Kyle Robinson — OGILVIE

Kyle Robinson P Lansing Lugnuts

+0.2 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.6 · 2030

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%17.6%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%6.8%

IP120

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.6peak

2030

K†4050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	21	A	Stockton Ports	3	2	7	34	9	3	1	—	—	—	7.71	—	—
2025	22	AA	Midland RockHounds	25	20	121	524	87	53	10	13.1%	11.3%	2.5%	4.54	4.78	+0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	2	1	9	34	5	4	1	—	—	—	2.00	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	OAK	22	22	120	507	89	55	14	17.6%	10.8%	2.8%	4.89	4.89	+0.6
2026 Total	23	MLB	OAK	—	—	129	541	94	59	15	17.4%	10.9%	2.8%	4.69	4.55	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	OAK	25	25	139	587	112	58	16	19.1%	9.9%	2.8%	4.71	4.64	+1.0
2028	25	MLB	OAK	28	28	153	645	129	61	18	20.0%	9.4%	2.8%	4.57	4.50	+1.4
2029	26	MLB	OAK	29	29	160	674	138	63	19	20.5%	9.3%	2.8%	4.50	4.45	+1.5
2030	27	MLB	OAK	30	30	162	686	141	64	19	20.5%	9.3%	2.8%	4.47	4.46	+1.5
2031	28	MLB	OAK	29	29	162	684	140	64	19	20.5%	9.3%	2.8%	4.48	4.49	+1.5
2032	29	MLB	OAK	29	29	158	669	136	63	19	20.4%	9.4%	2.9%	4.51	4.53	+1.4
2033	30	MLB	OAK	28	28	154	649	131	62	19	20.2%	9.5%	2.9%	4.56	4.59	+1.2
2034	31	MLB	OAK	27	27	148	626	125	60	19	19.9%	9.6%	3.0%	4.62	4.67	+1.1
2035	32	MLB	OAK	26	26	142	601	118	59	19	19.6%	9.8%	3.1%	4.70	4.75	+0.9
2036	33	MLB	OAK	25	25	136	574	111	57	18	19.3%	9.9%	3.2%	4.79	4.85	+0.7
2037	34	MLB	OAK	23	23	129	546	104	55	18	19.0%	10.1%	3.3%	4.89	4.96	+0.5
2038	35	MLB	OAK	22	22	122	514	96	53	17	18.6%	10.4%	3.4%	5.01	5.08	+0.3
2039	36	MLB	OAK	21	21	114	481	87	51	17	18.2%	10.6%	3.5%	5.13	5.22	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			30	23	137	592	82	66	15	13.9%	11.2%	2.5%	4.53	4.72	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—			44	34	200	864	120	96	22	13.9%	11.2%	2.5%	4.53	4.72	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Robinson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	17.6%	10.8%	2.8%	—	4.53	19.9%	10.4%	451	-0.36	—	—	—
Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP-	4.80	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	4.97	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.17	4.68	326	93
Tony Dibrell R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.17	347	93
Adam Hill R 2025 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	15.6%	12.6%	2.9%	.297	6.14	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.15	4.99	213	93
Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	15.2%	10.9%	2.4%	.306	4.40	15.8%	1.0%	202	-0.11	3.67	321	93
Wil Crowe R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP-	4.65	15.0%	10.9%	2.6%	.278	4.65	18.9%	9.7%	266	+0.00	4.00	518	92
Chase Cohen R 2025 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.28	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.41	3.54	263	92
Austin Brice R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP-	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.70	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.91	3.45	542	91
Chris Anderson R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP-	4.69	14.4%	11.2%	2.5%	.288	5.43	12.5%	-3.1%	77	+0.74	4.69	204	91
Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	17.9%	10.9%	2.5%	.285	4.64	14.8%	4.8%	153	+0.30	3.44	393	91
Tyler Woessner R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	23	SP-	4.09	16.4%	11.8%	1.6%	.307	5.37	18.0%	3.0%	76	+1.28	4.09	197	91
Linder Castro R 2027 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP-	4.63	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.25	4.25	279	90
Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	16.6%	11.6%	2.1%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	199	90
Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	89
Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	19.3%	10.7%	2.5%	.315	4.02	18.1%	9.4%	296	-0.15	3.77	420	89
Alex Royalty R 2025 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	89
Elijah Dale R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	23	SP-	4.57	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.46	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.89	4.57	140	89
Peyton Olejnik R 2025 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP-	4.19	17.1%	13.2%	1.6%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	89
Jackson Wentworth R 2025 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP-	4.95	16.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.95	124	89
Jordan Jackson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.41	4.10	193	88
Brett Daniels R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.47	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.52	3.95	270	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.6	$14M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.2	$12M	+$10M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.1	$11M	+$9M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.9	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$9M		$69M	+$61M