Kyle Robinson — OGILVIE

Kyle Robinson P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.52

FIP5.52

K%13.2%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%0.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF3045

CTRL5040

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	3	2	7	34	9	3	1	67%	2.3	26.5%	8.8%	17.6%	2.9%	7.71	3.60	—
2024	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	3	2	7	34	9	3	1	67%	2.3	26.5%	8.8%	17.6%	2.9%	7.71	3.60	—
2024	21	A RAW	Stockton Ports	3	2	7	34	9	3	1	67%	2.3	26.5%	8.8%	17.6%	2.9%	7.71	3.67	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	121	524	87	53	10	80%	4.8	13.1%	11.3%	1.7%	2.4%	4.54	4.77	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	121	524	87	53	10	80%	4.8	13.1%	11.3%	1.7%	2.4%	4.54	4.77	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	121	524	87	53	10	80%	4.8	16.6%	10.1%	6.5%	1.9%	4.54	4.05	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	25	24	107	472	99	45	19	96%	4.3	16.4%	11.0%	5.4%	4.8%	5.74	5.74	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	25	24	107	472	99	45	19	96%	4.3	16.4%	11.0%	5.4%	4.8%	5.74	5.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	LAA	1	1	3	12	3	0	1	100%	3.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	8.3%	3.00	5.56	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	LAA	13	12	59	244	55	24	9	92%	4.5	22.5%	9.8%	12.7%	3.7%	3.97	4.47	—
2026	23	AA RAW	LAA	11	11	45	216	41	21	9	100%	4.1	19.0%	9.7%	9.3%	4.2%	8.26	5.02	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	LAA	1	1	8	32	4	4	1	100%	7.7	13.2%	12.9%	0.4%	2.8%	5.52	5.52	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	114	504	103	49	20	—	—	20.5%	9.7%	10.7%	3.9%	5.72	5.73	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	112	471	74	56	13	100%	5.6	15.6%	11.8%	3.8%	2.8%	5.26	5.18	-0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	113	477	82	54	13	100%	5.9	17.1%	11.3%	5.8%	2.8%	5.07	4.98	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	113	477	86	53	13	100%	5.9	17.9%	11.1%	6.9%	2.8%	4.95	4.89	+0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	111	470	85	52	13	100%	5.9	18.0%	11.0%	7.0%	2.8%	4.92	4.91	-0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	108	456	82	51	13	100%	6.0	17.9%	11.2%	6.7%	2.9%	4.97	5.00	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	103	435	77	50	13	100%	6.1	17.7%	11.4%	6.2%	3.1%	5.06	5.13	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	97	409	71	48	13	100%	6.1	17.3%	11.7%	5.6%	3.3%	5.21	5.31	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	48	203	32	24	6	100%	5.3	15.6%	11.8%	3.8%	2.8%	5.29	5.21	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	75	317	54	36	9	100%	5.8	17.1%	11.3%	5.8%	2.8%	5.10	5.01	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	90	380	68	42	11	100%	6.0	17.9%	11.1%	6.9%	2.8%	4.98	4.92	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	95	401	72	44	12	100%	5.9	18.0%	11.0%	7.0%	2.9%	4.95	4.94	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	96	405	73	45	12	100%	6.0	17.9%	11.2%	6.7%	3.0%	5.00	5.03	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	94	397	70	45	12	100%	5.9	17.7%	11.4%	6.2%	3.1%	5.09	5.16	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	89	376	65	44	13	100%	5.9	17.3%	11.7%	5.6%	3.4%	5.25	5.35	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		99	99	587	2478	434	281	74	100%	5.9	17.5%	11.3%	6.2%	3.0%	5.08	4.70	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	148	96	25	100%	5.9	17.5%	11.3%	6.2%	3.0%	5.08	4.70	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		53	46	235	1030	155	114	36	87%	4.4	15.0%	11.1%	3.9%	3.5%	5.18	5.17	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	39	200	878	132	98	31	87%	4.4	15.0%	11.1%	3.9%	3.5%	5.18	5.17	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Robinson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.52	13.2%	12.9%	2.8%	—	5.02	16.9%	5.5%	338	-0.50	—	—	—
Troy Miller R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	12.0%	12.7%	2.5%	.299	5.30	18.3%	8.3%	45	+0.21	5.09	168	91
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	87
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	87
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	87
Jeff Brigham R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP	4.78	14.5%	11.3%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.8%	8.5%	288	-0.98	3.48	620	86
Alex Royalty R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	86
Elliot Morris R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	12.8%	10.4%	1.8%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	102	85
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	85
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	84
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	84
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	83
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	83
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	83
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.6%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	83
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	82
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	82
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	82
Matt Solter R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	14.3%	11.4%	3.5%	.374	4.20	16.4%	4.7%	155	-1.06	3.82	224	82
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	81
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	105	16.9%	11.5%	1.12	5.11
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12