2%	7.0%	102	-2.21	3.64	272	77
Cam Booser L 2016 · 6.61 FIP	24	SU	6.61	19.8%	28.0%	3.0%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	314	77
Aaron Brown L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	15.0%	17.6%	1.6%	.348	4.38	19.8%	5.2%	127	-0.58	4.04	269	77
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	77
Yoan Aybar L 2021 · 5.91 FIP	24	SU	5.91	19.2%	16.2%	4.3%	.323	6.04	20.9%	1.2%	41	+0.13	3.41	166	76