Jace Avina — OGILVIE

Jace AvinaLF Somerset Patriots

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 180 lbs AA HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION314 act + 209 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .280 / .377

PA209

HR7

K%35

BB%7

BABIP295

ISO170

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	19	ROK	2 teams	—	268	230	36	6	2	9	18	135	18	4	3	157	271	317	588	161	307	50	7	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	2 teams	—	268	221	60	12	3	15	27	93	18	4	3	271	395	557	951	285	391	35	10	413	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	399	348	52	13	2	10	34	171	17	10	3	149	258	284	543	135	251	43	9	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	399	326	76	22	2	14	56	118	17	10	3	233	373	442	815	209	320	30	14	367	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	397	366	59	14	0	7	17	162	8	4	1	161	215	257	472	96	256	41	4	207	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	397	351	86	24	0	10	32	108	8	4	1	245	322	399	721	154	318	27	8	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	415	361	76	19	0	9	34	143	13	5	3	211	301	338	639	127	310	34	8	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	2 teams	—	415	346	90	24	0	11	49	104	13	5	3	260	373	425	797	165	332	25	12	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	NYY	—	314	285	62	14	2	15	24	114	4	7	1	218	288	439	726	221	299	36	8	302	89	-4	+1	+0	-3	+9	0.3
YTD	23	AA	NYY	—	314	275	74	18	2	17	34	88	4	7	1	269	358	535	892	265	333	28	11	388	155	+20	+1	+0	-3	+9	2.7
ROS	23	AA	NYY	2%	209	188	39	9	1	7	15	74	4	3	1	207	280	377	657	170	287	35	7	288	79	-5	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.1
ROS	23	MLB	NYY	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						289	25	0	280	72	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	NYY	—	318	289	62	14	2	15	24	115	4	7	1	215	284	433	716	218	294	36	8	302	89	-4	+1	+0	-3	+9	0.3
TOT	23	AA	NYY	—	523	473	101	23	3	22	39	188	8	10	2	213	284	414	699	201	298	36	7	297	85	-9	+1	+0	-6	+15	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	NYY	23%	524	472	98	22	2	18	39	177	8	7	2	208	279	377	657	169	285	34	7	292	82	-11	+1	+0	-6	+15	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	NYY	35%	538	484	103	23	2	19	41	176	8	8	2	213	285	386	672	174	285	33	8	297	85	-9	+1	+0	-6	+15	0.2
2029	26	MLB	NYY	42%	542	487	104	23	2	19	42	174	8	8	2	214	287	386	673	172	286	32	8	299	87	-8	+1	+0	-6	+15	0.3
2030	27	MLB	NYY	45%	541	485	104	23	2	19	43	173	8	8	2	214	289	388	677	173	286	32	8	300	88	-8	+1	+0	-6	+15	0.3
2031	28	MLB	NYY	47%	537	481	104	23	2	19	43	173	8	8	2	216	291	391	682	175	285	32	8	299	87	-8	+1	-1	-6	+15	0.2
2027	24	MLB	NYY	23%	120	108	22	5	0	4	9	40	2	2	0	204	277	361	638	157	287	33	8	284	76	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	NYY	35%	189	169	37	8	1	7	15	62	3	3	1	219	294	402	696	183	288	33	8	289	80	-4	+0	+0	-2	+5	-0.1
2029	26	MLB	NYY	42%	228	205	44	10	1	8	18	73	3	3	1	215	288	390	678	176	288	32	8	292	82	-5	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.0
