Jace Avina

LF Somerset Patriots
Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 180 lbs AA HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
ETA2030MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421A+NYY397.245/.322/.39910438—.175/.230/.285
202522AA/A+NYY415.260/.373/.42511579—.213/.302/.342
202623AANYY532.254/.352/.467211685—.216/.293/.379
2027PROJMLE24MLBNYY4.213/.286/.3650081-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB25MLBNYY60.215/.289/.3722184-0.1
2029PROJ35% MLB26MLBNYY107.217/.291/.3743285-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
ISO78
wRC+77
Chase%77
wOBA70
Speed64
BB%61
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 9.5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 80%
CompsJordan Beck (age 23) · Brandon Meredith (age 24) · Stefan Trosclair (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†81
AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .286 / .365
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%8
BABIP279
ISO154
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.6M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202219 ACarolina Mudcats — 119102 25425 12423 23 245342471812 225351 3510 353 49 — — — — — —
202219 ROKACL Brewers Blue — 149119 358110 155115 20 2944366301.066 336431 3410 461 80 — — — — — —
202320 ACarolina Mudcats — 399326 7622214 5611817 103 233373442815 209320 3014 367 59 — — — — — —
202421 A+Hudson Valley Renegades — 397351 8624010 321088 41 245322399721 154318 278 320 38 — — — — — —
202522 AASomerset Patriots — 194170 381103 19504 22 224316341657 118297 2610 300 55 — — — — — —
202522 A+Hudson Valley Renegades — 221176 521308 30549 31 295423506929 210367 2414 402 101 — — — — — —
202623 AASomerset Patriots — 532460 11729321 611268 166 254352467819 213304 2411 361 85 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202219 A MLECarolina Mudcats — 119105 17313 9583 23 162248295543 133291 498 240 49 — — — — — —
202219 ROK MLEACL Brewers Blue — 149124 21416 107315 20 169309363672 194307 497 286 80 — — — — — —
202320 A MLECarolina Mudcats — 399343 5615210 3916217 103 163281306587 143258 4110 256 59 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLEHudson Valley Renegades — 397365 641608 181508 41 175230285515 110251 385 224 38 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLESomerset Patriots — 194175 33902 14634 22 189264274539 86283 327 250 55 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLEHudson Valley Renegades — 221187 441007 19729 31 235335401736 166297 339 317 101 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLESomerset Patriots — 532477 10324316 441548 166 216293379672 164277 298 294 85 — — — — — —
202219 ROK MLE2 teams — 268229 38729 1913218 43 166282332614 166322 497 266 66 — — — — — —
202219 ROK RAW2 teams — 268221 6012315 279318 43 271395557951 285391 3510 413 66 — — — — — —
202320 A MLECarolina Mudcats — 399343 5615210 3916217 103 163281306587 143269 4110 256 59 — — — — — —
202320 A RAWCarolina Mudcats — 399326 7622214 5611817 103 233373442815 209320 3014 367 59 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLEHudson Valley Renegades — 397365 641608 181508 41 175230285515 110263 385 224 38 — — — — — —
202421 A+ RAWHudson Valley Renegades — 397351 8624010 321088 41 245322399721 154318 278 320 38 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE2 teams — 415362 7819010 3313513 53 215304351655 135304 338 286 79 — — — — — —
202522 A+ RAW2 teams — 415346 9024011 4910413 53 260373425797 165332 2512 355 79 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLESomerset Patriots — 532477 10324316 441548 166 216293379672 164281 298 294 85 — — — — — —
202623 AA RAWSomerset Patriots — 532460 11729321 611268 166 254352467819 213304 2411 361 85 — — — — — —
202219 ROK MLE2 teams — 268229 38729 1913218 43 166282332614 166300 497 266 66 — — — — — —
202320 A MLECarolina Mudcats — 399340 5615210 3916217 103 165281309590 144258 4110 256 59 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLEHudson Valley Renegades — 397368 641608 181508 41 174230283513 109251 385 224 38 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE2 teams — 415366 7819010 3313513 53 213304347651 134290 338 286 79 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLESomerset Patriots — 532475 10324316 441548 166 217293381674 164277 298 294 85 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A+ MLEHudson Valley Renegades — 397368 641608 181508 41 174230283513 109251 385 224 38 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE2 teams — 415366 7819010 3313513 53 213304347651 134290 338 286 79 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLESomerset Patriots — 532475 10324316 441548 166 217293381674 164277 298 294 85 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLENYY 2% 380342 7217110 291136 83 211285358643 147279 308 288 81 -9 +0 +0 -4 +8 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXNYY 2% 44 0000 010 00 213286365651 152279 250 291 81 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLENYY 23% 260234 491117 20764 62 214288364652 150280 298 292 84 -5 +0 +0 -3 +6 -0.2
202926 MLB MLENYY 35% 305273 591319 24885 73 215290367657 152280 298 294 85 -5 +0 +0 -3 +7 -0.2
203027 MLB MLENYY 40% 321288 621419 25925 73 216290366656 150280 298 294 85 -6 +0 +0 -3 +7 -0.2
203128 MLB MLENYY 44% 328294 631419 26945 73 215289363653 148279 298 292 84 -6 +0 -1 -4 +7 -0.3
202825 MLB CTXNYY 23% 6054 12302 5181 11 215289372661 156280 308 295 84 -1 -0 +0 -1 +1 -0.1
202926 MLB CTXNYY 35% 10796 21503 8312 21 217291374666 157280 297 297 85 -2 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.1
