Drew Cavanaugh
C San Francisco Giants| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AAA/A/INTL2 orgs | 223 | .237/.360/.317 | 2 | 0 | 58 | — | .189/.292/.238 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA/AA/A+/ASF | 402 | .264/.402/.453 | 14 | 7 | 85 | — | .212/.321/.347 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA/AASF | 227 | .311/.451/.550 | 9 | 6 | 133 | — | .261/.376/.429 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBSF | 166 | .229/.315/.292 | 1 | 1 | 75 | 0.6 | |
| 2027PROJ | 25 | MLBSF | 155 | .198/.301/.308 | 3 | 2 | 80 | 0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ82% MLB | 26 | MLBSF | 258 | .201/.303/.319 | 5 | 3 | 83 | 0.5 | |
| 2029PROJ82% MLB | 27 | MLBSF | 265 | .202/.303/.320 | 5 | 3 | 83 | 0.5 |
Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 45 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A | San Jose Giants | — | 24 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 348 | 250 | 598 | 357 | 29 | 12 | 276 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Giants Black | — | 40 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 475 | 333 | 808 | 33 | 450 | 25 | 18 | 390 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 35 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 400 | 300 | 700 | 391 | 20 | 11 | 333 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 22 | A | San Jose Giants | — | 154 | 126 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 366 | 333 | 699 | 103 | 338 | 29 | 15 | 326 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 34 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 294 | 267 | 561 | 67 | 300 | 29 | 12 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 53 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 245 | 265 | 511 | 82 | 242 | 28 | 8 | 236 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 56 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 186 | 375 | 302 | 677 | 116 | 259 | 27 | 14 | 329 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | — | 162 | 131 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 46 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 298 | 418 | 496 | 914 | 198 | 398 | 28 | 14 | 397 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | — | 131 | 99 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 293 | 457 | 556 | 1.013 | 263 | 377 | 26 | 21 | 438 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 166 | 144 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 315 | 292 | 606 | 63 | 344 | 30 | 11 | 276 | 75 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +4 | 0.6 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 137 | 112 | 37 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 330 | 449 | 571 | 1.020 | 241 | 425 | 25 | 13 | 445 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 90 | 68 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 279 | 456 | 515 | 970 | 235 | 364 | 23 | 19 | 432 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 166 | 144 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 315 | 292 | 606 | 63 | 344 | 30 | 11 | 276 | 73 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +4 | 0.6 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 24 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 261 | 190 | 451 | 315 | 42 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants Black | — | 40 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 350 | 242 | 592 | 30 | 342 | 35 | 10 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 35 | 31 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 290 | 371 | 290 | 662 | 391 | 23 | 9 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 154 | 133 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 64 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 275 | 226 | 500 | 60 | 300 | 42 | 10 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 53 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 208 | 240 | 448 | 80 | 227 | 34 | 6 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 56 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 178 | 339 | 289 | 628 | 111 | 247 | 32 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 162 | 137 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 58 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 248 | 348 | 409 | 757 | 161 | 345 | 36 | 10 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 131 | 109 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 48 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 202 | 326 | 339 | 665 | 138 | 306 | 37 | 13 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 166 | 144 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 315 | 292 | 606 | 63 | 344 | 30 | 11 | 279 | 75 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +4 | 0.6 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 137 | 117 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 41 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 282 | 382 | 453 | 835 | 171 | 392 | 30 | 9 | 370 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 90 | 74 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 230 | 367 | 392 | 759 | 162 | 334 | 29 | 12 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 64 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 317 | 222 | 540 | 19 | 367 | 39 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 64 | 50 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 280 | 429 | 300 | 729 | 20 | 412 | 27 | 16 | 347 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 223 | 195 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 85 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 293 | 256 | 549 | 62 | 330 | 38 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 223 | 186 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 62 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 360 | 317 | 678 | 81 | 341 | 28 | 14 | 318 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 402 | 340 | 71 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 142 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 209 | 321 | 341 | 662 | 132 | 314 | 35 | 11 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 402 | 322 | 85 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 61 | 110 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 264 | 402 | 453 | 855 | 189 | 348 | 27 | 15 | 380 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 393 | 335 | 85 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 42 | 116 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 254 | 356 | 385 | 741 | 131 | 363 | 30 | 11 | 329 | 109 | +4 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +9 | 2.1 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB RAW | 3 teams | — | 393 | 324 | 89 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 105 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 275 | 394 | 435 | 830 | 160 | 376 | 27 | 13 | 371 | 109 | +4 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +9 | 2.1 |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 64 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 317 | 218 | 536 | 18 | 332 | 39 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 223 | 194 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 85 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 293 | 258 | 551 | 62 | 317 | 38 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 402 | 343 | 71 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 142 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 207 | 321 | 338 | 659 | 131 | 303 | 35 | 11 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 393 | 337 | 85 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 42 | 116 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 252 | 356 | 383 | 738 | 131 | 358 | 30 | 11 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 223 | 194 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 85 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 293 | 258 | 551 | 62 | 317 | 38 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 402 | 343 | 71 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 142 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 207 | 321 | 338 | 659 | 131 | 303 | 35 | 11 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 393 | 337 | 85 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 42 | 116 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 252 | 356 | 383 | 738 | 131 | 358 | 30 | 11 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | SF | 100% | 380 | 329 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 111 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 201 | 304 | 317 | 621 | 116 | 275 | 29 | 10 | 286 | 80 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | SF | 100% | 155 | 134 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 45 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 198 | 301 | 308 | 609 | 111 | 271 | 29 | 10 | 281 | 80 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | SF | 82% | 315 | 273 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 91 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 205 | 306 | 329 | 635 | 123 | 276 | 29 | 10 | 291 | 83 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | SF | 82% | 323 | 280 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 92 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 206 | 306 | 330 | 636 | 124 | 276 | 28 | 10 | 291 | 83 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | SF | 82% | 324 | 281 