Eli Jerzembeck — OGILVIE

Eli Jerzembeck P South Bend Cubs

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%21.6%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CMD3050

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	20	4	36	179	41	27	6	20%	1.8	17.3%	17.4%	-0.1%	4.2%	6.75	6.18	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	20	4	36	179	41	27	6	20%	1.8	17.3%	17.4%	-0.1%	4.2%	6.75	6.18	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	CHC	5	1	14	58	18	6	2	20%	2.8	31.0%	10.3%	20.7%	3.4%	1.93	3.68	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	CHC	15	3	22	121	23	21	4	20%	1.5	19.0%	17.4%	1.7%	3.3%	9.82	5.51	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CHC	5	0	5	23	5	3	1	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.7%	8.9%	3.0%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	41	202	46	30	7	—	—	22.8%	14.8%	7.9%	3.3%	6.51	6.01	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CHC	62	0	66	277	63	32	8	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	3.0%	4.74	4.66	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	63	0	66	280	65	30	8	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	3.0%	4.59	4.51	+0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	63	0	66	280	66	30	8	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.5%	12.9%	3.0%	4.51	4.47	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	62	0	65	276	65	29	8	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.6%	12.8%	3.0%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	60	0	63	268	62	29	8	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.7%	12.6%	3.1%	4.56	4.59	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	CHC	27	0	28	118	27	14	4	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	3.0%	4.74	4.66	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	42	0	44	186	43	20	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	3.0%	4.59	4.51	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	50	0	53	224	52	24	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.5%	12.9%	3.0%	4.51	4.47	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	53	0	56	236	55	25	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.6%	12.8%	3.0%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	53	0	56	236	55	25	7	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.7%	12.6%	3.1%	4.56	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		226	0	237	1002	233	107	30	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	3.0%	4.56	4.16	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	196	90	25	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	3.0%	4.56	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		20	4	36	179	31	31	8	20%	1.8	17.3%	17.4%	-0.1%	4.2%	6.75	6.18	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	22	200	994	172	173	42	20%	1.8	17.3%	17.4%	-0.1%	4.2%	6.75	6.18	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eli Jerzembeck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	21.6%	12.7%	3.0%	—	4.55	23.1%	12.2%	198	-0.37	—	—	—
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	96
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	88
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	88
Corey Black R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	23	SW	4.19	22.1%	13.9%	2.2%	.310	3.56	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.56	139	88
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	88
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	86
Joan Gregorio R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.18	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.69	301	86
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	85
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	85
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	84
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	84
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	83
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	83
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	83
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	83
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	83
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	83
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	83
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	83
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	65	22.9%	11.1%	1.17	4.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81