203027 MLB CTXNYY 40% 130117 25604 10372 31 217292373665 156280 288 297 85 -2 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.1
203128 MLB CTXNYY 44% 144130 27604 11412 31 217291370661 154279 288 296 84 -3 +0 -0 -2 +3 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 441397 8520013 341277 94 214288363650 149277 298 296 74 -8 +0 -0 -5 +10 -0.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650585 12529019 5018710 136 214286361647 147277 298 296 74 -12 +0 -0 -7 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 34353053 6121421293 264114587 7029 200283346629 146282 338 278 74 -27 +1 -0 -15 +31 -1.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650578 11627218 5021716 135 201283348630 147282 338 278 74 -12 +0 -0 -7 +14 -0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASomerset Patriots · 532 PAwOBA .354 → .294 (−59)K% 23.7% → 28.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.68%÷1.000×1.220——28.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.47%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0278.24%
HBP% /PA1.50%—×0.850—×1.0271.31%
Singles /BIP19.16%÷1.000×0.970×0.962×1.02718.36%
Doubles /BIP8.68%÷1.000×0.860×0.962×1.0277.38%
Triples /BIP0.90%÷1.000×0.950×0.962×1.0270.84%
Home runs /BIP6.29%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0275.04%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .354 → .294; ISO .213 → .172; BABIP .304 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 221 PAwOBA .403 → .317 (−86)K% 24.4% → 32.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.43%÷0.985×1.310——32.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.57%÷0.984×0.600—×1.0128.37%
HBP% /PA4.07%—×0.770—×1.0123.17%
Singles /BIP25.41%÷0.991×0.870×0.950×1.01221.45%
Doubles /BIP10.66%÷1.014×0.780×0.950×1.0127.88%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.975×0.850×0.950×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP6.56%÷0.969×0.880—×1.0126.03%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 95, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .403 → .317; ISO .210 → .182; BABIP .367 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 194 PAwOBA .294 → .250 (−45)K% 25.8% → 32.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.77%÷0.970×1.220——32.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.79%÷0.977×0.700—×1.0427.31%
HBP% /PA2.06%—×0.850—×1.0421.83%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷0.969×0.970×0.950×1.04219.81%
Doubles /BIP9.17%÷0.953×0.860×0.950×1.0428.19%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.056×0.950×0.950×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP2.50%÷1.030×0.780—×1.0421.97%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 111, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .294 → .250; ISO .118 → .094; BABIP .297 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 397 PAwOBA .316 → .224 (−92)K% 27.2% → 37.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.20%÷0.946×1.310——37.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.06%÷1.099×0.600—×1.0274.52%
HBP% /PA2.02%—×0.770—×1.0271.59%
Singles /BIP21.40%÷1.025×0.870×0.954×1.02717.80%
Doubles /BIP9.88%÷1.070×0.780×0.954×1.0277.06%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.850×0.954×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP4.12%÷1.032×0.880—×1.0273.60%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 105, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 89, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .316 → .224; ISO .154 → .114; BABIP .318 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 399 PAwOBA .358 → .256 (−102)K% 29.6% → 40.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.57%÷0.990×1.360——40.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.04%÷1.018×0.690—×1.0309.80%
HBP% /PA4.26%—×0.780—×1.0303.42%
Singles /BIP18.27%÷1.049×0.920×0.950×1.03015.67%
Doubles /BIP10.58%÷1.090×0.830×0.950×1.0307.88%
Triples /BIP0.96%÷0.900×0.910×0.950×1.0300.95%
Home runs /BIP6.73%÷1.072×0.800—×1.0305.18%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .358 → .256; ISO .209 → .143; BABIP .320 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Brewers Blue · 149 PAwOBA .449 → .286 (−163)K% 34.2% → 49.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA34.23%÷1.005×1.440——49.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.07%÷0.963×0.620—×1.0086.53%
HBP% /PA10.07%—×0.720—×1.0087.30%
Singles /BIP23.53%÷1.024×0.820×0.957×1.00818.16%
Doubles /BIP11.76%÷1.030×0.720×0.957×1.0087.93%
Triples /BIP1.47%÷0.922×0.720×0.957×1.0081.11%
Home runs /BIP14.71%÷1.005×0.780—×1.00811.50%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 84, K 101, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .449 → .286; ISO .336 → .207; BABIP .431 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ACarolina Mudcats · 119 PAwOBA .350 → .240 (−109)K% 35.3% → 49.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA35.29%÷0.977×1.360——49.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.08%÷0.975×0.690—×1.0457.46%
HBP% /PA2.52%—×0.780—×1.0452.05%
Singles /BIP23.33%÷1.034×0.920×0.950×1.04520.62%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷1.036×0.830×0.950×1.0455.30%
Triples /BIP3.33%÷1.150×0.910×0.950×1.0452.62%
Home runs /BIP8.33%÷1.136×0.800—×1.0456.13%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 107, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .350 → .240; ISO .225 → .140; BABIP .351 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).