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 92 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 305 | 329 | 634 | 123 | 276 | 28 | 10 | 290 | 82 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | SF | 82% | 314 | 274 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 89 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 303 | 327 | 629 | 121 | 275 | 28 | 10 | 288 | 81 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | SF | 82% | 305 | 266 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 87 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 205 | 300 | 323 | 623 | 118 | 274 | 29 | 10 | 285 | 79 | -8 | -0 | -2 | +5 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB MLE | SF | 82% | 272 | 238 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 79 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 295 | 313 | 608 | 112 | 270 | 29 | 10 | 279 | 75 | -8 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | SF | 82% | 258 | 223 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 74 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 303 | 319 | 622 | 118 | 272 | 29 | 10 | 286 | 83 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | SF | 82% | 265 | 230 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 76 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 303 | 320 | 623 | 118 | 272 | 29 | 10 | 286 | 83 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | SF | 82% | 266 | 231 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 76 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 202 | 301 | 320 | 621 | 117 | 272 | 29 | 10 | 285 | 82 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | SF | 82% | 257 | 224 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 73 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 202 | 299 | 317 | 617 | 115 | 271 | 28 | 10 | 283 | 81 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | SF | 82% | 250 | 218 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 71 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 201 | 296 | 314 | 610 | 113 | 270 | 28 | 10 | 280 | 79 | -6 | -0 | -2 | +4 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB CTX | SF | 82% | 223 | 195 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 64 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 292 | 304 | 596 | 107 | 267 | 29 | 10 | 274 | 75 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1685 | 1465 | 298 | 57 | 6 | 30 | 172 | 484 | 32 | 13 | 5 | 203 | 301 | 312 | 613 | 109 | 280 | 29 | 10 | 282 | 82 | -40 | +1 | -6 | +34 | +37 | 2.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 565 | 115 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 66 | 187 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 204 | 300 | 313 | 613 | 110 | 280 | 29 | 10 | 282 | 82 | -15 | +0 | -2 | +13 | +14 | 1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3090 | 2670 | 561 | 105 | 9 | 62 | 315 | 943 | 74 | 32 | 10 | 210 | 311 | 326 | 636 | 116 | 296 | 31 | 10 | 290 | 82 | -51 | +1 | -7 | +43 | +47 | 3.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 562 | 118 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 66 | 198 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 210 | 311 | 326 | 636 | 116 | 296 | 30 | 10 | 290 | 82 | -15 | +0 | -2 | +13 | +14 | 1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 137 PAwOBA .436 → .370 (−66)K% 24.8% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.82% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 9.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.38% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 4.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 27.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 10.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 5.64% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .436 → .370; ISO .241 → .186; BABIP .425 → .392. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 90 PAwOBA .419 → .357 (−62)K% 23.3% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 12.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.56% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 4.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 18.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 12.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 5.04% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .419 → .357; ISO .235 → .201; BABIP .364 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Eugene Emeralds · 162 PAwOBA .397 → .326 (−71)K% 28.4% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.40% | ÷1.070 | ×1.350 | — | — | 35.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.58% | ÷0.950 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 10.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.09% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 2.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.59% | ÷1.011 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 27.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.06% | ÷1.048 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 5.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.18% | ÷0.909 | ×0.820 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.06% | ÷0.980 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 5.96% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 82, K 114, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .397 → .326; ISO .198 → .163; BABIP .398 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ASan Jose Giants · 131 PAwOBA .434 → .305 (−129)K% 26.0% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.95% | ÷0.962 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.61% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 13.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.29% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.62% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×0.990 | 21.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷1.138 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×0.990 | 6.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.902 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×0.990 | 1.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.23% | ÷1.358 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 5.38% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 172, 1B 101, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 92, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .434 → .305; ISO .263 → .164; BABIP .377 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 56 PAwOBA .322 → .270 (−52)K% 26.8% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.79% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.962 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 10.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.93% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 7.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.027 | 17.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.992 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 6.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.183 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.42% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .322 → .270; ISO .116 → .088; BABIP .259 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 53 PAwOBA .230 → .191 (−39)K% 28.3% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.30% | ÷1.010 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.55% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.59% | ÷1.030 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 19.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 2.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.938 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 2.30% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .230 → .191; ISO .082 → .063; BABIP .242 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ASan Jose Giants · 154 PAwOBA .318 → .240 (−78)K% 29.2% → 41.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.22% | ÷0.957 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.966 | ×0.690 | — | — | 10.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.60% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.69% | ÷0.961 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | — | 22.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.64% | ÷1.012 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | — | 6.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.972 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.47% | ÷0.959 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.06% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 92, 2B 102, 3B 100, K 91, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .318 → .240; ISO .103 → .074; BABIP .338 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 35 PAwOBA .326 → .306 (−19)K% 20.0% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.081 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.43% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 2.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 39.13% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 39.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.052 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.091 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 118, K 116, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .326 → .306; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .391 → .391. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).