2030	27	MLB	NYY	45%	243	218	47	10	1	9	19	78	4	4	1	216	290	394	685	179	288	32	8	293	82	-5	+0	+0	-3	+7	-0.0
2031	28	MLB	NYY	47%	250	224	49	11	1	9	20	80	4	4	1	219	294	397	692	179	287	32	8	291	81	-5	+0	-0	-3	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1034	928	199	44	4	37	81	334	16	16	4	214	289	390	679	176	288	32	8	291	81	-23	+2	-0	-11	+29	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	126	28	3	23	51	210	10	10	3	216	290	393	683	177	292	32	8	291	81	-14	+1	-0	-7	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	4370	3902	775	175	15	136	326	1558	100	65	21	199	277	356	633	157	285	36	7	279	72	-140	+5	-0	-47	+124	-6.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	115	26	2	20	48	232	15	10	3	198	277	353	630	155	285	36	7	279	72	-21	+1	-0	-7	+18	-0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	19	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	119	102	25	4	2	5	12	42	3	2	3	245	342	471	812	225	351	35	10	353	128	+4	-1	—	—	+3	0.7
2022	19	ROK	ACL Brewers Blue	—	149	119	35	8	1	10	15	51	15	2	0	294	436	630	1.066	336	431	34	10	461	211	+19	+0	—	—	+4	2.4
2023	20	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	399	326	76	22	2	14	56	118	17	10	3	233	373	442	815	209	320	30	14	367	139	+18	+1	—	—	+11	3.0
2024	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	397	351	86	24	0	10	32	108	8	4	1	245	322	399	721	154	318	27	8	320	103	+1	+0	—	—	+11	1.3
2025	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	194	170	38	11	0	3	19	50	4	2	2	224	316	341	657	118	297	26	10	300	88	-3	-0	—	—	+5	0.3
2025	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	221	176	52	13	0	8	30	54	9	3	1	295	423	506	929	210	367	24	14	402	166	+17	+0	—	—	+6	2.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	11	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
	/162	664	24	4	242	316	418	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Eric Karroslast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,197 PA	5	2,197	73	13	255	317	418	-19	-17	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	22	4	255	317	418	-5.7	-5.2	1.2	pk7: 4
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	1,036	36	15	213	284	385	-11	+0	0.4	0.4
	/162	664	23	10	213	284	385	-7.1	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jace Avina (OGILVIE)	23	40	50	50	50	213/284/414	201	298	22	10	36%	7%	85	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Buddy Kennedy 2022 · AA	23	41→51	47→50	50	43	211/277/342	131	291	16	12	32%	8%	72	-0.2	221/301/335	114	288	11	8	25%	9%	79	+0.3	233/314/376	143	270	15	6	19%	8%	93	+0.8
✕Jerar Encarnacion 2021 · A	23	42→44	45→55	45	36	209/253/328	119	304	14	6	35%	5%	57	-1.2	206/265/350	144	339	19	7	42%	7%	69	-0.4	225/289/397	172	330	25	6	38%	8%	88	+0.7
✕Clint Frazier 2017 · AAA	22	44→45	47→55	49→50	42	220/279/358	137	304	14	10	31%	7%	76	+0.1	228/283/387	159	298	16	9	28%	6%	86	+0.8	234/305/413	179	297	20	6	27%	8%	98	+0.9
●Jeremiah Jackson 2023 · AA	23	37→47	48→60	48→55	41	195/256/339	145	267	16	12	33%	7%	63	-0.9	222/268/400	178	287	24	15	31%	5%	83	+0.6	235/274/422	187	292	26	15	29%	5%	88	+0.8
✕Jodd Carter 2019 · AA	23	42→41	45	46→45	41	209/266/325	116	286	13	9	31%	6%	63	-0.9	215/286/351	136	293	16	9	30%	8%	78	+0.2	203/288/353	150	269	20	9	31%	10%	76	+0.0
✕Sandro Fabian 2021 · A	23	40→47	45→60	46→45	39	203/262/320	117	279	13	6	31%	6%	59	-1.1	229/269/405	176	263	24	4	23%	4%	85	+0.7	227/275/399	172	253	21	4	20%	5%	82	+0.4
●Joey Curletta 2018 · AA	24	36→46	49→55	48→45	39	190/253/339	149	284	18	6	38%	7%	61	-1.0	211/275/366	155	300	20	5	35%	8%	78	+0.2	206/273/363	157	284	22	2	34%	8%	76	+0.1
✕Wladimir Balentien 2007 · AA	23	40→45	53→55	48→50	39	208/267/380	172	297	21	10	36%	7%	78	+0.2	220/280/387	167	278	20	9	28%	7%	85	+0.7	219/280/398	179	263	21	7	25%	7%	86	+0.6
✕Juan Yepez 2021 · AA	23	45→48	45→60	48→45	41	222/274/344	121	290	12	7	27%	6%	70	-0.3	230/288/430	200	268	27	3	25%	6%	100	+1.7	223/280/416	194	256	26	1	25%	6%	90	+0.8
●Will Middlebrooks 2012 · AAA	23	43→45	46→55	48→45	34	212/254/340	128	319	14	8	37%	5%	61	-1.0	232/274/392	160	293	22	7	28%	5%	83	+0.6	227/272/383	156	276	22	5	26%	5%	76	+0.1
✕Carlos Rincon 2021 · AA	23	37	50→55	46→45	38	194/260/344	150	292	19	5	39%	7%	66	-0.6	211/260/374	163	299	21	6	36%	6%	73	-0.1	200/248/370	171	272	24	4	36%	5%	64	-0.4
✕Travis Demeritte 2018 · AA	23	37→44	48→60	47→50	38	187/249/329	142	292	15	9	40%	7%	56	-1.3	206/271/377	171	301	20	7	37%	8%	79	+0.3	205/271/397	192	291	25	7	37%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Sean Bouchard 2019 · A	23	39→41	43→55	49→50	38	195/247/302	108	280	10	13	33%	6%	48	-1.9	197/253/324	127	295	12	10	36%	6%	56	-1.3	210/314/386	176	278	19	16	30%	12%	96	+0.7
✕Daz Cameron 2020 · AAA	23	40→45	46→55	52→55	42	202/273/338	137	283	13	17	32%	7%	69	-0.4	210/275/344	134	293	13	18	31%	7%	72	-0.2	217/290/380	163	271	19	25	27%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Brennen Davis 2023 · AAA	23	40→41	48→50	43→45	40	200/279/340	140	299	17	7	37%	7%	73	-0.1	188/274/320	132	256	16	9	32%	7%	66	-0.6	185/285/365	180	232	25	4	31%	8%	81	+0.2
●Jorge Bonifacio 2016 · AA	23	41→51	45→55	45	40	209/256/332	123	274	13	5	29%	5%	59	-1.1	235/294/387	152	306	17	4	28%	7%	90	+1.0	245/310/400	155	318	17	3	27%	8%	97	+1.1
✕Richie Shaffer 2015 · AA	24	38	49→55	52→40	43	199/262/347	149	261	16	6	30%	7%	67	-0.5	197/265/350	153	275	18	5	34%	8%	69	-0.4	185/255/331	146	265	19	4	36%	8%	58	-1.1
●Kody Hinze 2010 · A	23	38→44	44→50	46→30	44	193/266/308	115	269	12	3	32%	8%	59	-1.1	216/284/358	142	298	17	2	32%	8%	79	+0.3	212/282/360	147	286	20	1	32%	8%	76	+0.1
✕D.J. Peterson 2016 · AA	24	42→46	50→55	51→40	39	219/268/371	153	290	19	6	31%	6%	76	+0.0	221/267/361	140	291	16	5	29%	5%	72	-0.2	218/262/356	138	285	16	3	29%	5%	65	-0.5
✕Wes Clarke 2023 · AA	23	35→40	50→55	41→40	51	184/288/333	149	262	18	3	35%	12%	76	+0.0	198/298/367	169	310	21	5	39%	11%	88	+0.9	193/298/365	172	291	22	4	38%	12%	86	+0.6