Eli Jerzembeck
P
South Bend Cubs
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
K%22.5%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 16 | 4 | 32 | 149 | 37 | 19 | 4 | 25% | 2.0 | 18.8% | 14.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.12 | 5.27 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | 65 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 65 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.54 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 100 | 437 | 102 | 49 | 13 | — | — | 23.3% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.5% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.16 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 69 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 68 | 0 | 71 | 299 | 71 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 68 | 0 | 71 | 299 | 71 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 66 | 0 | 70 | 295 | 70 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 64 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 68 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 56 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 241 | 0 | 254 | 1071 | 254 | 100 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.94 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 200 | 79 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 16 | 4 | 32 | 149 | 28 | 22 | 5 | 25% | 2.0 | 18.8% | 14.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.12 | 5.27 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 101 | 25 | 200 | 941 | 177 | 139 | 32 | 25% | 2.0 | 18.8% | 14.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.12 | 5.27 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eli Jerzembeck (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.30 | 23.6% | 14.2% | 212 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 90 |
| Brendan Collins R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 90 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 89 |
| Joan Gregorio R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .269 | 4.23 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 208 | -0.33 | 3.60 | 301 | 86 |
| Parker Curry R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .341 | 4.68 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +1.00 | 3.68 | 256 | 86 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.33 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.09 | 3.96 | 242 | 86 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2028 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 85 |
| Carlos Espinosa R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.33 | 23.0% | 11.0% | 3.2% | .325 | 4.98 | 23.0% | 10.2% | 42 | +0.65 | 3.69 | 247 | 85 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 84 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 84 |
| William Kempner R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .277 | 3.32 | 29.2% | 14.5% | 112 | -0.62 | 3.29 | 173 | 83 |
| Corey Black R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.14 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .310 | 3.60 | 22.1% | 6.0% | 53 | -0.54 | 3.60 | 139 | 83 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 83 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.05 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .309 | 3.93 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -1.12 | 3.71 | 361 | 82 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 82 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.49 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.67 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 234 | +0.18 | 3.21 | 349 | 82 |
| Peyton Pallette R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.86 | 20.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .309 | 3.87 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 101 | -0.99 | 3.80 | 255 | 82 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.31 | 3.10 | 218 | 82 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.56 | 22.6% | 13.0% | 1.3% | .274 | 4.52 | 23.4% | 13.0% | 144 | +0.96 | 3.45 | 292 | 81 |
| Carlo Reyes R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 25.2% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .291 | 4.12 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 117 | +0.02 | 2.79 | 229 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 70 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 1.16 | 4.38 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |